You need to take this information with a pinch of salt as most of the people who attended parties with her were high profile such as ex CM, Ministers,MLAs top people of administration. Since there has been lot of adverse publicity, there is a possibility of hiding facts.
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If any one having Motilal Oswal releases recent fall report…Please share…
can you put more detail on which report you want to have access to ? they generally give daily reports on market outlook e.g http://ftp.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Marketdiary/VELOCITY/MOStMarketOutlook24thMarch2020.pdf
Government has started preparing for worse. They have prepared a detailed roadmap to deal with surge of cases. There are three phases of the action plan , in first phase of plan government hospitals ( as they are already doing) will be engaged. In 2nd phase (already started) private hospitals will start admitting corona patients. In 3rd phase government will take over all private hospitals. They have started looking for those private hospitals which are almost non functional and could be easily converted to corona hospitals. I just hope the 3rd phase is not required at all. Keeping my fingers crossed. I am not sure how long hospitals will keep on avoiding non corona cases.
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For India this is a lost decade as far returns are concerned bcos valuation of markets in India is trading below 2007 levels for large companies and for small and midcap it’s even worse.
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I ain’t no valuation expert, but his comparison seems to be flawed for multiple reasons.
- For one, he is comparing the bull market peak (2007) to the current levels which saw a rapid decline. The comparison should be either between
2007 vs Jan 2020 valuations
or
2009 valuations against the current numbers.
-
Large companies became much larger in the last decade which obviously results in lower growth percentages and lower valuations. For example, HDFC revenue is not growing at the same rate as it was a decade ago. It share price CAGR closely following its revenue/profit growth before this black swan event.
-
Also, the market is still giving much higher valuations for the companies that are growing at much higher rate. For example, the Bajaj Finance stock CAGR was ~70% in Jan, 2020 while its revenue grew at 40% and profit at 60% in the same time frame. Even after almost 50% decline in the stock price in
1 month, its stock CAGR is 55%.
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Top Indian Immunoligist…Dr Gobardhan Das…out with a detailed paper today.
BCG vaccine effectiveness vs Covid-19
Australia , Belgium, Netherlands…out with similar papers.
Countries where BCG was not mandatory-
US
Spain
Italy
Belgium
Neterlands
Iran- made compulsary after 1984
China- Skipped BCG for 10 Yrs during cultural revolution under Mao.
These countries have one thing in common- highest death rates.
BCG…in all likelyhood boosts immunity against COVID-19.
Effects taper with age…obviously.
Oldies- can get a refresher shot.
No wonder … kids ( fresh with BCG )…were not dying!!!
We may be out of this shit sooner than we think.
Fingers crossed !!!
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Please give reference to this news. There was a paper in sciencemag
But can you please give link to the paper by Mr. Das?
There is no paper attributed to Dr. Das.
WRT the 1st linked article he had this to say "This paper supports what I said. Our young population may have less risk. BCG immunity fades away with age and thus susceptibility may vary in elder group. Three things in favor; (i) Early lock down; (ii) existing immunity; (iii) summer is in corner. "
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Dr. Fauci: “Unless we get this globally under control, there is a very good chance that it will assume a seasonal nature in the sense that if - and I hope it’s not only if but when - we get it down to a point where it is really at a low level, we need to be prepared. Since it will be unlikely to be completely eradicated from the planet, as we get into next season, we may see the beginning of a resurgence . And that’s why we’re pushing so hard to get our preparedness much better than it was but, importantly, pushing on a vaccine and doing clinical trials for therapeutic interventions so that hopefully, if in fact we do see that resurgence, we will have interventions that we did not have in the beginning of the situation that we’re in right now”
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COVID-19 and the world of work: Impact and policy responses wcms_738753.pdf (313.4 KB)
ILO Monitor 2nd edition: COVID-19 and the world of work wcms_740877.pdf (421.7 KB)
Since USA and china relationship may fall apart once the pandemic settles down as Trump is being so vocal about it, do you think India can become the biggest importer of API and generics to the USA?
Another concern is we ourselves order a bunch of RM from the China, so will we see that transition happening where we become the manufactures of these RM? Apart from cost what do you think there can be entry barriers to manufacturing of these RM?
Why the RM is the issue since if we import the RM we are always at Chinas disposal which can be an issue going ahead.
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CRISIL Covid concall notes
Non Linear effect on economy eg if lockdowns time double impact will be more than double
India has been miserly in terms of fiscal stimulus , reliance has been on monetary policy (1% of GDP with focus on poor sections).
Next fiscal stimulus should come soon with some assistance to business so that productive capacity in economy does not disappear but money for this could come from 1) Borrowing 2) shift of expenses from sector like culture 3) Printing money
Approach should be whatever it takes with fiscal policy as has been done with monetary policy
NBFC sector currently not given moratorium facilities by bank
GDP forecast 3.3% against low base
Money moving out from EM and india not insulated from it
If world eco is shrinking and if it shrink more than 2008 then exports will be hit massively even more due to deglobalization trend
Credit growth half of GDP nominal around 3%
Germany fiscal stimulus 15% of GDP some of it was in form guarantee which is possible in india also
In india last GFC home loan/ Vehicle Loan in general less delinquency as customer sentiment attached to them plus collateral though some cos are exception due to their strong sys/collections
Life Insurance impact on term loan lower than investment driven ULIPS
General insurance pressure was high on many cos even more before covid as underwriting deficit was high in some cos
We still expect retail credit higher than corporate credit growth(negligible)
MFI 99% collection till last year but we see very sharp decline in collections and delinquency
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Given that people will turn highly sensitive post pandemic, people might change how they are commuting (at least for few years). While the upper middle class may start think to buy a car or rent a car for travels, be it festive vacation (Cities to their natives), or within cities. Whoever using public transport so far might start using bikes/scooters to avoid the crowded buses/trains.
ICICIdirect has added sectorwise Research reports with impact due to corona. can be accessed from below link
https://www.icicidirect.com/mailimages/co_reports.htm
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Fund house increased its holding in the stock in latest quarter and then gives a favourable report with recommendation in sector report. It will include their holdings and avoid all other companies. It’s like a person buying a stock and writing good things about it, nothing illegal or immoral.
eg. They recommend Titan and Trent in Retail report.
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund shareholding in Titan increased from 0.369 in Dec 19 to 0.685 in Mar 20 (check shareholding in valueresearchonline.com).
Similarly Trent shareholding increased from 0.323 in Dec19 to 402 in Mar20.
If more people buy based on recommendation it will be beneficial to the fund house.
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More airlines and aiports will follow suit.