I request your opinion on my current portfolio. I plan to hold this core portfolio for at least 5-7 years and may add more of these names depending on the market sentiments. My current portfolio is as under:
Stock Weightage
HDFC Bank 21%
ICICI bank 9%
Maruti 17%
M&M 11%
ITC 14%
Power Grid 14%
HDFC 10%
HCL Tech 5%
I would request your valuable opinion on this portfolio. I am tracking some other stocks like Escorts, Jubilant foodworks, Federal Bank and VIP Industries which I plan to add on any downfall. Since I don’t understand pharma at all hence I have not added any pharma stock in the portfolio. I am aware that some stocks may be facing some headwinds as of now however I plan to hold this portfolio for at least next 5 years hence I would request your valuable comments keeping in view my holding period. The target is to generate 14-15% CAGR for next 5 years.
Thanks for your revert. I have been building this portfolio for last 9-12 months. Average entry prices are as under:
HDFC Bank
1,729
ICICI bank
351
Maruti
7,638
M&M
870
ITC
242
Power Grid
186
HDFC
1,891
HCL Tech
872
My portfolio was well in green till end-August however has got impacted in last couple of months. However I am fine to hold for next 5 years infact added a bit in Maruti and HDFC to bring the cost down to these levels.
Large Caps have one problem… If they are bought at high valuations, then the returns over the next five years are unimpressive. Sometines regretable.
Why don’t we show enthusiasm when large caps are available at cheaper valuations?
If one wishes to buy-in strategically then he could get in sector wise. Now, pharma and energy are beaten, buy those. IT was beaten last year.
Else if one wants to enter all at one go, then it is best he waited for the tide to recede.
Speaking stock wise, there are better options in banking than ICICI.
Many thanks for the helpful feedback. ICICI bank, I bought due to its cheaper valuations compared to Kotak and Indusind. After management reshuffle and likely peaking of NPAs for the bank, I am of the opinion that bank can narrow the discount to other private banks. As far as Indusind and Kotak are concerned, no doubt they are good banks however I have HDFC bank which is a proxy to well managed private banks. Actually, I don’t want to increase my portfolio to more than 10 hence only picking market leaders
Many thanks for the comment Amit. You are right regarding valuations. My opinion is - its very difficult to take a call for an unpolished retail investor whether the price will fall or not and hence I started picking up at each level. I followed the policy of picking the stock first and price later. Then, I keep on adding to these names at every 3% price fall although quantity differs. Regrading your comment on pharma, I don’t understand the sector at all and hence don’t want to buy something which I need to be dependent on just reports and market comments. Regrading IT, I started adding HCL during those times and stopped buying once the price moved above 950.
@dgoel25 don’t you think averaging at 3% fall is being too close… I also get tempted to do that, but as far I read, at least 10% fall should make averaging attractive. Just a thought on buying on dips…
You are right about that however the names which I have seldom fall 10% and I never know what is the bottom. Hence, I keep on adding small quantities (~ 6-8% of existing holding) at every 3% fall. This way, if the price falls further, I keep on adding (with higher quantities) and if price moves up I stop adding.
It would be very helpful if I can have fellow members’ views about Escorts (planning to start adding around 600, being a strong brand name in Agri equipment and cheaper valuations), Federal Bank (planning to start adding around 75, new management team joined from HDFC Bank last year and seems to have cleared the legacy issues now), Jubilant foodworks (around 1100, high growth with still growth available in Tier 1 cities as witnessed from SS growth with lot of untapped market demand in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities) and VIP Industries (around 400, well known brand name with affordable travel products together with tailwinds in terms of market moving from unorganised to organised sector)
I too do that, buying if it falls by a certain percentage, I average out.
How do you arrive at the purchase price for the first time, do you have a valuation process? After you have bought, and if it falls, it is easy to tell ourselves that we are buying a good company, and it has fallen, so let’s buy more.
I have overpaid for many stocks, and now looking at even 30-40% losses in some, although the invested amount was small. So, despite big names, if you overpay either they will fall or you have to wait for sometime, price correction or time correction will happen. I have seen the first correction, yet to see the second as I have been in the market for just 1 year. Although there are exceptions to certain kind of businesses which demand high P/E, many think the growth story will sustain for many more years or they are quality stocks etc.
So I am cautious of the price I pay now, slowly learning the valuation aspect of investing.
You have a large cap focussed portfolio with predominant weightage to financials to the tune of 40%. Autos constitute 28%. If I were you I would focus more on consumption related companies as there is likely to be a huge surge in consumption as people’s spending power keeps increasing. And among that too I would prefer discretionary spending as I see people splurging a lot of money on things they can do without. or dont really need.
If the portfolio is designed for next 5-7 years you can add a few high quality midcaps too.
Many thanks for your comments. Honestly, I picked up these stocks factoring in past track record, market position, management quality, business stability and disclosure details. Regarding consumption plays, I fully agree with you however none of the quality consumption play is trading below +1x SD valuations which doesn’t give comfort to me. The valuations may expand in the future but i don’t want to pay higher than historical averages that too when I am building a long term portfolio. I am keenly watching Jubilant foodworks in that space however i feel it remains highly priced above 1000-1100 range.
Regarding midcaps, I second your opinion however the major thing with midcaps is management quality and related party transactions. Could you please advise me some good midcaps which you are holding or looking to buy.
Fantastic list of stocks. Need to add the missing sectors that are down and out like IT in particular. Auto Ancillaries, and also the Conglomerates like RIL. You might be too highly weighted in Banks and hence lightening up might be good also. HDFC is great to hold, but there are many other financial companies that are down and out and can be looked at to get a better return in 1-2-3 years.
ICICI Bank, SBI, and other NBFCs as you feel comfortable. Remember there will be more cockroaches coming out of this story but some of those are real and some are not. There are a lot of loan providers that are confirming in Conf Calls that their % allocation is very little to the troubled waters. In either case, ICICI was a great buy during all of the challenging times although it has not moved up much.
Some of the auto ancillaries like Minda / Sundaram / Amara / Exide are some thoughts to look into. Looking at the autos with Bajaj Auto, Maruti, Hero are also some to look into. And, finally, ideas like Persistent and HCL are good one for IT. LIC Housing is also one that I like getting into and after looking at some other ideas, check the charts before you get into any of them.
or dont really need.