Lock down is required. No doubts there. We are only debating the velocity of spread in hot vs cold / high sun exposure vs low sun exposure …conditions.
And the evidence till now tends to suggest that …lower sun exposure / colder countries are getting hit harder. That’s the limited point.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
No wonder that in India, people have been drinking out of copper cups for millennia. Even here in the United States, a copper line brings in your drinking water. Copper is a natural, passive, antimicrobial material. It can self-sterilize its surface without the need for electricity or bleach.
Now Keevil believes it’s time to bring copper back in public spaces, and hospitals in particular. In the face of an unavoidable future full of global pandemics, we should be using copper in healthcare, public transit, and even our homes. And while it’s too late to stop COVID-19, it’s not too early to think about our next pandemic.
https://www.fastcompany.com/90476550/copper-kills-coronavirus-why-arent-our-surfaces-covered-in-it
Early days to comment on it, but there may be a case for comeback of copper coated furnitures, utensils & goods.
We have no clear evidence yet… The paper was not peer reviewed… This is the original paper
You may want to read the following twitter feed
Analysis of the Current Economic Crisis
How was SARS controlled?
Update on supply chain disruptions.
India has imposed a 14 day quarantine on ships coming from any port in China. This was put in place yesterday. A few ships from China which had reached Nhava Sheva ( anchorage ) have already been asked to wait for 1-2 days. This restriction has the potential to disrupt container shipping patterns in significant ways.
Firstly, ships will have to wait outside ports incurring costs.
Secondly, cargo on these ships will be delayed , adding to costs for importers, exporters and eventually to the end customer.
Thirdly, shipping lines will have to delay their arrival to Indian ports to reach after 14 days. If they cannot delay then they will have to unload cargoes in a transshipment port . Another ship will then carry the cargoes to Indian ports.
I think we all need to worry about large scale haircuts in unsecured lending in the worst case scenario. The so called quality end of lenders are truly staring at black swan event. How would you recover when there is no collateral to recover from and there is no shame in defaulting. A secured lender can restructure and wait for things to turnaround to exit the asset in possession. I recall many unsecured lenders had 6-10% NPA in the unsecured lending during 2008 which led to exit from the same. I understand the point that CIBIL will kill your future credit worthiness but when a large scale events happen, the govt. will intervene and ask financial institutions to be lenient about it. Regarding valuation, it is the unsecured creditors which have outperformed every other class during the last few years and much more vulnerable to return to mean.
I also feel that inflation is going to return with vengeance across the board once this settles down. The kind of liquidity being poured into the economy without commensurate supply growth will lead to large scale but acceptable inflation across the world. It is the secured creditors like corporate and housing that will come out better from this but may be with a lag.
SARS was a coronovirus too and far more lethal than this one
It was not as contagious as this strain of virus so overall deadliness is much higher.
The biggest issue with Covid19 is most of the people will have only mild symptoms and its asymptomatic nature ( read about diamond princess cruise). Hence it is very difficult to isolate it and prevent the spread. And world still don’t know much about this virus ( R-O value or mortality rate).
Also the mortality rate due to coronavirus is much higher in EU countries like Italy and Spain. Situation has become very worse in these 2 countries. That only “2% mortality rate” data was either fudged or maybe China handled the outbreak much better than these nations.
2% mortality rate is when you are able to provide intensive medical care for all the patients. The real problem with Italy/Spain is that their health care systems completely broke down due to shear number of infected people. No country has healthcare systems which can be used simultaneously by at least 4% of the population. And think about people with other medical conditions and not being able to get medical care. China handled(or did they) it by strict lockdown measures, South Korea , Singapore is flattening the curve with intensive testing measures. An important point here is all these SE Asian countries have experience handling SARS before. For EU, this was completely new and they didn’t care about lockdown. India is doing very well now with strict lockdowns but only question with 1.3billion people, how will we manage it.
From an investment point of view, at least keep a year’s expense as emergency fund, do SIP in small amounts with remaining funds.
This is another angle of this crisis presently circulating in media
This is an eye opener… Mahmoud ElAwadi, former Vice President/Senior Financial Advisor/Portfolio Manager at Merrill Lynch and former Vice President, Resident Manager, Financial Advisor at Morgan Stanley reveals something very shocking about China and the corona virus. Well worth watching. "The truth that no one is talking about "
People keep saying - there is no concrete evidence that hot and humid conditions do not reduce the velocity of spread of Corona Virus.
Doctors across Europe kept saying for centuries that washing hands before eating doesnt help. There is no evidence.
And one fine day…they discovered BACTERIA !!!
Similar things wrt use of copper for storing water, until one day USFDA stamped it - live of virus on copper surfaces is aprox 1/10 vs in Stainless Steel, Plastic.
LACK OF EVIDENCE DOESNT MEAN ABSENCE OF EVIDENCE !!!
ITS LIKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DAY AND NIGHT.
FINGERS CROSSED
While there are not detailed studies establishing the link between the virus and heat. There are definite indications that heat slows the spread. Take a look at the picture below indicates that 25 deg centigrade and above is definitely not conducive for the spread
Also that Bollywood singer who came back from London and tested positive was in contact with more than 200 people. I believe all the samples collected from the contacts have tested negative. This I thought was unusual considering how contagious the virus is. So heat might be a factor and this is probably not being considered in the mathematical models which show millions of cases in India by May.
Or the test was taken too early.
The 14 day quarantine is only for the reason that one can show a positive test result any day between 1 - 14. While there have been sporadic cases when people have tested negative multiple times before testing positive or testing positive after 14 days.
A very nice article.
Must read.
Its a peep into the bigger macroeconomic picture.
