Great write up!
In my opinion any intelligent and smart investor can beat hands down any coffee can strategy or any other market discovered strategy of out performance by simplicity of strategy with combination of FD and one cyclical company in last 20 years too, provided one has done a great deal of hard work, detail study and proper defined investment policy! But the last part is very tough, very very tough.
| CAGR | 23.27% |
|---|---|
| FD + One Cyclical Company | |
| Date | Cashflows |
| 03/Jan/2000 | -100,000.00 |
| 08/May/2020 | 7,070,866.00 |
So the key question is why to break one head on following so many companies if simple method gives what many fails to come near. IMO its all about doing more and more study before investing or following anything blindly. I observed that a point to point return comparison is meaningless most of the time, what matters is whether the PF return a desired return under all circumstances with less volatility. A PF value of 18% mean return with 20% of standard deviation over long period will certainly put one off the goal when required.
many thanks.
VK