Chatha Foods - A proxy play for QSR

About Chatha Foods Limited

(Ref:chittorgarh.com)
Incorporated in 1997, Chatha Foods Limited (CFL) is a frozen food processor. The company offers frozen food products to top QSRs (Quick Serving Restaurants), CDRs (Casual Dining Restaurants), and other players in the HoReCa (Hotel-Restaurant-Catering) segment. Chatha Foods’ product portfolio includes Chicken Appetizers, Meat Patties, Chicken Sausages, Sliced Meat, Toppings & Fillers and more. The company produces more than 70 meat products.

The company sells products under the brand Chatha Foods and distributes through the network of 29 distributors covering 32 cities across India and catering to the needs of 126 mid-segment & standalone small QSR brands.

Chatha Foods Limited has a Manufacturing Facility, located in District Mohali, with a production capacity of approximately 7,839 MT for all the frozen food products.

The company is serving top QSRs, CDRs and other players in the Hotel-Restaurant-Catering segment like Domino’s & Subway’s India franchise, Café Coffee Day, Wok Express, etc.

The company does not have any subsidiaries or any Group Companies.

Big Investments

  • Negen Undiscovered Value Fund → ~10.43%
  • Persistent Growth Fund-Varsu India Growth Story Scheme 1 → ~3.65%
  • Aurum Sme Trust → ~1.73%

Financial Information

Figures in Rs. Crores

Mar 2019 Mar 2020 Mar 2021 Mar 2022 Mar 2023
Sales + 91 85 61 87 117
Expenses + 81 80 63 83 110
Operating Profit 10 5 -2 5 7
OPM % 11% 6% -3% 5% 6%
Other Income + -0 -0 0 -0 -0
Interest 2 2 1 1 1
Depreciation 2 2 3 3 3
Profit before tax 6 1 -6 1 3
Tax % 29% 27% 27% 36% 27%
Net Profit + 4 1 -4 1 2
EPS in Rs 3.50 0.83 -3.23 0.54 1.98
Dividend Payout % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Industry and Competition (Ref: Chatha Foods RHP)

Market overview
The global QSR market was valued at INR 25.05 Trn in FY 2022. It is expected to reach INR 54.53 Trn by FY 2027, expanding at a CAGR of ~17.41% during the FY 2023 ─ FY 2027 forecast period. The requirement for a wide variety of fast-food items and the growth of the market both contribute to the quick-service restaurants market’s expansion globally. The QSR market in India was valued at INR 171.90 Bn in FY 2022. It is expected to reach INR 431.27 Bn in FY 2027, expanding at a CAGR of ~20.47% during the FY 2022 ─ FY 2027 forecast period. The current decade is overseeing a shift to a larger organized sector. Customer retention and a higher range and depth of offerings are new goals among the organized market players of QSR.

QSR Market in India
• The QSR market in India was valued at INR 171.90 Bn in FY 2022. It is expected to reach INR 431.27 Bn in FY 2027, expanding at a CAGR of ~20.47% during the FY 2022 ─ FY 2027 forecast period.
Major quick food-service chains, such as McDonald’s, Burger King, and Domino’s, among others, are
deepening their reach in India’s smaller cities and benefiting from a younger demography, thereby further aiding the growth of the market.
• The QSR segment will see its next big growth come from consumers in tier II and tier III cities. Annual spends on eating out at QSR chains in non-metros are expected to surge 150% to INR 3,750/- per household over the next three years.

Competition
Our industry comprises of both organized and unorganized players, therefore we face competition from both small players who belongs to unorganized sector and big players who have better resources availability.

Promoters

Promoters are Paramjit Singh Chatha, Gurcharan Singh Gosal, Gurpreet Chatha and Anmoldeep Singh.
Paramjit Singh Chatha aged 55 years, the Chairman and Managing Director of the Company and a member of the Promoter Category, has founded the Company. He was appointed the Managing Director of our Company, w.e.f. April 01, 1998. He has been actively involved in business planning, strategy development and expansion activities since the inception of our Company. He has an experience of 25 years and has been instrumental in expanding the operations of our Company. His leadership has contributed to the growth of our business and the establishment of long term relationships with our customers. As the Managing Director, Paramjit Singh Chatha is responsible for
developing and maintaining the company’s vision, mission statement, and strategic plan. He reviews financial statements and other reports to evaluate the Company’s performance. Furthermore, he identifies new opportunities for revenue growth, such as the introduction of new products, new customers and new businesses. He effectively communicates with employees to ensure they understand the Company’s goals, objectives, and policies.
Additionally, he evaluates new technologies and business practices to assess their potential impact on the Company’s operations and effective marketing strategy to promote the products offered by the Company.

