Caution Investor Portfolio Please Review

Q&A: Questions & Answers Portfolio Q&A
45

Excellent Q2 numbers from PI Industries and Navin Fluorine today. Block Buster results from Laurus. And Few days back Aarti Drugs too came out with good numbers. Accordingly, I have Invested some amounts today in All of the above.

Right now, I am in a dilemma… just look at Asian Paints, Pidilite, Nestle, Kotak - Even in this down markets, they are running away beyond our reach! whereas the value stocks like ITC, L&T, etc are going down and down.

I have decided to concentrate on Pharma - Specialty Chemicals, IT and one or two FMCG.

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46

S R F & PIDILITE Have come up with superb Q2 numbers last week. I Have Increased my positions In both reasonably.

Dabur…
Revenues, Profits, margins and volume all grown inline with other FMCG’s.
Increasing Market Share in Chyavanaprash, Tooth paste, and Shampoo. Double-Digit Growth in Honey & Hair oils.

Just when Marico Came with Similar-looking Honey, they came with Dabur Honey with Tulsi and Ashwagandha - That’s always a step ahead of competition.

They have introduced so many new products in all category:
Green Tea with immunity Boosters. Baby care range. Apple Cider Vinegar. New Dant Rakshak Tooth paste. Aloe Vera and Badam Varients in Amla Hair oil. Low Calorie Real juice. Sugar cane Juice and Tender coconut water.

New Dabur Home Made Chutney Range, Imli sauce, Pickles range…

What I even liked more is the packaging of the products they look so bright and colorful!

In their Investor Presentation itself there is a link on number of products where you click and see their adverts/communication on YouTube! - Very Innovative.

There is an overall feel-good factor about the presentation.

So, without going too much into financials - valuations etc, I have taken an initial tracking position in Dabur.

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47

Here is an update on my portfolio (Since my last post on Nov 8, 2020)…

I have Increased allocation in HDFC LTD, CIPLA, Deepak Nitrite, Alkyl Amine, HDFC Life, Abbott, and Pidilite. I have Added Nestle, Tata Consumer, and Escorts to my portfolio

I have been adding Cash from my savings, hence cash component in my portfolio too has increased a little bit. Also, my wife has managed a job and she is taking care of investment in PMSSY scheme,
which frees up some more cash for me to invest in Stocks.

My Current Portfolio with Avg Purchase Price and %ge Allocation (calculated on buy value and not on Current value):

RELIANCE … | 1250 | 2.92
DMART … | 1900 | 2.53
L&T … | 890 | 0.89

HDFC BANK … | 1050 | 1.05
HDFC LTD … | 2063 | 2.06
CAMS … | 1428 | 0.67

DR REDDY’S … | 4090 | 1.64
CIPLA … | 654 | 1.31
DIVI’S … | 2530 | 2.19
ALEMBIC … | 801 | 1.07
LAURUS … | 267 | 1.60
GRANULES … | 360 | 1.44
AARTI DRUGS . | 673 | 1.57
GMM PFAUDLR . | 3475 | 0.70

PI INDS … | 1082 | 1.92
SRF … | 3893 | 1.56
NAVIN FLUO … | 1919 | 1.41
DEEPAK NITR . | 638 | 1.36
ALKYL AMINE . | 3151 | 1.26

HUL … | 2222 | 0.44
DABUR … | 509 | 0.51

INFY … | 1025 | 1.37
HCL TECH … | 777 | 1.04

ESCORTS … | 1210 | 0.73
MINDA INDS … | 288 | 0.40
GARWARE TECHN | 1296 | 0.43

The SIP Portfolio…
KOTAK MAH … | 1411 | 1.41
HDFC LIFE … | 538 | 1.08
ABBOTT … | 15376 | 2.05
NESTLE … | 16610 | 1.11
TATA CONSUMER | 505 | 1.18
PIDILITE … | 1433 | 1.34
TCS … | 2516 | 1.17

With this, my equity portfolio share Increased to about 43%. PMSSY Scheme is at 19.3%. I have about 37.7% Cash which I wish to invest during Q3 & Q4 results.

As it is, the portfolio has returned about 30% profit - but during March-April market fall, I had some panic selling at loss - considering which my return would be about 25%. This is a terrific return in such a short time. But I feel This is a raging bull market, In which a newbie like me too feel euphoric and great. But few days back NIFTY suddenly went down by 400-500 points which pulled me to the ground.

I have been teaching my wife some very minimum basic things of equity investments - like Checking Demat Accounts, Interaction with Stock brokers, how to buy and sell shares, Broker to Bank A/c transactions, Ledger and Contract Note reports etc… For this reason, I have created a SIP portfolio within portfolio. My aim is that this portfolio should support us during our retirement/old age. Should something happen to me, my wife may sell all other stocks and continue to invest in SIP stocks.

