Looks like steel has got headroom in terms of Gov support and overall growth and value added products. I believe this will work out.
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Capex in chemical sector has increased sharply in last 3years and strong pipeline for next 3years too. Good outlook for growth, but unfortunately stock valuations are looking so stretched.
Source: At Saturation Level?
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Trying to calculate what’s already built in steel stock prices. There is still value if one believes that there are structural changes happening in the sector.
Source: Centre of gravity is shifting....
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Due to frost in Brazil where lot of coffee crops have spoilt including young plants which is likely to affect current and future coffee prices
Coffee prices on exchanges have already increased a lot
Companies like tata coffee that have a large coffee plantation are showing strong technical strength
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Do we know which region of Brazil has got snow/frost? How much coffee/sugar is planted in that region?
As per my understanding it’s winter in countries south of equator. So coffee/sugar prices may not move much because of this event.
Apparently in south Minas
But today just now there was a report that the frost is not as bad as they first thought it would be
Rakesh ji, what is your view on impact of coal prices on steel companies? In your scenario of US$ 65/ton steel price rise over the long term average, you have incorporated iron ore price increases (which will impact non-integrated players).
Do you think coal prices could play spoilsport? Could they eat away all the benefit of the US$ 65/ton price increase, and then some more?
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See, we have taken impact of iron ore prices in India because it is a change impacting only Indian companies. While coking coal is largely imported and impacts all global players. This won’t impact Indian players alone, so will be passed on to consumers by steel makers in form of higher steel prices
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China taking away the rebate on export of Steel can provide stability to Steel prices in Indian Domestic Market. @Rakesh_Arora - If you can please share your views on - how big opportunity does this move from China offer to Indian Steel producer’s
steel_china.pdf (1.2 MB)
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As I wrote in the chart which I pasted above, steel margins for ex China steel producers including India goes up by a minimum of US$65/t. And also might reduce exports out of China, prolonging the steel cycle.
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Hi everyone,
I was listening to the panel discussion on markets by Utpal Sheth, Madhusudan Kela and Vijay Kedia and moderated by Prashant Nair.
When Prashant asked Mr. Utpal on steel sector, surprisingly enough, Mr.Utpal said it doesn’t looks like a one off cyclical story and looks like a structural change with the world aiming to become carbon free. Below is the link : listen to this on metal sector from 2hours56minutes.
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Also, if someone is following Sail, look at qtr on qtr shareholding patterns (top 500 shareholders), there are quite a few interesting names who are known for generating alpha returns.
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Please tell, How to find out list of the shareholders
Thanks
Google it out.
@karan_malik not sure how to decipher the list as holding in sail for esteemed investor could be minimal wrt overall portfolio.
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You are right, but what I meant is if you could get hold of 31 March 2021 top 500 list, from there you see significant buying for many investors. Say for example, Basant Maheshwari’s stake comes close to 100crores, dolly khanna’s stake at 33 crores, if you place it in her portfolio at trendlyne, it would look like top 4-5 stock in portfolio based on amount invested. Yes, you are right that it might be insignificant part of their portfolios but what was interesting is Marquee names increasing holdings from past two qtrs.
Old Bridge Capital’s (run by Kenneth Andrade) name also came up in this qtr.
No stock recommendation, only for discussion purpose.
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You can see latest 500 top shareholders in SAIL Ltd as on 30th June 21, which u can’t see in trendlyne or other sites as most are below 1%.
Very prominent names hold this stock.
Disc - Invested from last few months.
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Closed position today. caustic rates still hovering at 33-34. chlorine realisation also improved. risk reward not suitable for me now. will reconsider sometime later.
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Any idea where to get pricing for Caustic soda. I mean wholesale prices?
I track it through local wholesale dealers in North India, know a few of them. To compare rates in the west, i call up dealers of GACL from their website. rates wont come down to 25-26k in the near term as per them. I booked out since Margin of safety at 300-320 was there. not at these levels. according to me. i may be wrong.
Have always followed @jitenp whenever investing in cyclicals.
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Thanks!! Also do you think higher capacity coming on stream is already factored in to the current pricing?