Hey Rudra,
I really liked your perspective. Your valuation method really changed the way I was looking at CCL. But still I have some points for a better discussion:
- Let look at the Domestic market as capacity wise:
Currently India consumes 20,000 tons of coffee, Japan at 30-35,000 and USA at 80,000.
Now, if we say that Instant Coffee market consumes grows at 12% for next 10 years the consumption would lead to 80,000 tons (Approx) from 20,000 tons currently, which is where current USA market is.
And wait, when one of our ValuePickr member met the management, they itself said that only 40% of the USA market is addressable which further reduces it to 24,000 tons.
Hence, my belief is quite less.
- I feel it might have grown at 12-15% maybe due to a small base number and going forward I doubt that number is going to grow at same rate.
As I highly believe India is Tea consuming nation and switching to Coffee would be like switching religion for some people (Same goes for coffee lovers!)
The reduction in the grow rate is visible through their annual reports, where in the recent 2019-20 Annual report the rate has fallen from 15 to 8%. But they have written it as a ‘guesstimate’.
But the reason for reduction could be COVID-19.
- Lower A&P spend as % of sales - A thought
Well, I agree with you that as B2C would start contributing the number would start getting better but what if Nestle decides to get into losses to maintain its market share?
Being a giant, I think they could afford that. (Just a thought not an argument)
I am still learning how to value businesses and I really liked how you have valued CCL. I would try to understand this and try to inculcate it into my learning.
The points being said, I would like to say that there might be a high possibility that, as I have sold the company these arguments have been formed with some bias of me not accepting my action of selling as a bad decision (Only time will tell whether the decision is right or not).
Hope these points add value to the discussion.
Regards,
Arjun Badola