Coffee can method

Caveat: Please read the below post only if you think a 15-20% CAGR over the long term through Coffee Can method represents a good return which you may want to aim for!

I came across the book, Coffee Can Investing, last September randomly at the airport and thought to give it a try given all the carnage in equity markets at that time - wondered this book couldn’t do much more harm to my already bleeding PF :smiley:

And thank god that I read this book in-spite of some people saying this book is nothing great!!! I have become a big fan of Saurabh Mukherjea ever since reading this book!

There are probably hundreds and thousands of books out there which tell you how to pick stocks, identify great businesses, make money in equities, bla bla bla. But none of them are as simple and as rule-based as this one!

This is the beauty of this book - with just 2 simple rules mentioned in the 1st post (non-financials 10 year revenue growth and ROCE %), you can identify some of the best fastest growing businesses in India led by excellent capable managements! (You may want to slightly modify the 10 year YoY revenue growth to 10 year CAGR depending upon some companies which might have had some global / domestic event / incident impacting their business for a short duration. Bit of a personal call there on what you’re willing to live with)

And if you put a couple of further conditions on the above filters - non-cyclical, B2C business, low debt, promoter holding, CFO trend, etc. and you could get a winning portfolio!

But then the next question? How do you build your portfolio? How much to allocate to which company?

For most retail investors, this book has the perfect answer! Once you identify those great businesses, just have equal weight distribution across them and forget it for 10 years! Because as this book showed with back-tested results - the winners in the PF will become a substantial part after 10 years while any losers will become inconsequential.

And over 10-15 different back-tested CCPs from 2001-2017 - it sure does beat the benchmark Nifty/Sensex significantly!

Okay - so the proof of the pudding is in the eating, so after finishing reading this book in Nov, I got down to trying to identify some businesses which fit the Coffee Can style of investing.

I’m sharing some of the companies which I’ve been able to identify over November-January (2-3 months)

I’m invested in some of the above companies and think the absolute returns using this approach on Coffee Can Investing speak for themselves.

I know it’s an extremely short duration to come to any conclusions - but the single most important aspect I find in the above list of companies is the low risk of complete blow-up of capital and 100% loss of capital. Something which has been a real risk in some of my previous investments.

It is also no wonder that their PMS Consistent Compounders Portfolio has delivered a 30% return in FY20 when compared with 3% of Nifty!

The only thing which has changed between my earlier method/approach of stock selection where I ended up stepping on some live minefields and my current approach is purely this book!

Cannot recommend this book and approach enough to new retail investors!

PS: I have also read One up on Wall Street, The Thoughtful Investor, 5 Rules for Successful Stock Investing and few other books and none even comes close to this in my view.

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