in pharma space Cipla is considered best bet in this time and some brokerages recommended it too, Anyone following Cipla ?
Which companies in india might benefit most ?
Orient paper is india’s largest maker of tissue paper. Took a trading position this week.
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Interesting early research that says India and other tropical countries may come out relatively unscathed in the whole epidemic. It also explains beautifully why it spread from Wuhan towards South Korea and Japan while forecasting models were unanimous in predicting Bangkok to be the next epicenter.
SSRN-id3550308.pdf (2.2 MB)
Admins/mods, please feel free to remove the post, if found irrelevant.
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Many Italians in Northern Italy have sold their leather goods and textiles companies to China. Italy then allowed 100,000 Chinese workers from Wuhan and Wenzhou to move to Italy to work in these factories, with direct flights between Wuhan and Northern Italy .
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Mayur Uniquoters as they also compete with Chinese suppliers?
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I was thinking of them however on one of their concalls I remember them saying their products are not “easily” switchable. In extreme situations that we are currently experiencing its possible they might be direct beneficiaries and once these are changed they will continue to be used as car companies dont usually switch easily on existing lines. Most switching happens on new lines
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Nice words Chandra.
General investor mindset is seeing himself/herself travelling from one price quote to another on upside or downside path. And when volatility increases, markets become voting machine, his/her tendency to watch least valuable and most widely followed information (as stated by Peter Lynch) - the price - increases further. Like real estate, adding physical attributes to equity is the most challenging task in today’s age of digitization.
Clearly evident that digitization is giving an artificial boost to spending habits where people are consuming more they can afford to. Also supported by India’s per capita GDP figure running flat at $2000, while household debt to GDP has ascended to 12% and household savings to GDP dropped to 18%. How long it will continue, have to be seen.
Unlike consumption, in investments, tangible transaction process (form filling, paying through cheques), taking pride in storing physical certificates, dividend certificates, attending annual meetings, consuming chai pakoda and discussing company’s future with other attendees etc would have played a major role in motivating investors to hold securities more than sufficient.
Needless to say that not only number and type of holdings but attitude and culture too decides success in markets.
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Good source (updated daily): 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic data
It illustrates reported cases count - date and country wise.
Plateaued: China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, UAE, Taiwan
(something to learn from last five)
Worry: Iran, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, USA, Switzerland, UK …
India has been doing remarkably well for now. Hope we remain <1000 at the end of next 15 days from today.
Usually number reaches ~4000 from ~100 in 15 days in worst hit areas (30% growth daily - wild compounding).
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Hi
I had prepared a small set of notes based on data provided by worldometers.
Essentially what @spatel bhai is saying is the apt summary.
Lets see how things unfold from here.
Attaching the document below.
Data on COVID-19 14_March 2020_Deepak Venkatesh.pdf (1.2 MB)
Take care and be safe everyone.
Regards
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Bitcoin & Gold ‘Are Doing the Same Thing’ in Coronavirus Crisis: Pomp
I disagree about gold collapsing. Gold has been trying to break past USD 1,700/ounce for 3 weeks. It just recently broke its closest support level of 1,550 USD/ounce and is heading to its next support level of USD 1,445/ounce.
I am indirectly invested in gold through the Gold Bees ETF so my views are biased.
While gold can head to USD 1,300/ounce, it is very difficult for me to find a reason why it would.
Personally, I am waiting for the panic selling to stop so that I can buy Nestle and HIndustan Unilever stocks (I had Hindustan Unilever stocks in my portfolio but unfortunately sold them three years ago).
Bitcoin’s fall is a bit of a surprise but I guess that weaker banks mean weaker entry points for new investors. Wait patiently and one may be able to get BTC at 3,200 USD/BTC. Bitcoin production costs doubles every 4 years or so, so it may be a better solution for someone who wants protection against a weakening rupee than investing in Indian stocks and N100 ETF (ETF that tracks NASDAQ 100) but I’m willing to make the play that Nestle and Hindustan Unilever can go up 6x to 8x in 10 years from a slump.
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We now have a much wider dataset and broader experience to understand the Corona virus issue. It appears the initial reports of 2% Mortality Rate (MR) were widely off the mark. The actual MR appears to be much higher. A lot of initial reports used fatalities as a % of reported cases to calculate the MR. But a “reported” case can take anywhere between 2 to 8 weeks to reach “conclusion” ( i.e. recovery or death).
The correct way to calculate MR is to use Closed cases as a base and not Reported cases.
And if one uses that, MR for COVID-19 is coming close to 8%.
Look at this: This data is from COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
MR = 6,685 / 84,552 = 7.91 %
And this one is from John Hopkins: ArcGIS Dashboards Classic
MR = 6,513 / (6,513 + 77,657) = 7.74 %
(I have given screenshots since these are dynamic numbers and keep changing)
Take care guys……. this is looking far worse than anything we have imagined. It is perhaps time to stop thinking of markets and start thinking of our near and dear ones.
I hope I am wrong.
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While you brought out a pretty valid point about looking at closed cases alone, that in itself won’t determine MR right?
There are multiple factors like age distribution (Italy has highest % of old age people,.delayed implementation of measures like social distancing, testing etc. We need to consider multiple factors like that into account as well. We may know the true mortality rate in hindsight.
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Poultry industry is dying for no reason (rumors). Govt. should actively take steps.
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1. Necessity is the mother of invention , so our willingness to solve problems is about to surge .
2. Worry will exceed actual harm, which is both tragic and in a way comforting .
best line was this
Same for World War II, which is responsible for both the most risk and the most rapid invention of any six-year period in history. The war began with troops on horseback. It ended by splitting an atom in half.
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Hi
Using the data from WHO I transposed the starting points of the top 10 countries in terms of number of cases to that of China (roughly 270 cases at starting point of each country). Plots below.
Japan and South Korea seem to have done very well. I think the growth curve might explode in the coming 2 weeks to 20 days.
Stay safe!
Regards
Deepak
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