Product Categories

(a) Non-Vegetarian: We manufacture and sell non-vegetarian products such as pizza toppings, sandwich fillings, burger patties, snacks and more to leading QSR’s, CDR’s and other HoReCa segment players.
(b) Vegetarian: We manufacture and sell vegetarian products such as pizza toppings, sandwich fillings, burger patties, taco fillings to leading QSR’s, CDR’s and other HoReCa segment players. We ventured into vegetarian products in the year 2022.
(c) Plant-Based: We manufacture and sell plant-based products such as plant-based sausages, salami, pepperoni; Indian snacks like kebabs, tikkas & samosas; plant-based nuggets & burger patties, grilled burger patties to certain QSRs, CDRs and other HoReCa segment players. Additionally, we supply our products to larger conglomerates and other companies under their own brand names, including Bluetribe (Alkem Group), Shaka Harry (Liberate Foods), Green Bird (Continental Coffee), Plantaway (Graviss Group), and many others. We ventured into plant-based mock meat products in the year 2021.

Revenue Mix

Volume Mix

Installed Capacity

Key Customers

Ratios

Figures in Rs. Crores

Mar 2019 Mar 2020 Mar 2021 Mar 2022 Mar 2023
Debtor Days 37 26 39 32 30
Inventory Days 27 34 33 38 39
Days Payable 55 59 64 59 48
Cash Conversion Cycle 9 1 7 11 21
Working Capital Days 3 -5 4 -1 15
ROCE % 10% -16% 7% 15%

Key Risks:

  • Heavy Reliance on Non-Vegetarian Segment: Chatha Foods derives a significant portion of its revenue from non-vegetarian products. A shift in consumer preferences towards vegetarianism or a negative event impacting the meat industry (e.g., disease outbreak) could significantly impact their sales and profitability.
  • Financial Performance: The company has a history of negative cash flow and has a low profit margin on its products.
  • Competition from Established Players: Large FMCG companies like ITC, Nestle, Unilever etc, plus players like Venky’s Godrej Agrovet, etc. would have strong brand recognition and distribution networks. Also companies like These companies Kare Foods, Prabhat Foods, may target specific niches or offer premium products, which could eat up Chatha’s market share.
  • Start-ups in the meat alternatives space: The growing demand for plant-based protein could pose a threat in the long run.
  • Low liquidity: Being a small company on the SME board, it has very low liquidity.
  • Lack of Analyst Coverage: There is currently a lack of analyst coverage for Chatha Foods, making it difficult to get professional insights into the company’s future prospects.

Disclosure: Have taken a small tracking position in last 10 days.

Thanks,
Dhaval Patel (SMEmitra)

6 Likes

The thesis in nutshell is as follows:

  1. Its a proxy play for the QSR Industry expected to grow at 20% CAGR
  2. Big clientele names: CCD, Subway, Dominos, Burger Singh, Wok express etc.
  3. Capacity utilization is 68% (Non-Veg) 27% (Veg)
  4. Margin is sustainable and expected to improve from next year.
  5. Newly annouced entry into North India QSR market.
  6. Good interest from investors. Already 17.67% is held by DIIs. Low float may work for it.

Anti-Thesis pointers:

  1. Competition from both organized and unorganized players may erode the margins. (H1 OPM was 9%)
  2. Management is not giving aggressive guidance
  3. SME stock with low liquidity and hence easy to manipulate.
  4. Many stocks underperform in near to medium term after IPO. It’s a newly listed scrip.
  5. Not covered by RAs, hence possibility of many unknown risks.
3 Likes

Chatha Foods Ltd’s management had two Analysts/Investors meetings in the month of April. Below are the notes for the same:

Business:

  • For contract manufacturing, logistics is handled by the QSR client
  • Own brands have higher margins and is currently 10% of the total revenue
  • CFL has a tie up with a company called Jyoti International for logistics of its own brands
  • On an average 5 months are required from product development to final on boarding of customer
  • FY24 Veg segment volume: ~300 MT

Product Realizations:

  • Veg: INR 220-230/Kg
  • Non Veg: INR 300-330/Kg
  • Plant based: 450-500/Kg

Customers:

  • Associated with Subway and Domino’s for more than half a decade
  • Dominos & Subways contributed to 70% of the revenue in FY24
  • Management claims 90% of Subway’s chicken requirements are met by them
  • Taco Bell and Burger King were recently added as their customers
  • Already producing two products for Haldiram. In talks to further expand their portfolio.

