We have to see how the technology evolves and how fast the Auto industry responses.
However, Two major factors which could influence Govt decision and force Industry to adopt technology (1) Sustainability with refrence to carbon footprint (2) Atma Nirbhar Bharat
When we import something , the price we have to pay for imports is decided by the seller nation and that would depend upon many factors such as demand -supply, the cost of production of that item in that country and Geo political situations.
Look at what happened recently to Semiconductors - it crippled the auto industry.
& the pharma industry where our pharma companies / Speciality chemicals import most critical API’s and / the KRM ( key raw material) from China and China plays their card whatever way they want- raise price for key raw material to Indian buyers and dump finished products at other countries.
And Look at crude oil price , it was 20-30 USD per barrel a couple of years back…And today hovering around 95 USD.
EV may evolve at its own pace depending upon the Govt subsidy which they started in 2015 with FAME1 and in 2019- FAME 2 which now they have withdrawn and the industry response.
However, if our discovery of lithium mines in J&K comes true , it would be beneficial…But we have to see what is the extent reserve and then mining refining also calls for investments.
But we still have to import cobalt and nickel.
Alternatively , if the technology evolves with low cost Sodium ion battery which Reliance trying to do could also be a game changer for EV.
Moreover , A very recent IIT kanpur study indicates that EV has more carbon foot print / emissions than Hybrid and conventional petrol diesel engines- is something an area of concern which the western world is also taking seriously. While details of the study is available in public domain, an article which describes in brief is given below for our understanding.
The study compared the emissions of EVs, Hybrids, and conventional petrol cars throughout their lifecycle, including production, maintenance, and recycling. Results revealed that EVs emit 187 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer (gCO eq./km), while hybrids emit 167 gCO eq./km. In contrast, regular petrol cars emit 244 gCO eq./km. The cars used for the analysis focused on the petrol and electric variants of the Tata Nexon and Maruti Suzuki’s hybrid Grand Vitara.
So, Is Hybrid the future for India ? only time could tell. But going by the technology , it is great for India because of following reasons.
(1) No need for charging battery …no plug … No need for any power
(2) No range issue
(3) Battery- minimal import dependence …Lead acid battery can also be used.
(4) Regenerative braking is used to generate electricity and charge battery and run engine
(5) Milage better than EV because brake energy don’t go waste .
(6) What is most important is the engine can run on Petrol Ethanol blend up to 20% and later the engine can run with flex fuel up to 100% ethanol with technology upgradation. Brazil already has 34 million flex vehicles.
So , Who moved my Cheese ???
Guess what , gradually the Hybrids EV cars are increasing than pure EV’s. and the hybrid numbers sold during oct 2022 to May 2023 equals Pure EV play.
Industry sales data shows that automobile makers sold 48,424 units of strong hybrid cars in the domestic market between October 2022 and May 2023, just about 600 units fewer than the 48,991 electric cars sold during the same period.
Maruti came out with mutual collaboration arrangement with Toyota to source their Hybrid technology and sell at a price to mass customers who in turn find it convenient and affordable than EV.
Maruti 's strategy is working out well. This is in spite of the fact that Hybrids GST taxed @ 43% against 5% on EV. So Hybrid carries no subsidy because of its petrol engine platform.
The research also revealed that the total Cost of Ownership (TCO) per kilometer for EVs and petrol-powered vehicles is approximately ₹13, while it stands at ₹14 for hybrids. However, when considering government subsidies for EVs, the TCO for hybrids falls to just ₹11 per kilometer. It stated that if hybrids receive similar incentives in the future, they could become the most cost-effective option.
The Govt has realised that Hybrids can run on ethanol and they may give similar subsidy to Hybrids or they even may lower subsidy on EV, if the industry does not respond with lower cost of production. And recently the minister has unveiled one 100% Ethanol hybrid…
After all Maruti is Maruti. They enjoy their leadership in the country in terms of car numbers and for their quality & service network for the last 38 years.
They are in a better position to quickly upgrade their Hybrid from petrol to ethanol and CNG to CBG.
Attaching few relevant news articles - good read
.