Greetings People !
I am a 24 year old who started learning about the markets back when i was 20. Since then have made some money and lost some on various instruments until about a year ago i’ve realized long term is the way to go for me looking at my other commitments.
Have come up with the following list of 10 i would like to hold for the next 20 odd years or more post my research and learning :
HDFC Bank - Invested
Reliance Industries - Invested
HDFC Life - Invested
Asian Paints - Invested
Britannia
HDFC AMC - Invested
Bajaj Finance - Invested
United Spirits
Page Industries
Pidilite
Other Stocks on my Watchlist which i am confused with if i should include or not because i think a number more than 10 would too long a list to track :
Titan
Jubilant Foodworks
3M
Kotak Mahindra
ITC
Syngene
Navin Fluorine
Vinati Organics
Delta Corp
Suprajit Industries
Relaxo
Dr. Lal Pathlabs
Divis Labs
Investment Rationale :
Have shortlisted businesses who would stay in demand even 20 years down the line, have good ROCE, are market leaders in what they do and have been compounding at a good rate. Not looking for multi baggers but instead consistent compounders.
A few doubts i have :
Is a high exposure to HDFC Group a risk ?
A High Dividend Yield Stock is missing from the list and i would love to include ITC in there but then again i am confused.
Dont have any exposure to Pharma in Main 10 because i dont understand the Sector completely yet.
Would love to have honest and brutally honest opinions from you people here
Not sure about long runway of profitable growth for bajaj fin, page and wary of conglomerate ril as don’t know how it will be structured later…rest are great choices
Your list of 10 stocks are blue chip companies. They are solid companies with proven track record and no doubt they can deliver compounding returns.
On stock specific, yes you got concentration of HDFC stocks. Probably you need to de-risk. I would probably look at Nestle/HUL instead of Britannia.
However, for your age (24 yrs) and a very long term view (20 yrs), you need to seriously add next potential blue chips and never mind if the list goes from 10 to 12.
Just remember, although they are solid companies, there is no point holding on for 20 years if the fundamentals or management or corporate governance deteriorate !!
Would love to give honest and brutally honest opinions
First you find out what is your asset allocation b/w Debt:Equity at present?
What is your current performance of PF in terms of returns and risks. Can you quantify?
Against what are you comparing your returns? What is the benchmark you are trying to match or beat?
Any good stock doesn’t meant anything unless adding to the PF give meaningful and significant value both in terms of risk and reward.
Don’t think on stock level return once you made a portfolio. It is a portfolio return which will give value in long term.
What is your re balancing principle for portfolio you are planning to adhere to?
It is foolish mistake to think that if one is young he is eligible to take more risks meaning he can lose money and can earn from job to compensate! Aggressiveness is not equivalent to appetite to lose money rather equal to quantum of concerted effort one is giving to his managing PF and its constituents.
Thanks a lot for your feedback.
I’ll look to de-risk the HDFC Group with something else.
Also Nestle is a great stock although why HUL over Britannia ? I chose Britannia out of all looking at the history they’ve had and with their current plan to focus on dairy products and eventually become a full size food company makes me think they just need to get their products right. Would have an advantage of a strong brand / ready disruption network.
Also considering to add few more potential blue chips. Will probably add in 2-3 names in there once i have done enough study and have the conviction to go with them.
And yes corporate governance issues will be red flag and would immediate look to exit irrespective of the position.
Thanks for your feedback and here are answers on the things you’ve asked :
My asset allocation is only equity at the moment. I do not do Debt or MFs due to lack of knowledge. Have been holding Gold / Silver for a very long time though.
I cant honestly quantify the risks in terms of numbers although PF has given good returns considering i started buying start of Oct 2018 when the market was just bottoming out from a correction. To give you a fair idea start positions were BF at 1900 levels, HDFC AMC at 1300 Levels etc. Have added slowly since then. Sitting on a pile of cash since some time now waiting for fall. ( Missed the Bus at Nifty 7500 Levels although i still believe i’ll get better chances looking at what’s going on. I might be wrong though. )
Goal would be to beat the Nifty CAGR and anything better than a 12% CAGR is satisfactory return for me !
Exit Strategy would be corporate governance issues or Revenue growth and Profit growth falling below 10% for 3 years consecutively. Would re-balance stocks based on individual performance and if i find better opportunities elsewhere. Would like to stick to my rationale of Consumer facing stocks though.
Very well said ! Goal is to have my capital compounding at a decent rate for a fairly long time with no absurd expectations. I run a business and would like to focus on getting a higher ROI from the same.
Whilst you are talking of history, both Nestle and HUL had a superior performance. Yes, I agree Britannia too had a good history of performance. However, purely on ratios both Nestle/HUL score higher than Britannia.
Nestle/HUL/Britannia scores are:
Market cap (cr): 168110/501702/73612
Divided yld (%): 0.93/0.95/.49
ROCE (%): 70/116/44
ROE (%): 45/81/30
OPM (%): 23/24/15
Debt/Eq: 0.03/0.01/0.37
Prmo holding: 62/67/50
Personally i like pure MNCs, as they delight investors and chances of corp gov issues unlikely. By the way these are my personal views and my views may be biased. Take informed decisions and as per your conviction.
Disc: I have no holdings in any of the stocks discussed.
In simple and short words and purely my thoughts…whatever bajaj finance may be, after all it is non deposits taking nbfc plus they, according to me, are not doing business right way…they trouble existing customers a lot and those who call have no manners to talk…this is not sustainable, short sighted and deplorable to say the least.
Page…they are selling someone else’s undergarments…doing well so far…infact only such model doing well…many things they did right and best…but not my type of company…I missed out on its huge rally decade back, but I think it’s allright…I don’t like the fact that the main business of page depends on a licence with jockey, which is neither backed by government or such institution…but I have seen such companies doing well…if I get it undiscovered I would trade it but would not buy it as a compounder…
Disc…not a buy sell call it’s only personal thought on business and I can be wrong
That seems quite rational !
Although the same is said by many at times about HDFC Bank’s Netbanking and other services as well and yet here we are. So i certainly am agreeing there might be customers not happy with the service although the pool of people who still aren’t a part of this ecosystem is very high.
Whats your rational behind LT ?
They seem to have a mighty order book on their hands although the share has always been very slow moving.
Not tracking :
Tata Elxsi
Siemens
Instead of SBI Cards i would like to have a indirect exposure to the cards play by buying Mastercard / Visa. This way i also get a global exposure especially to other south east / african nations which have less Credit Cards penetration.
Sbi cards growth and story can be very different than MasterCard Visa etc. As they are different businesses and different enviornment of operations with different base and regulations etc etc.
Wont disagree with what you said. Provided you get it at good valuations and if they don’t keep selling Cards just for the sake of numbers which they have been doing in a lot of cases !
Albeit if you are looking for a horizon for 5-10 years this wont matter.
I think you got me wrong here, I was not in favour of sbi cards, I have not evaluated it closely. I just wanted to convey that many times we think of buying something else as proxy to something else and I have seen many times that doesn’t work in tandem and never in the same proportions. Hope I am clearer now. Thanks
