Yes even i believe so spot rates are higher , while resale market rates are inching higher
Quite the opposite container ship sale and purchase market has shrunk by 50 percent in 2022 as per alphaliner weekly newsletter from last week.
For Asia - Europe run : 27 percent of sailings were axed in first seven weeks of 2023 itself due to lack of cargo demand. There were 69 ship’s that counted that started a round voyage from Asia to Europe. Under a normal schedule, the number of sailings would be 84.
Spot freight rates are still slowly decreasing even after a capacity reductions, but Asia to med rates remain significantly higher than Asia to North Europe rates.
Also, stocks of major shipping companies have collapsed between 20 to 70 percent in 2022. You can check the stock prices of ZIM, wan hai, evergreen, Cosco, Yang Ming, sitc, hapag Lloyd, RCL, Maersk, Matson, Hmm, OOIL because of fears over future earnings.
However, i am talking about the global trade of container ships here. GE Shipping is not a container carrier so the above is not much relevant to it.
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What is your view on G.e shipping at current valuation?
I do not follow GE Shipping. I merely commented on the sale of second hand container ships as i know for a fact, the outlook for container shipping companies is negative in the near future.
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Despite three fantastic quarters on the trot, major paper stocks (JK, West Coast, TNPL) have stagnated since September… EPS has doubled since Q1 FY 23e… these muted responses for two quarters on the trot and I’m beginning to wonder if, market is sending a strong signal that the cycle has peaked? The results seemed to be completely otherwise…
Seeing the same trend in Hotel stocks as well (Lemon tree, EIH, with Indian Hotel slightly bucking the muted trend)…
Experienced boarders please advice
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Any veiws on chemical and pharma companies? Prices of chemical commodities have corrected, along with its stocks. Any veiw will be appreciated.
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@jitenp Hi Jiten bhai,
Which cyclical sector seems to be on cusp of turn around or one that looks attractive currently?
Many thanks
Tracking forward… hotel stocks moved up during the recent mid-cap small-cap rally… which is in tune with the fantastic Q4… but paper stocks especially market leaders like West Coast and JK Paper are yet to re-capture Aug-Sep 2022 peak raising questions if the cycle has peaked-out…
This Money Control article of early April probably explains the reasons behind price topping-out: huge supply is getting commissioned in Latin America & China which may flood the markets during the year…
In the recent Q4 concall of JK Paper, the management has been quite candid that the record 35-40% gross margins of FY23e are not repeatable… and prices in FY 24e are expected to be volatile…
HDFC in its sectoral report has mentioned that hotel sector is in a sweet spot as not much fresh supply is expected for another 18-24 months… demand outpacing supply, the latter not catching up for next 2-3 years… “The current phase seems to be very similar to the 2004-2008 era, which saw a strong uptrend in the hotel industry and which will last for another 3-4 years. The upcycle could normalise with moderation in demand and huge supply addition hitting the market post 2026-27”
caveat: what’s above merely notes of a novice investor trying to make sense of market through open source info 
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Venky’s India is another cyclical play whose margin depends on Soya prices. Currently margins are at the bottom of the cycle. PAT is around 1-2% of revenue. Also the stock has bottomed. Good chances of mean reversion from here. A similar play is Godrej Agrovet. Godrej Agrovet is trying to diversify equally into non-cyclical businesses to mitigate the effect of cyclicality in bottom line. Both companies have revenues increasing around 15% CAGR.
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How do you predict when a supercycle might happen ,the stock can remain rangebound and consilidate in the same range for half a decade.Is there anyway to see early signs?
@jitenp Hi Jiten bhai,
Whats your view on tyre sector ? Which cyclical/commodity sector you feel is currently near turn around ? Many thanks
You can get capacity utilisation details from Industry insiders comments on con calls and study future demand triggers.
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How is Vidli Restaurants Ltd? Recently company alloted 7% shares to Vikram Kamat
Not tracking… looks like the company is hardly into any operations to merit attention
I’m seeing a sudden movement in stock prices of dye companies as i’m invested i 3 companies :-valiant,kiri and bhageria.2 of these companies do quarterly concalls and the industry has been seeing the worst headwinds it has ever faced due to fall in demand in the west. both the companies in the concall have mentioned they are bullish of a demand uptick in Q3 and Q4.
One way to track would be to look at how textile industries perform ,is there any stock or index which i can see to track the textile industry?
Nitin Spinners & Trident
Both have seen buying in huge volumes in the past couple of days.
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Add ‘Bodal Chemical’ to that list. I believe this is the second response to some textile company-related stock movements in the past few months. If these are signs of the Industry bottoming out or just market euphoria… is hard to tell. But all Dye & Pigments players are commenting on demand revival in 2H-2024FY.
Dyes and Pigments: Revival Likely in H2FY24 After a Subdued FY23 -
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The 3 companies ,I’m tracking all do concalls and out of which i feel kiri is the most that can be trusted and have said they will be doing a buyback hopefully by this year.If it happens i will increase my holdings in the dye sector or wait for market to correct again before adding.