Old but relevant article for ferrochrome players…like IMFA and Balasore!!!
Soaring demand in China for ferrochrome, used in the production of steel, is helping Indian ferrochrome producers like Indian Metals and Ferro AlloysBSE 3.61 % (IMFA) and Balasore AlloysBSE 3.15 %. Given the firm demand and prices in China for ferrochrome (FC) and limited global supply , most of the producers of the alloy have diverted their sales to China, resulting in supply shortage in the country.
As per IMFA press release, contract price for Q4FY18 has settled less when compared to Q3FY18.May be Q4 results will be tad lower .Q-O-Q incremental revenue in Q3 & Q4 FY17 may not repeat in Q3 & Q4 FY18.
Aluminium is up and about. Up 15% in the last couple of weeks and also trading at 6 year highs. Easing of trade tensions and sanctions on Rusal has done wonders.
This is with reference to 70% acquisition of Zimbabwe Alloys Ltd (ZAL) by Balasore . As per disclosures ZAL has chrome ores of about 72 Million MT (effectively 50Mn MT for Balasore). The acquisition price paid by Balasore is approx. USD 92 million. This works out to about USD 1.8 per mt for chrome ore. As per edelweiss report shared few days ago on this forum the price of Zimbabwe origin chrome ore is in the range of USD 360-380. Even after considering mining cost of USD 100 (just an wild assumption) the equation works out to be too good to be true. Am I missing something ?
Nothing mentioned about royalty and taxation in the disclosure by Balasore.
Hi @jitenp, Would like to know your view on the copper play, I know you have exited but with my limited knowledge I still believe the copper play is still in a stage where we can get in and ride, your expertise view would be greatly helpful.
@jitenp Any views on the Aluminium and Alumina pure play post the Rusal ban imposition. Prices seem to be skyrocketing. Even today new is that the prices have increased by 5 % in LME Market . A 17.4% increase in aluminum prices in the past one week and maybe even more of alumina prices taking into account the already deficit should go well with Indian Metal players. https://www.ft.com/content/151f278e-419a-11e8-803a-295c97e6fd0b
Disclosure : My personal view may be biased as I invested in NALCO once the news broke out.
Aluminium has had a fundamental shift since Rusal sanctions and prices have shot up since for both Aluminium and Alumina so its understandable. Not sure what’s up with Hind Copper though. Might just be the routine pump-and-dump like last time from 65 to 100 and back but Aluminium might have more near-term tailwinds if geopolitics doesn’t play spoilsport.
Hindustan Copper’s Nickel capacity is too small to make any impact. Their current capacity for Nickel seems to be just 50 tons. At 15k USD per ton, thats a topline of about 5 Cr. I don’t think it had anything to do with today’s moves. However capacity for Nickel could go up to 400 tons but that’s in the future when the Ghatsila mine starts contributing and that’s some time away.
Usually the price gets reflected in LME/Comex in case of such macro scenarios and I don’t see anything happening to Copper prices that are indicative of that. So am not sure.
Although the price/action was similar in both Nalco and Hind Copper, the delivery volumes tell a completely different story. 14% in Hind Copper vs 31% in Nalco. I am still skeptical of Hind Copper.
