Cooling May Be India’s Next Big Infrastructure Theme ⚡

[Deepanshu_Jain]

**India’s next capex supercycle may not be EVs or semiconductors.**

It might be something far less glamorous.

Cooling.

The next decade, India could add 15 crore cooling systems** across homes, offices, malls, factories and data centres.

That single shift could create 180 GW of new peak electricity demand.

India’s entire peak power demand today is about 240 GW

So cooling alone could force India to build almost another India-sized power system.

But here’s the real insight

Cooling demand doesn’t benefit just one industry.

It triggers a 6-layer capex chain.

Layer 1 — Cooling equipment manufacturing

Heat exchangers, ODM manufacturing, HVAC components.

Layer 2 — Cooling systems & HVAC leaders

Commercial HVAC, VRF systems, building cooling infrastructure.

Layer 3 — The grid backbone

Transmission lines, cables and substations to deliver the extra power.

Layer 4 — Transformers & switchgear

Every new MW of cooling load stresses distribution infrastructure.

Layer 5 — Grid storage

Cooling demand spikes between 2–6 PM, exactly when grids struggle the most.

Layer 6 — Data centre cooling.

AI, cloud and hyperscale infrastructure add another massive layer of cooling demand.

Which means cooling demand quietly pulls capex into:

1-Power transmission

2-Cables & conductors

3-Transformers & substations

4-Energy storage

5-HVAC infrastructure

6-Data centre cooling

Cooling may become one of the largest electrification multipliers in India’s economy.

And interestingly…

The biggest beneficiaries may not be the companies selling ACs.

They might be the ones that are building the grid that powers the cooling.

If this cooling cycle plays out over the next decade:

Which layer captures the most value?

Grid infrastructure

HVAC equipment

Energy storage

Data-centre cooling

Curious to hear how others are thinking about this cooling capex theme.

[Adarsh_Kaushal]

As per Mordor Intelligence, India data Center Cooling market will grow @26.42% CAGR between 2025-2030. Current Cooling market is USD 2.38 B and it will become USD 7.68 B in 2030.

[Deepanshu_Jain]

A strong El Nino-led summer in 2026

ld trigger a cyclical upturn for India’s consumer durables sector, particularly cooling products such as air conditioners, air coolers and fans, according to a report by Anand Rathi Research. An early, intense and prolonged heatwave could sharply accelerate demand for cooling appliances after a weak base in 2025, potentially driving earnings upgrades and margin expansion

Negative trigger

Huge increase in input cost such as copper prices ,plastic prices and other input may squeeze margin

Positive

Huge expected volume growth than last year

RAC penetration is still weak in Indian homes .

Some proxies related to it would be

Amber enterprises and e pack durable pg electroplast : makes Ac for big brand such as lg ,daikin ,voltas

Srf : makes refrigerant gases (essential part of ac)

[Deepanshu_Jain]

Source : https://www.iqair.com/in-en/newsroom/heatwave-map-spotlight-northern-central-and-eastern-india

Acc to latest data

India has officially become world hottest country as (19 out of world 20 most hottest cities are Indian cities ))

[Kunal_Veritas]

𝐇𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐰𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐀𝐥𝐞𝐫𝐭 - 𝐛𝐚𝐝 𝐧𝐞𝐰𝐬 𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝐡𝐮𝐦𝐚𝐧, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐚𝐧 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐬

India’s heatwave is intensifying, with cities like Jhansi, Orchha, and Balangir already touching ~41°C by 10am. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), above-normal temperatures are sweeping across north, central, and eastern regions; including Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, and Odisha, with several districts facing ‘hot’ to ‘extreme hot’ conditions. #source: Media news

𝐎𝐮𝐫 𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰:
As a result, the intense heatwave is likely to drive a sharp surge in demand for cooling and consumption-led categories. Products such as air conditioners and refrigerators typically see accelerated sales as households and businesses look for relief from extreme temperatures, leading to higher volumes and improved capacity utilization for manufacturers.

At the same time, discretionary consumption also gets a boost-categories like ice cream and cold beverages witness strong offtake as consumers increase frequency of purchase to cope with the heat. This combination of essential (cooling appliances) and impulse-driven (F&B) demand creates a favorable near-term demand environment, supporting both topline growth and operating leverage for companies operating across these segments.

“Stay hydrated”

𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗿: 𝗠𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄𝗹𝗲𝗱𝗴𝗲 𝗽𝘂𝗿𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗻𝗹𝘆. 𝗗𝗼 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗗𝗗 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻.

[Deepanshu_Jain]

what is district cooling ???

District cooling means one big cooling plant supplies AC cooling to many buildings through underground pipes.

instead of every building having its own AC machine, one central system cools all of them.

1-in this process simply , central plant makes cold water

2-water movies through underground insulated pipes in different home

3-building uses these cold water to cool rooms and send back warm water

4-plant cools it again and send it back

i am attaching a little animated video along with it

[Investor_No_1]

Any insights on cooling fluid demand in data centers in india, their expected growth and companies involved or expected to get into it?

[Deepanshu_Jain]

India’s data centre cooling market is set for a major leap, projected to rise from $2.1 billion in 2024 to $7.13 billion by 2030, according to the government white paper "Democratising Access to High-Performance Computing.

And as of now

The company I found of this domain are netweb tech and Aeroflex.

[arvghy]

Thermax too can be added to the list