Hello Fellow Investors,
I would appreciate your views on my Growth Portfolio for a Long term Duration (10+ years). I want to cut down the number of stocks to 16-18 range. I am eager to know if you see any businesses where you have encountered a Red Flag. I am looking at an expectation of 20% CAGR
CDMO Bet || Laurus labs, Neuland, Syngene, Sequent || In b/w these businesses we have more than 300 plus Molecules in different stages, rest API, biosimilar, etc is optionality for me.
Emerging Tech || Tata Elxsi, Intellect Design || Huge Growth potential with Great Margins
Entertainment || Saregama, Nazara Tech || Music & Gaming Tailwinds
Chemical || Deepak Nitrite || Consistent Performance with Decent margins
Financials || Federal Bank, Manapuram || Old bank with Lindy effect has decent tech exposure & Other is proxy for Gold as I hold none in PF.
Alpha Bets || Kilpest, Tarsons || Microcap with great potential and abundant cash courtesy Covid & Tarsons has good market share and growth prospects.
Auto Ancillary || Sona Comstar || Electric vehicles potential and best in Industry
Diagnostics || Thyrocare || Decent market share and Good growth potential especially in B2B
Platforms || IEX, CDSL, IndiaMart || Good growth potential without sacrificing margins or Capex requirement
FMCG || Amrutanjan, Radico Khaitan || Decent Marketshare with Growth foresight
Pipes || Supreme Industries || Exposure to pipes, plastics, packaging, all with strong tailwinds
All your picks have got good fundamentals & quality. However, most of them are trading at/above its intrinsic value. There are high chances for price corrections in them.
As profit is decided when you buy and mostly not when you sell, you should be cautious about the entry time in order to achieve 20% CAGR growth. There should be at least 30% margin of safety as all the mentioned stocks have got fair economic moats.
Laurus Labs - Promoters holding is reducing in recent years
Kilpest - The huge rise in the cash flow is only because of RTPCR kits. Even calculating the intrinsic value with that cash flow is not logical. As RTPCR kits` requirement is uncertain in the future.
Some of my Buys are pre-pandemic and some are post, So I am trying to keep up with the valuations and Deploying capital on dips/corrections.
And I am Treating Kilpest as a SPAC , Promotors have done good job till now, Lets see how they utilize the capital now.
For Laurus Labs, Lets see if this effects negatively in next few quaters…Business performance is as per thesis till now.
Great selection of good sound stocks. The only thing I would add to these stocks would be some of the Large Cap Biggies that could give you much more stability in the portfolio value by reducing the beta on the portfolio.
With Indian Companies and Stocks, reducing the Beta on portfolio is not that easy, but if you can go in the dividend paying stocks (consistent), then it would work well. HUL, RIL, TaMo, LnT, HDFC Bank, SBI, INFY, TCS etc. These are old blue chips, but that is what creates the stability by going into these mega-mkt-caps.
Thanks, KKP for your input, as the name suggests it’s my growth-oriented portfolio. I hold the blue-chips that you mentioned along with the index in my family portfolio which is oriented towards less volatile and steady long term returns.