CAGR expectation and experience

Dear value pickers

All of us here are from varied backgrounds and experiences in market. One thing which matters most wherever we put money is cagr with which we grow it.

Can all of us share their past cagr experience and future expectation

I feel this exercise will make us more mature as an investing group, will rationalise our expectations and make us realise how we are faring vis a vis peers and in isolation… thanks.

My cagr for last 10 years in direct equity has been 12 percent and my expectation is 15 percent plus.

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It is an excellent idea.

I would suggest that people also share how much they got and how they made it possible by investing in what type of Companies large caps mid caps small caps liquid funds gold etc. so that the reader gets an idea about the underlying risk one took to get that sort of Returns.

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Though I started investing since 2005 but I have started tracking closely my returns from Dec 2012. You can check my PF returns here Govind's portfolio

Please note that mean reversion happens to any investor though his/her returns look great or abysmal low depending on the phase of the market he entered.

If an investor is new to market, over reaction to the above returns lead to underperformance over the longer term with respect to the market.

As long as one manages actively, has good quality stocks, a little luck with the timing, he/she can generate alpha over the longer term. Performance over the shorter duration cannot be extrapolated.

BTW 12% is a good CAGR. Please check what else you could have done better to generate 3% more to reach your target CAGR. May be % allocation, timing the entry/exit, asset allocation, staying contrarian, sticking to your investment philosophy etc

Did you add dividend yield to your total returns?

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I see in your post that your portfolio CAGR as on Dec 2018 was 25% for 6 years. This is great performance. Did you get it from buy and hold strategy or regular churning? What’s the CAGR as on today? For me, I have not included dividends as they are insignificant at the moment I feel. Also I recently booked loss in Max india so that would negate the dividends recieved easily.
I was generating close to 18% CAGR few months back. I feel I can reach my target figures by doing some churning…as I have been on buy on hold strategy only so far…I have now started some churning, so far not convinced by my skill in churning…need to see how it goes…

Stock market will give you risk adjusted returns.

If you rightly invest in Small Caps and mid caps returns around 20% are possible. In large caps around 12%. A smallCap PF has volatility and low liquidity, therefore one cannot invest a larger chunk of his networth.

So, it is a good idea to buy MF for small caps like investment. Unless, you really know a company and it’s industry well.

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Can you suggest good small cap MFs? Dsp micro used to be good until last year when it really crashed. More than the crash I was concerned with BlackRock out of picture, how should one look at dsp. Also I feel really annoyed sometimes when I see small cap funds holding HDFC bank or an Infosys…So, which are true great small cap funds?

Also can u share ur experience and CAGR details. Thanks

I follow core and satellite portfolio strategy. Core is sort of buy and hold and satellite includes cyclicals, potential winners, undervalued stocks and dividend yield stocks. Portfolio will be always mulitcap in nature. Aim is to have lowest churning (low cost), better risk adjusted return with some alpha over a multicap fund category average or a multicap index ETF. Ideally getting this combination in real time is very difficult but that separates a seasoned investor from an amateur like me. I am trying my best to learn the art but miles away. Let’s see how it goes :slightly_smiling_face:

Bit surprised this thread didn’t really take off.

I am very new to active investing, started only in May so absolute return is a decent 16%. Guess I got lucky due to the bull run, yet have underperformed the market mainly because I accumulate every month and so there has been an averaging on the upside.

My expectation in the long term is an ambitious 20%.

Thanks for taking this subject for discussion.
I am very great full to this forum for giving new bees like us an opportunity to learn from here.
Started Investing back in 2012 for couple of years and finally sold all my stocks with heavy loss as I was mainly investing based on gossips and TV News. Recently from March 2020 got motivated by this forum and started having a concentrated Portfolio (SIP Mode) of 7 Stocks and getting an average 28% return, again this return is mainly due to the Bull Run happening now. Daily it is a new learning for me and the end goal is to have a PF of 12 to 15 Stocks and maintain an average CAGR of 15% to 20% in long run.

Mr. Ramesh Damani (Chairman-Dmart) says by investing 10 lakhs you can convert into 100 crores. Is this too ambitious or still possible?


Can some please share any excel template to calculate the CAGR?

Yes it’s possible. But requires cagr of 26% continuously for 30 years. That is a lot of efficient investing. It’s possible but takes lot of time and effort. Lot of reading concalls, annual reports, research reports, industry reports etc.

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Please have a look at Mohnish Pabrai’s Compounding Presentation,which makes the same point.

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