Regarding Stocks, I have been telling my wife which are the bluest of blue chip companies currently which require minimum tracking. Whenever there is time, she is going thru our own ValuePickr Forum. I have given her a kind of home work - that in one month or so, she should suggest One stock for my SIP portfolio :slight_smile:

I Wish happy and prosperous New Year to all ValuePickrs.

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48

Hey just a thought you may ignore if not important to you. Not sure why you calculate allocation based on buy value but I feel true analysis by self and any thought sharing by others would be better if we do on allocation based on current value. Say for example, you may start with x% of two stocks so buy price allocation would be same but in due course because of recent run up one of them now holds say 80% of portfolio and happen to be a a risky sector or a small cap etc. So would be good if we look at our portfolio from current value and current allocation basis and simply forget the buy value and anything related to buy side…as that’s done and history and current is something that we need to analyse and work upon. Thanks

49

I have never seen a better portfolio bought/entered at good valuations. Kudos to you .
Although I am now more puzzled than before. Almost all your stocks & allotment percentages are similar to mine and several other investors also have the same combination. This worries me of almost index type returns despite putting in work (tracking & churns). What’s your take on that ?

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@Investor_No_1 : That makes lot of sense! But, I have some confusion how to track my portfolio…

Let’s say I have 100 Rs to be Invested. I will put Rs. 40 Into 4 equity stocks; Rs. 20 into mutual funds, and Rs. 10 into debt instruments like PMSSY etc. I still have Rs. 30 to be invested. How should I calculate allocation?

  1. Should I consider Rs. 40 as my equity part and 25% allocation in each stocks. Here my Initial Investment of Rs. 40 itself will vary as per stock movements?

  2. Consider Rs. 100 and 10% x 4 stocks = 40% equity, 20% mutual funds and 10% debt and 30% cash?

If I sell 1 stock, what happens to the cash? as per my current method, the cash component increases and equity portion decreases. Should I completely ignore Cash/Mutual fund/debt part and only consider equity part. Let’s say, I sell 1/2 portion of a stock at profit, should I bring down my Initial buy price of remaining potion of the stock (for calculating returns)? Because of all this, I have chosen easy way.

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51

@vibhor_vaish
I have not tried to compare my portfolio stocks return v/s Index return over say 10-15 years. I hope that these have reasonably outperformed Index and Mutual fund returns.

I am not sure about your thinking. Do You feel that these stocks are priced to perfection and hence returns will be limited? I do not have expertise or experience to research. I read Annual reports and Investor Presentations to get conviction in a stock. I check Screener for basic fundamental analysis. I track Quarterly results to increase allocation etc. I have less than a year experience in equities and have witnessed depression and euphoria in this short period!

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52

I think to answer your above questions - best is to each his own methods.
But like I said, I would try to ignore buy price as much possible to concentrate on today.

Also, I would try to do analysis on equity alone - rest debt, MF parts etc. would keep rough track but say the monthly or any regular tracking - would try to concentrate on just equity and current values - the two things where action or inaction is needed and what matters…

So, once you do your high level allocation to just equity based on your risk profile etc. - just forget everything else and concentrate on equity and current value…the two things that matter…

Regarding cash levels also, you can just keep rough value at back of your mind and not overdo it in your portfolio analysis because if one thinks, cash is something which can be generated from your portfolio shares with just a click and you can buy something else within moments from the trade limit…so I don’t see much point in overdoing cash calculation…But agree, follow principals of having some spare cash based on one’s risk profile again…if you doing that then no point in making things complicated with cash…

Still …do what suits you and works for you…Thanks

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53

I will definitely consider this for my next portfolio update.

I was just reading @sahil_vi portfolio and Sequent Scientific seemed very interesting. I have read the thread and Q2 investor presentation. I have taken Initial Investment.

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54

I invested in LandT at bottom outs and now sitting on hefty 72 percent rise! Its a market leader.

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55

Now with their Investments in LTTS, LTI, and Mindtree, L&T is a Quasi MidCap IT Player!

There is nice thread on L&T by @nav_1996 You can read if you have not already metallica bro.

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56

I have added IDFC First bank to my portfolio. It’s at reasonable valuation. There is certain honesty and humble about Vaidyanathan. I feel He is a visionary!

Number of companies in my portfolio is getting more by the day. Based on next 2 Quarterly results I will trim my portfolio.

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I have used current Dip in Markets to Increase my holding in Dr. Reddy’s, Cipla, Divi’s, Laurus, Sequent Scientific, HCL Tech, Infosys, and IDFC First Bank.

