Pfc/Rec goes crazy. From last week’s update, pfc fell from 211 to 200 in 2 days and then moved up to 218 in next 3 trading days. Crazy moves and upmove continues.
GLS has fallen quite a lot from the 620 it reached a few weeks back, today it was up a bit. (572) Glenmark vs GLS has moved a lot. Earlier GLS used to be above Glenmark by 15 perc now reverse is true!!
Kama holdings unexpected spike of 4 perc today (srf is only going down!!) Still decent valuation for Kama Holdings
Even sjvn and ntpc have given 50 percent plus returns!! Any investing based on value couldnt have given negative returns.
The biggest catch I missed on was PSU banks. But the train has already run its course. No use introspecting it now.
Are there any other sectors or stocks which are hyper undervalued even now? Can’t seem to find any except perhaps paper? I need to understand the industry better though
Better to evaluate against other options available. There are many relatively quality cos like Manappuram. Even Axis bank is available at 2x P/B and 12x pe. It’s upto each one of us decide what we’re comfortable in the end.
Just wanted to highlight that there may be better opportunities.
Yeah Manappuram, Axis and Indus looks compelling to invest in Finance category. Even HDFC Bank and Kotak Bank which have historically managed NPAs well are available at reasonable valuations. I have taken small positions in all of them (except Manappuram, was tracking it at 110-115 to buy, but missed buying it and couldnt make up mind to buy it at 120 seeing it at 110 once!!)
The only issue here is a. I am already overweight on financials, still have half the PFC, b.) Will NPAs start climbing? Loan growth was high, interest rates are high now, perfect receipe for NPAs, but we are not seeing any stress yet.
Just went through the Valuepickr forum for Rajest Exports, and the company is shady to a T!!
Promoters never deliver on any promise. They were saying in 2005 they will increase margins, also in 2010, also in 2015 and also in 2023. Margins have fallen from 2.5 % to less than 1 %!!
Low Dividend payout. Very low compared to earnings.
Tax rate of 4 percent!! Dont really get it. How?
The financials are good, but how much can be trusted is the question. Please let me know if
I made a mistake in above 3 points.
I come across this company through Promoter interview. I was surprise to know this is one fo the fortune 500 company from India.
their margin with very thin as they are in Gold refinening. the positives are
they are in the business for almost 30 years. positives
very tradingnal family run business with operationally very efficient.(they are lowest gold refiner in the world)
lasty 5-6 yeras they have reduced their debt significantly 8000 cr to 750 Cr
Reservers increased
No capital raised
Negatives
no PR & investor call just focus on business
very limited information available in public domain
got selected in PLI scheme of govt (for batter manufacturing - this is positive as well negating (total diversification in no related business) - they have good balancesheet to diversify & if they do this businees as efficiently as they are doing gold refininig then its good marging business than their current business
Over all : available ar the same price of 2015 its long consolidated . I think very minimum downside and good potential upside.
To be selected for PLI scheme for battery looks like a piece of good news to me although its diversification in unrelated business. Fundamentally its the cheapest it has been in past 8 years, but my issues with the company remains same - #1. Promoter promises but doesnt deliver repeatedly. #2. 0.2% dividend yield (5% of profits, and profits are not increasing yoy!!).
#3. Tax rate of 3% (biggest issue for me, I want to understand this point specifically)
This is a very controversial selection but my 2 proposals for a value portfolio are Wockhart and Spicejet…I think these 2 are appropriate because they are both very well known brands…Of course they both have huge finance problems but their market caps reflect this…
SPICEJET is valued at 50th of Indigo market cap and yet has 1/6th of the amount of planes of indigo…It is also a leader in carrying the poorer indian traveller an area that has huge potential in my view as train and road infrastructure still lagging compared to other countries…I feel it is a company that will always have interest from abroad.
WOCKHARDT has definitely had huge problems but still is a well known brand name and has potentially huge prospects in the antibiotic space.it also makes reliable revenues in the API space…of course it made a mistake during covid getting in bed with russians in the Sputnik area but Covid was a very stressful time for companies…
Of course neither of these companies are too big to fail but their prospective value is tremndous…
I think a lot of value companies are not value anymore after their recent rises
Caveat…I am building up a 1 crore rupee imvestment each in these 2 companies…nearly there !
Spicejet is up 18 percent today…I think there is value certainly up to 46 rupees which is the effective price that the leesees took…I feel Spicejet is turni g the corner anyway
It seems like the time is ripe to trim the positions significantly and go heavy on cash. Park some in long term debt instruments and some in short term which can again be diverted to stock market if and when it eventually crashes.
Can go as high as 50-80 percent in cash in next few days. Can divert funds to bigger companies like hdfcbank (and kotak/ICICI)
Honestly, I have started investing since 2 years now.
But what I see is a market frenzy with overvaluation round the corner. The stocks in the portfolio have done much better than overall market at large, but they will also fall when market cools off.
I would request someone who is investing for a long time regarding what they do in situations like 2017-18 bull run.
I personally invested in HDFC Bank 15%-20% of the profit from small caps since it is large-cap, corrections won’t be bad and it was a fair price, I’ll average the small caps if correction happens by selling large cap I kinda feel correction in small-cap and bit movement in large-cap
Absolute carnage in midcaps/smallcaps today.
IRFC didnt fall much (was almost upper circuit in morning though, so fell 10 percent from top)
Absoute carnage in other stocks. PFC and Rain Industries hurts the portfolio most.