Manufacturing Facility:

  • CFL has one manufacturing facility situated in Mohali. It has two units both operating 2 shifts
  • 80% is the maximum utilization that the company can achieve
  • Veg and plant based capacities are fungible

IPO:

  • CFL came out with an IPO of INR 34 crores which was entirely a fresh issue of 59.62 lakh shares.
  • IPO proceeds are mainly going to be used to set up a new manufacturing facility for vegetarian business
  • New plant is expected to be commissioned by March 2025
  • In the new facility, company will be putting up frozen to fry line for own brands and exports, ready to eat line for both frozen and ready to eat products like dals, rajma, paneer gravies, Indian breads like naan, kulcha, Malabari, paratha and also spring rolls

Distribution Network:

  • Own brands, which sells under “Chatha Foods” are distributed through a network of 29 distributors across 32 cities in India which caters to 126 mid segment & standalone small QSR brands.
  • Looking to add 40 more distributors in Q4FY23 in the North India

Contracts:

  • General/quantity contracts are for 2-3 years
  • Price contracts are renewed every year

Management Guidance:

  • No intent of venturing into B2C business
  • Chicken business is expected to grow at 5-10%
  • Veg will not be a single digit growth story. Expected to grow more than the chicken business.
  • Expects 40% of the revenue to come from own brands in 2 years. Currently present only in Punjab, Chandigarh and Delhi NCR. Trying to go pan-India by end of this year
5 Likes

Since the business relies a lot on jubilant foodworks and Subway, how do they maintain good cash flow and how do these giants now keep payment in receivables?

2 Likes

Something to add to the company thread… good summary

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In the last few months, there have been a lot of Analyst calls that Chatha has participated in, the good thing about the company is that they share the chat transcripts of closed group analyst calls as well.
I went through all of the available transcripts from July24 to Dec24, have noted key points and my thoughts below.

Key Points from the call transcripts
FY24 full year concall (July’24)

  1. New Veg Capex to operationalise by March’25. At its peak, the veg plant will have a capacity of 14000-15000MT. 60% of the new veg line to be flat bread line. Additional 70-75MT per month capacity will be added to the Non Veg line as well. First 6 months of capacity utilization will be around 35%, second year targeting utilization around 65%.
  2. Current Capacity of 450MT per month (almost all Non Veg)~ 5400MT. Current OPM is 9%
  3. Will be targeting Middle East, USA and European market from the new veg line
  4. Margins to expand substantially in the new veg line as flat breads have substantially higher margins. Projecting to double the revenue by FY 27 and double PAT by FY28-29. OPM should be around 10-11%.
  5. Not affected much by RM volatility. Annual price contracts with the chicken/vegetable suppliers and annual price contracts with the customers
  6. Labour need will go up by 50-60% at peak utilization of new capacity
  7. 75% revenue from top 2 customers

There have been a few more calls with institutional investors since July, the essence of the conversations have remained the same except for a few key developments.

  1. Company is entering into a 70:30 JV with Allana group. Allana group is a leader in frozen meat in India and has a good base in exports. The JV will create value added products for Allana’s export market (i am assuming this will be conversion of raw meat into sausages, nuggets and other ready to cook items)
  2. The Capex number for the new Veg plant has increased from 38 Cr to 44Cr. Additionally, Chatha is immediately raising 40 Cr / 14 Cr (different numbers at different places, maybe transcribing error) for the JV
  3. Targeting OPM of 13-14% by FY28.
  4. New combined production capacity post CAPEX will be 6k+6K+14K MT (current + new JV + new Veg plant)
  5. Revenue and profit guidance has changed to 3x revenue and 6x PAT in FY 28 (from previous guidance of doubling revenue by FY28).

My Views:

With the advent of cloud kitchen, QSRs and 10 min deliver cafes (Zepto cafe/Bistro) there has been increasing demand for quickly prepared food. This is fueling the need for pre processed ready to assemble ingredients, the demand for Chatha’s products would thus continue to grow.
With the new JV, it seems that Chatha would not have to worry about business development, they can directly use Allana’s current distribution network for its products.
The new flatbread plant can be a game changer as margins for carb based products is much higher than protein based products. The veg plant gives them the optionality to venture into desserts as well.

With an additional capital of ~80 Cr ( 40 Cr for CAPEX and 40 Cr for JV), company is guiding to increase the PAT to 6X of FY24. This should increase their ROCE to 25-30%.
The stock is currently trading at market cap of Rs 300 Cr with a PE of 50. If we conservatively expect the PAT to 3x in FY28 (from FY24) with an assumed exit PE of 25, FY 28 target Mcap should at least be Rs 450 Cr.
Following management commentary of 6X PAT gives a bull case Mcap of 900 (conservative exit PE of 25)

Concern - Around 40 Cr of capacity including around 10Cr of building + land is expected to go live by Mar’25 yet there has been no increase in gross block or CWIP in Sept’24 reporting.

MD renumeration for FY24 was Rs 60 Lakhs - Will have to keep a eye on this, it is currently 10% of the company PAT.

Disclosure - Bought first tranche this week. Planning to add more in the next 6-8 months.

Regards,
Pratik Shetty

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Fy24 profit is 6 cr…six times of that means…36 cr by fy28…at a exit multiple of 25…market cap is 900 cr…current market cap is 300 cr…so price will become 390/- not 900 as mentioned

3 Likes

Thanks for the catch. Silly error from my side. Have edited my original post.

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