I have taken Starting positions in Quality Midcaps - Astral Polytech, Havells, Kajaria, Poly MediCure, Tata Elxsi, Metropolis and Unique Business of CDSL and IEX.

I have increased holding in my SIP portfolio - HDFC and Kotak Mahindra Bank- added Asian Paints.

I have exited Abbott due to high valuations and thinking of selling Dr. Reddy’s, Cipla, and Granules and adding some quality small caps like JB Chem, Neuland, Racl Geartech, Acrysil and Mastek ETC.

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58

Hello Guys! I am updating my portfolio after some time.

SCRIP | Allocation% | CMP% (As on 26/6/21)

Core Portfolio:

RELIANCE…| 4.0 | 6.7
TCS …| 3.7 | 4.6
HDFC LTD…| 3.9 | 4.6
KOTAKBANK | 3.5 | 4.0
BAJFINANCE | 2.9 | 3.9
BAJAJFINSV… | 2.6 | 3.4
DIVISLAB…| 5.3 | 7.8
HINDUNILVR…| 2.3 | 2.5
TATACONSUM | 3.0 | 4.2
ASIANPAINT…| 2.1 | 2.7
PIDILITE…| 2.8 | 3.9
MOStN100 ETF | 1.3 | 1.4 (Thanks @Tar)

Satellite Portfolio:

DMART…| 3.5 | 6.1
L&T…| 1.9 | 2.9
DRREDDY…| 3.4 | 4.4
LAURUSLABS…| 4.4 | 8.9
JBCHEPHARM…| 1.8 | 2.3
NEULANDLAB…| 1.9 | 1.8
SEQUENT…| 1.8 | 2.5 (Thanks @Sahil_vi)
PIIND…| 3.1 | 4.8
SRF…| 2.7 | 4.5
NAVINFLUOR…| 3.1 | 5.0
DEEPAKNTR…| 2.8 | 6.2
GALAXYSURF…| 2.0 | 2.5
INFY…| 2.7 | 4.0
TATAELXSI…| 2.8 | 4.1
MASTEK…| 2.4 | 4.2 (Thanks Sahil_vi)
LALPATHLAB…| 2.2 | 2.6
METROPOLIS…| 1.9 | 3.0
MINDAIND…| 1.2 | 2.2
GARFIBRES…| 1.9 | 3.3
ASTRAL… 1.5 | 2.1
KAJARIACER…| 1.0 | 1.1
IDFCFIRSTB…| 1.2 | 1.6
CAMS…| 1.9 | 3.3
CDSL…| 2.4 | 4.4
ANGELBRKG…| 1.6 | 2.2 (Thanks Sahil_vi )
RACLGEAR…| 1.1 | 1.4 (Thanks Sahil_vi)
PIXTRANS…| 1.2 | 2.0
PRINCEPIPE…| 1.2 | 1.3
IEX…| 0.9 | 1.0
KILPEST…| 0.8 | 1.0 (Thanks Sahil_vi)

I Have Adopted the Concept of Core and Satellite Portfolio. In Core, I whish to hold Stocks for Decades with minimum churn… But the churn did happen :slightly_smiling_face: I Added

  1. Bajaj Finance. It was there in my PF pre-COVID times but during March Market sell-off I panicked and sold off. Realized my mistake and bought it during April 2021 correction. As I Studied deeper, I found that Bajaj Finserve Holds 53% of Bajaj Finance and 74% each in Life and General Insurance. Eventhough maximum Profit contribution came from Bajaj Finance, PAT Component of General Insurance Jumped from 158 Cr to 400 Cr and Life Insurance PAT Contribution jumped from 147 Cr to 312 Cr. For 9-month period also Bajaj Finance contribution reduced from 74% to 46% and General and Life Insurance Incresed from 17% to 33% and 11% to 22% respectively. It was very clear - the Insurance businesses are doing very well. I was in confusion - Bajaj Finance or Finserve. So, I soldoff 45% of Bajaj Finance and Bought Finserv. Now, the Holding company Bajaj Finserve is getting into many new businesses like Digital healthTech and eCommerce etc. They are creating a one-stop-shop Super App. Things are very exciting here!

  2. Asian Paints and Pidilite - Consistently compounding as far as share prices and concerned - Where earnings have to catch-up with valuations.

  3. Motilal Oswal Nasdaq 100 ETF. I was always fascinated about the FANG-type companies of US - but resigned to the fact that I would never be able to invest there. Thanks to @Tar - following his Portfolio, found that I can have an exposure to top 100 US stocks (Ex Financials).

