The cuts are eviscerating aid to groups like the United Nations Population Fund, which says its flagship program on family planning for women and girls will lose 85 percent of its funding, or $253 million, from Britain this year. The program’s executive director, Natalia Kanem, describes the cuts as “devastating.”
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/10/world/europe/g7-uk-foreign-aid-coronavirus.html
Cancellation of award of order from Uttar Pradesh Medical Supplies Corporation
Limited for supply of "COVID - 19 Antigen Based Rapid Test Kits
Receipt of a new order by Cupid from UNFPA. Order value Rs. 16 Cr
7682574a-d0ad-4595-8a9b-0052167b23fb.pdf (574.3 KB)
From the last con-call, Veru is not ready to talk to Cupid. Cupid expects that Veru is talking to some male condom competitor like Durex for this sale.
That seems to be the case.
But Veru-FC2 is in a worse financial position than Cupid. And once Cupid enters the U.S. market, they can easily wrestle market share from them due to the lower cost structure of producing in India.
What I am cautious about is, however, whether any other Private player is looking to enter the Global B2G market via this acquisition. That would be a considerable development and one worth tracking.
Regardless of all this, I doubt the UNFPA or other Donor bodies will allow a monopoly situation in this market (It’s their loss after all). So my sense is that Cupid will continue to do good business, provided the market keeps growing — which it is at this moment.
I did not know that Cupid has started sharing investor presentation:
Don’t know the reason for drop in net profits. From the results comparison with previous quarters, cost of ram material seems to have gone up substantially.
Earnings Call Transcript
Award of order.
Award of South African Govt Order.
Cupid has been an example of a stock testing investor patience. A look at the chart of Cupid indicates that it has been in a price range of 200 to 270 since Sep 2020, a matter of nearly 16-17 months. And currently closer to its lower price range at 215. A classic case of where not to waste your energy.
This problem happens when a company operates in a very narrow niche and there too cannot show consistent growth. Investing in these kind of names chews up a lot of capital usually without much return and tends to prevent one from investing in a better idea where growth triggers are clearly visible.
As investors, we have a lot of options to choose from. During bull markets one should endeavour to make the most of opportunities because when the inevitable bear market returns, most portfolios will give up returns to varying degrees and if one has batted well during bull market these drawdowns become less painful.
Many a times I see investors stuck on ideas and their investments even when the writing is clearly on the wall. One look at Cupid was enough to convince that this was a one (or few) trick pony. In other instances, I can cite example of Neuland where results were not coming through inspite of fancy management commentary about so called blockbuster molecules and what not. Even charts were indicating a clear downtrend. In these situations, either one has to get out totally or reduce allocations to less meaningful levels, so that maximum capital is available to ride companies where growth visibility and predictability is very strong.
Excellent Hitesh ji for two wonderful examples which i personally also went through
Cupid i entered in mid 2020 and realized this and fortunately got out very soon
One of the ways to get money in markets to realize your mistakes faster and correct them as fast as one can
Another example is Neuland which I missed to enter around 1200 when stock was running up and with all the commentary, I thought I missed out. Fortunately i did not chase and when results turn out opposite , did not buy corrections ( after i understood all growth is factored in at 2500 odd levels)
Still tracking Neuland from 1 year or so and I feel not chasing overhyped stocks stands vindicated
So two lessons
Exiting fast when you understand whats wrong is one of least admired skills
Do not chase hyped stocks until one understand it completely --if its gone, let it be gone
P.S. do let me know if i need to delete this post
Just when we were berating Cupid, it went up with a big gap up between 216.5 to 224 and closed above its 200 dema. 
Commentator’s curse I guess. 
Friday close was at 229. Need to see how above gap up holds in terms of support on declines. Below these, 205 is a very strong support. I guess that’s where fundamental investors find value.
Writing on this thread has piqued my interest in this company and nowadays I look at its chart off and on. For someone with a question on what is medium term breakout level, its a close and consolidation above 265.
this is one of the outcome of board meeting:
“The board has considered and approved the sale of 11,65,740 Equity shares (40% otpaid-up Equity share capital) and 18,46,154 compulsory convertibte Debentures (40% of company,s ccD’s) along with transfer of management control of an associate company seloi Healthcare Private Limited.”
“The board has considered and approved the mutual termination of service provider and Licensing Agreement executed between cupid Limited and lnvex Health private Limited dated 5th November, 2020 due to other business commitments of the later party. Further, after the said termination, cupid Limited would manage the entire lvD diagnostic business”
Not sure of the impact.
Concall Notes
Expected sale from this division will be around 50 crs.
Company has Cash & liquid investments of 72 crs. and will consider buyback after calculating for working capital requirements for IVD business.
Current order book of 141 crs. Out of this 75 crs. is for female contraceptives.
Got new order of supplying 100 crs. worth of contraceptives to South Africa. Out of this 70 crs. is for female contraceptives.
Next quarter Revenue forecast- 40 crs.
The prices of the Company’s two main raw materials: latex & silicon oil have stabilised.
Tanzania tender is to be awarded in March and Brazil in April.
Company has now added IVD service experience to the list of CEO requirements.
Conclusion:
Company really seems to be in complete shambles when it comes to execution.
When it comes to the appointment of CEO, it seems like they are in living in some kind of dream world where they will be able to find a complete all rounder at such a low incentive.
The projections never seem to come true.
Company is deep Value company and that is the only reason it is even worth investing.
Verdict from business end: The business topline looks stable. Margins did take some hit, but expecting a good recovery in next FY.
If you consider all the points(business+management) in valuation, the company is appropriately valued and I don’t expect any rerating to happen until the management delivers. (Either in IVD or in succession planning).
Disc: Invested, not a buy/sell reco.
Cupid Limited Q3 FY-22 Earnings Conference Call”
Just leaving this here for reference.
UNFPA Female Condoms Pre-qualification Process: https://www.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/resource-pdf/Female%20Condom%20Generic%20Specification%20EN_1.pdf
UNFPA Pre-qualification list (Male Condoms): https://www.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/resource-pdf/Prequalification%20List%20for%20Male%20Condoms_Feb%202022.pdf
UNFPA Pre-qualification list (Female Condoms): https://www.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/resource-pdf/Female_condom_prequalification_list_15_Sep.pdf
Order from Tanzania
Good order. Provides stable topline visibility for near and medium term. But this is all male condom order so can expect low margin.
