Can someone from the industry help us understand at what BOPP margin would a pure play commodity player reach breakeven for EBITDA?
If commodity BOPP margins stay at Rs 8-10, and pure play players witness losses at these levels - we should witness some shutdowns at least.
Cosmo could see a good Q1 and a good FY25 with increasing spreads compared to last year.
how can we get the daily prices & trends for BOPP, BOPET, Polypropylene - Domestic & International.
I generally follow the prices published by Jindal Poly. The link is JPFL Films: Price List If there is a better source, please suggest. Disclosuree: Invested. Views Biased.
you may use this.> Commodities - Live Quote Price Trading Data
I think the domestic rate one can get from suppliers RIL,ONGC,IOCL,HPCL-Mittal Energy Limited (HMEL). but The link will fairly give an international price idea with 2% variations from actual deemed prices in india.
i can find Polypropylene prices. but can’t find BOPP & BOPET in the above link.
BOPP is made using Polypropylene as base.
BOPET is made using Polyester chips as base.
If you can find price trend and pattern for polyester chips you can refer to it.
Folks,
So, here’s a simple idea from my pattern-loving brain: if we can find companies exporting flexible PP/PE packaging (no IBC, no corrugated, no rigid). I hear (I made sure, I wasn’t dreaming in these days of imaginative bull theories 
) most of these exporters have their order books full till Dec-24, so their export revenues might go up by 30% from last year. Maybe it’s because of shipping uncertainties or European demand finally waking up from its nap.
Anyone know how much of CosmoFirst’s revenue comes from flexible packaging exports? The trick is to find companies with significant export revenue. Can you name any ? They might have some strong quarters ahead. Or do you guys think this is already known to certain audience, since prices already started moving last month?
D-Tracking.
Thanks, but how do you make sense out of the raw data?
Large quantities being sold by Directors.
Price has been very volatile… Cant make sense if something is wrong or just mkt movement.
Heard that BOPP prices have been falling again, reflecting in share price
Because bopp film price was correcting.
I think, bopp price dip is seasonal and corelated to PP prices.This is usual phenonomena during July-Aug.if aomeone has obsereced price trend New PP prices pls suggest if my iunderstanding needs recheck. prices shall stabilise and rise before festive season.
D-no cosmo holding…looking for flexible packaging exporters for study.
As per company concall Q1 FY25,
BOPP Margins has improved from rs. 12 per kg to rs.19 per kg… management is foreseeing that, this may continue further due to increase in demand domestic as well export. their speciality films has better realization and export demand increased.
Chemical business is doing good and have double digit EBITA margins.
Zigly may take some time and incremental stores are happening according to plan. GMV is 4 add crores per month.
Rigid packaging ( plastech ) will contribute topline to by Q4 FY25. Window films commercialization will b by FY26.
Debt is at 600 odd crores which will come down by FY26.
Many new initiatives and products are on track and have to be monitored carefully
Concall Notes: Q2 FY2025 (Source Screener.in)
Specialty Sales:
BOPP Films Margin:
### Outlook and Growth Initiatives:
Future Sales Expectations:
Specialty Chemicals Subsidiary:
Packaging Initiatives:
New Production Lines:
### Petcare Division - Zigly:
### Capital Expenditure and Debt Management:
### Market Positioning and Competitive Advantages:
### Challenges and Management Optimism:
### New Developments:
### Summary of Insights:
It seems KMPs (Director, CFO, Business head) are consistently exercising their ESOPs and subsequently selling in open market - hence making a quick money.
Wondering if CFO himself claim during concall that bright days are ahead in 2-3 years (reason being multiple catalyst like SCF, PPF, Rigid Packaging, Specialty chemical subsidiary, Zigly etc. will start helping) - then why so hurry in selling the exercised ESOP.
Is there any red flag in this pattern, inputs from fellow investors requested, please.
Disc: Invested.
Once again Director (Anil Kumar Jain) offloaded ESOP shares in open market.
Not sure if Anil Kumar Jain (director) & Neeraj Jain (Group CFO) are related party (like father-son etc.) - but these two persons are getting cheap shares (in the form of ESOPs) and selling high in open market.
Disc: invested, considering my thesis that BOPP/BOPET turnaround to happen in coming one to two years, and Mr. Market will give better exit opportunity.
updated on 11 Dec 2024.
Once again Jain & Jain in action … get ESOPs and offload in open market.
Cosmo First Introduces Revolutionary Paint Protection Films to Safeguard Vehicle Exteriors with Lifetime Warranty
Much needed (catalyst) segment for above average growth.
“Garware Hi Tech Films Ltd” is a listed Indian champion in this segment. Recently, when I was at a car workshop and enquired about PPF to workshop owner - he offered the solution as Garware PPF only.
In last 2 years, Garware has been almost 10X (confession - my minimal understanding on this segment, excited me to just get double from 550 to 1100).
Even if Cosmo Films - is able to achieve a fraction of what Garware has been able to achieve - substantial returns can be made in it.
Disc: Invested in Cosmo, no position in Garware (as on date).
Once again massive selling by insiders, including promoters, Jain & Jain, CEO, and other senior officials) during last week - for a total of approx. 11 Lakh+ shares which is approx. 4% of issued share equity.
Share price first skyrocketed (upside), then nosedived (downside).
Who is the buyer - no clarity yet.
