Firstly, 78+28% = 100 so you get 78 chips for every Rs. 100 and not 72.
Secondly, i don’t think they will pass on the entire burden to the customer.
They will probably increase the fixed entry fee, reduce free drinks and food options at the casino table, reduce the number of performers / staff etc. or all of the above.
GST @ 28 is definitely a negative but i think they will overcome without drastically affecting the offline business. Online business is dead with GST @ 28.
Moreover, they will probably review this in 6 months and hopefully by then the MEITY and GST council will be on the same page - by this i mean they will treat games of skill and games of chance differently for the purpose of taxation (as was being explained by Rajeev Chandrashekar recently) With this - poker comes under games of skill (numerous previous court judgements) which contributes significantly to delta’s online and offline business so that should be a positive.
disclosure: invested in delta and also a customer at deltin royale (infrequent)
Reading a.lot about this ’ killing’ type adjectives. In my humble opinion we need to ignore this noise. Why are cigarettes companies still around? So will Delta thrive.
I am not sure if smoking and gambling can be compared. If taxes are a burden, the profits will come down either for the business or for the customers, so if the chance of winning and making money is decreased, participants may decrease. There will always be visitors who can afford, but there exist enthusiasts who want to learn and with time want to be good at it, become skilled, even make a living out of it, there should be a lot of practice along with learning, and if participation becomes costly, such enthusiasts may become less or infrequent. They may restrict themselves to their local establishments.
On a different note, while gambling in one form or another form has existed in our culture since time immemorial, even in the epics, government may want to look good by imposing stricter norms, more so with the election coming up, and with the explosion of social media and tech, no news is regional news, it can have impact elsewhere too. The decision could be modified, and if that happens, price will go up, which now is at the long term support of around 170.
I must say you make a very valid point. I am not comparing smoking to Gambling but comparing the phenomenon of people who used to give up smoking everytime the tax was raised. Finally when it hit the max tax under GST the spectre of tax hike ceased to exist prior to every budget. There is a big possibility the same behaviour will be replicated in case of gambling.
I do agree with the comparison w.r.t to the tax part, but my limited point is that smoking does not involve capital. If I feel rates are hiked, I may smoke 2 instead of 3, there is no burden involved, in fact the opposite happens, there is a relief, a stimulation with the purchase. But with a tax rise where I have to put upfront capital, and what I get to hand to play is decreased, not to mention the odds of winning which for most are against, how can I make money.
The venues of participation should increase, more number of slot machines, low price blackjack etc, just like penny stocks exist. I don’t know if the business is focused more on high stake players, and if true, there will always be such players, so no effect on revenue, but if small players who are concerned with money are also part of the revenue structure, and if these decrease, profits may come down in the proportion of such participation.
The selling is less compared to the previous month for now, so maybe investors are waiting for a reversal or respite.
Recently visited Goa .the entry gate rush has reduced
But most casinos have structured entry fee with tokens in a way to force people to play more As a result more rush on tables
Food /drinks offerings have shrunk
The light and pomp in front of casinos hs reduced
Cost cutting is obvious
For information only
I had visited goa many times , when I go to casino I don’t have any mentality that i will win. I know at the end of day I will loose everything I bet on. I go more of a fun and experience. So in my opinion I don’t think there will be much impect for a average person who go there only for fun. Only and only anti point i was thinking is that those large players who play around 10 lakh or more can go to Nepal or macau for play as they won’t have 28 percent tax implications which can be less than cost of travel .
but later found that there is high tax 35 percent in macau as well ,so I am pretty sure there will be zero impect on its buisness.
I was also going through delta corp concall and got a sense it’s more of a personal relationship buisness ( they provide free accommodation to key customer) so that again will lead to less affect specially in big customer segments.
I find this is a huge opportunity to get in delta , as highest money is made on peak of passimissiom
Difference is that 35% tax is on Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) which is the moot point. As you stated house makes most of the money on which it’s paying the GST. What is important to understand is how much % of total coins bought ends up being GGR. Hopefully some of it is asked and addressed in the upcoming concalls to get better perspective of how things might play out especially in terms of whether it leads to a significant reduction in revenue.
Technically it has to hold 170-175 range. Stage analysis would suggest that it’s still in stage 4 so would want it to consolidate here without breaking lows and start showing some strength
States banning or increasing taxes on gambling on ad-hoc basis will continue to be the biggest risk for this stock.
So seems a gamble right now. Again gamblers don’t like to play it safe
i agree with you . but frankly speaking these terms like Gross gaming revenue (GGR ) etc are too complex term for me . and dont understand too well
but one thing i am sure about this that Govt is also one of biggest partner in any buisness in india . if it feels that they are loosing tax revenue to other countries like macau or nepal , definately they will reverse or modify there decision .
i have seen this in buisness of ciggrette when they felt that organised market is loosing market share to unorganised market they stopped increasing tax
same is import duty on Gold , when they became aware that high import duty leading to smuggling they reduced import duty
my point here is that major money is made in extreme passimisim and when there is no way out and when everyone start calling buisness as its end .
just see what people are taking about PVR just few months back that it will be doomed due to OTT , if anyone made investment there could have easily made around 30 percent from there .
But the examples of cigarettes, gold and multiplexes are not the same as gambling, as cigarettes, gold and multiplexes are available to all, but not every state has casinos, and gambling facilities, legal ones, so the loss of revenue in the form of taxes to the governments will be very less compared to tobacco, alcohol or petrol.
Looks like it is still a wait and watch for now, from the looks of price and volume.
its a niche industry , in most of world these kind of industry exist in just one or two states , be it las vegas , macau etc . with these kind of industry tourism also develop. so i dont think that govt will loose opportunity to make a tourism hub in india like other developed country . but you may be right it is too premature to comment what will happen . there if off course uncertainty but i never made money in certain envoirnement . its always a calculated risk which gives you money . off course position size should always be in your comfort zone
But the government can’t let the industry to die as most of the revenues of the state comes from Casino and casino being a sin industry would grow irrespective of taxation as per last concall commentary there won’t be impact to 80% of casino business as small players would still play and big players whose earnings is from casino would have no other option apart from going to Nepal or macau but in macau,ggr taxation is around 40% which is too high.
