I have found some more information about the competitive landscape.
Comments
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RCF is investing in brownfield AN melt (not solid HDAN/LDAN) expansion. National Fertilizer has two lines of AN melt production, each is 119,000 tonnes. Currently only one line is in use. I’ve taken the full capacity here.
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Chambal Fertilizer has decided to use excess ammonia in production of TAN. No details yet on product mix (AN melt or solids). This has been announced in Jan 2022, environment clearance has not been obtained yet.
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Deepak Fertilizer will still enjoy the lion’s share of demand. The time between their capex coming online (Q2FY25) and Chambal Fertilizer’s capex coming online and achieving full utilization (2025+) should be the highest for their margins. As of now, none of the others are in TAN solids, TAN is still considered a byproduct for them.
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This gives us more details to track, especially if Deepak’s/Chambal’s capex runs late. All data assumes 100% capacity utilization by all players. In reality, production is much lower. 700-800k tonnes were produced annually in between FY18-FY21.
On the matter of Q3FY22’s results, I expect this to be the peak quarter for the chemical segment before the ammonia production comes onstream, and FY23 should see single digit topline growth in this segment. This is because of TAN running at 110% capacity utilisation. Further sales will come from inventory (if at all), and sale of lower margin products. Bottom line will change depending on margins (of TAN and Nitric acid), and whether fertilizers can recover to 10%+, and the effects any subsidies may have.
Inviting comments if anyone thinks this is conservative 
will write an update after the concall.