Commodity and Cyclical Plays

I will not be able to comment on individual companies. But non-ferrous sector, some companies gave very good opportunities to add. I have invested in debt-free companies, who have have high cash, and can definitely sustain many years of downturn and still pay dividends.

One of the companies was available below cash recently. If you have patience, very little chance of going wrong in these type of investments.

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Jitenbhai…Non ferrous sectors means copper, Aluminum and Zinc or any other company?
“One of the companies was available below cash recently” - is this PSU or private sector company?

I think it was MOIL. I was watching it for sometime but did not buy thinking market might know something I don’t as I don’t have a deep understanding of these types of businesses

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Yes most probably it is MOIL.

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Jiten Ji,

Can you please provide your inputs on what metrics to look out for in the paper industry.

Now that sectors like steel, cement, graphite are not that attractive in the near run, would be much obliged if you can provide your views on paper

There is very good work done by Divya on paper. Attaching her report. This will help in understanding better.Paper Industry.pdf (4.2 MB)

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Sir Any view on BOPP Industry?

Please check the thread of a BOPP company. I have given my views there.

Thanks for sharing the study sir! But could you let us know your views on how Imports of paper from china could affect things for now.

Do you see the margin reduction being significant for domestic players?

Sir Any view on Varroc engineering? Its last 12 months operating profit is more than 1000cr while its MCAP is 1800 cr only…Its balance sheet is not strong due to capex…Can it be Value buy?

Telecom sector has done quiet well. Continue to stay positive in this sector from a long term point of view.

I had written a little about telecommunication industry. A lot of it is based on your ideas in your presentation on cyclicals. It will be helpful if you can point out the shortcomings in the analysis/ main indicators to focus on in the telecommunication industryTelecommunication industry

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Hello Jiten Sir. How do you see the cotton cycle playing out in near term and its impact on textile manufacturers. The chemicals required for textile are somewhat dependent upon crude prices and should stay low in near future. If the sector can get some help from Cotton prices then we can see some quick upmoves. Thanks.

As I have said earlier this is one sector which has not worked out for me. Had limited positions, which I don’t have now. And not tracking this sector closely. Has structural issues. We are not competitive. I plan to stay away from this sector.

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@jitenp Sir Any view on TOOL manufacturers machine Industry? Macpowercnc available at Enterprise value of around 30 CR?

Have booked some profits in the cement sector. Some sharp moves in some of the names I hold from a basket of cement stocks. Portfolio weightage exceeded, so have to bring it back in range. Will cover again if they fall again. +ve view from a 2-3 year perspective remains intact.

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Jiten Sir, Why Shree digvijay and Birla jumped up by 30%+ and 20%+ respectively after the result. Market was not expecting it to be good?

@jitenp . Your preferences in terms of region for cement ?

North, Central, West, East, South. Preference in order.

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This post covers longer term cycles and maybe relevant here as well.

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