I Sold off:

  1. HDFC BANK - Wanted to Bring down weightage to Financials in the Core. I already have HDFC Ltd which holds 21% in HDFC Bank.

  2. HDFC Life - Again HDFC Ltd Holds about 50% In HDFC Life. I have indirect expsore to Life Insurance businesses via Bajaj Finserv and KOTAK Mahindra Bank.

  3. NESTLE and ABBOTT - A vague feeling that HUL / Tata Consumer and DIVI’s are better bets. It also helps to reduce number of stocks in the Portfolio.

In Satellite Portfolio, I Invest in Mid and Small Cap Growth Stocks. I wish to generate Alpha. Changes to the Satellite Portfolio:

I have Sold off Cipla, Alembic (No profit), Granules (at Loss), Aarti Drugs, GMM Pfaudler, Alkyl Amine, HCL Tech, Dabur, and Escorts.

I am very bullish about Home Improvement / Building materials space - So added Astral and Kajaria. I have fully read the topics of Astral, Price pipes and also gone thru The Investor Presentations and Concalls of Astral as well as Prince Pipes to build Conviction.

I feel Diagnostics has lot of scope to grow post COVID and added First Metropolis and then Dr. LAL Pathlabs.

Galaxy Surfactants: Leading Supplier of Ingredients for Home and Personal Care products of major FMCG players Multinational and Regional. They have more than 1000 clients - Present in 80+ Countries. They claim to be growing faster than Home and Personal Care FMCG companies. Good Balance Sheet and Financials. I consider them to be a FMCG rather than a Chemical Company!

I have taken out Cipla and Invested in Promising Small Cap Pharma - JB Chemicals and Neuland. Same way Sold off HCL Tech and bought Tata Elxsi and Mastek.

Now Most Exciting - The Financialization Theme! I already have CAMS - I have a thread on it here in ValuePickr’s :slightly_smiling_face: Continuing, Added CDSL and Angel Broking.

Finally, what I call Kids Pack - RACL, PIX, PRINCE, IEX, and KILPEST. These are experimental Starting positions.

I closely follow @sahil_vi bro’s portfolio. Whatever he touches turns into Gold! But rest assured I do not follow Blindly. I do my own research to be convicted on these Ideas.

Sorry if the post gone too long. I will take any suggestions Positively. Thank You Brothers.
(Edit: Sorry Initial part got Bolded - I don’t know how. I just copy pasted from Notepad)

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59

kilpest & prince pioes seem to be good finds…

60

Isn’t Navin fluoride overvalued.At a PE of 70 there are better choices in the chemical sector

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Was reading through this thread and was nice to see your journey as an investor. This comment really hit home, because it shows that sometimes common sense and sensible disciplined investing can far outweigh any amount of analysis one can do. The novice investors who bought these 2 companies are now laughing their way to the bank, provided they still hold it.

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62

@Amritasen22 - I do not know how to value a stock. When I first bought Navin, it was around 25 PE which was reasonable at that time.

Frankly, I do not have any stock picking framework. I am mostly Interested in midcap stocks - where I closely follow Quarterly investor presentations. I read annual reports. Basically I try to understand opportunity size - steps managements are taking for future growth. What is their capex plans etc. I listen to concalls with Interest - to get a feeling how confident the management is in expressing their views.

For Large-cap stocks like Reliance, TCS, HDFC, HUL, Kotak, Asian Paints, Pidilite etc what is there to research? I want longevity - I want these stocks to be still there when my Kid grown-up.

For small-cap stocks - I am very embarrassed to say this - I am not capable of discovering them. I cannot do deep research. I just leech on valuepickr guys and if I am convinced, I just buy small quantity and then add on if story plays out :slightly_smiling_face:

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63

Small update: I Have completely Sold off DMART and Invested the amounts on Praj and Strides.

DMART - Increasing competitive intensity by Online Players. Valuations not giving comforts. Moreover I am unable to decide if I could move it into my core portfolio.

During this weekend, I read entire thread on Praj. I feel there is lot of growth triggers in their core business of ethanol. There is lot going on in the background in Praj Matrix - their R&D Centre.

Strides - I thank @Tar bro for his excellent analysis.

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64

I had applied for Clean Science IPO - did not get allotment. I wished to have it in my portfolio, but did not wanted to allocate fresh capital. So, I sold Minda Industries exactly at double of my purchase price and deployed 60% of the proceeds into Clean Science. I just traded off one highly valued company with another.

I already have about 18% cash and today I have also trimmed little bit of CDSL, Dr. Reddy’s, Infosys etc and accumulated about 25% of Cash. I have applied for Tatva Chintan IPO.

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