Bunny's portfolio

I am posting my portfolio for feedback from seniors and investors in these stocks.

My rules for investing

1). My Motto " stock selection effects Returns, Portfolio allocation effects Networth". Something I didn’t care a damn about till last year.

2). There’s a general discussion going on about Concentration Vs. Diversification. I’m favour of selecting the best horses with Minimum 4 and Maximum 10. You may note here that the limit for 10 stocks is due to limited availability of capital and due to Rule No. 1. The limits will increase as my savings increases hopefully :slight_smile:

3). One more disclosure to make is regarding the leverage. It may be reasonably assumed that i have minimum leverage of 10% at any point of time to maximum of 100%. so allocations may change overnight.

4). Performance matters only on the basis of company’s fundamentals and will be rewarded YoY with more purchases and Non- performers will be ruthlessly cut (sell off all the stock) after giving them reasonable time.

5). all the investments are made keeping in mind more than 10 years,however if some thing changes midway the stock may be sold in half an hour.

6). Cyclicals may be mostly avoided unless i have something sure to play, raising to the minimum.

And finally these rules are intended to keep me in check and the rules may change as time changes.

As on 15th Oct 2014

Page-34.34%; GRUH -15.34%; Repco-15.30%, Hawkins-14.43%, Ajanta Pharma-9.34%, HDFC Bank -4.57%, Nifty ETF-3.40%; Divis-2.52% L&T-0.76%

Bunny,

You mentioned max 100% leverage, how are you getting this much leverage ? also don’t you think 100% is too much ?

all the stocks are well researched and high quality businesses.

Hi Brijwanth,

All the investments are looking good. Hope the price was also paid reasonably. Your style looks like similar to Basant Mahaswari who used to leverage more and concentrated! Also he is also holding Page, Gruh, Repco, Hawkins, and HDFC Bank…

Happy Investing.

-Muthu

I think it would be a great sin to compare me with basant sir, he is a Wizard of the Indian Stock Market and I’m just a small investor influenced by his philospophies.

I’m not just adding returns because it would be a unfair comparison for 2 reasons:

1). I keep adding whenever i have savings thus eroding the returns % but increasing the total profit.

2). returns do change by a huge margin if markets are highly volatile. Thanks for the comments Muthukumar ji. I’m looking for one more good growth stock to add more returns/ more instability :). Please do not hesitate to post if you have any good name in mind cause i’m searching for it.

As on 15th Oct 2014

Page-34.34%; GRUH -15.34%; Repco-15.30%, Hawkins-14.43%, Ajanta Pharma-9.34%, HDFC Bank -4.57%, Nifty ETF-3.40%; Divis-2.52% L&T-0.76%

Please have a look at Kaveri Seeds (a good compounder from here) or Symphony (highly valued and look for consolidation to jump in) or PI industries (a good compounder from here) or Shilpa medicare (A very long term play).

Thank you mukhukumar ji for your stock picks. Symphony and Shipla Medicare do seem to be very good prospects.

Kaveri seeds and PI Industries are good companies but cyclical palys. Hence they violate my rule no 6.

Shilpa Medicare may have some news to report on their Vizag R&D plant due to cyclone effect (temporary loss) but seems to be a good play.

Hi Brijwanth,

Most of the selection is good. FMCG, Auto and Agro sectors stocks are missing. That sector also gave good returns in past.

Few good stocks : Atul Auto, Amaraja B, PI Ind, Dhanuka Agro, Emami, Relaxo Footwear

Latest portfolio holdings

Asset Name % Holdings

Page Industries 31.35%

GRUH Finance 19.94%

Repco Home Finance 14.67%

Hawkins Cooker 12.04%

Ajanta Pharma 9.02%

HDFC Bank 3.85%

Goldman Sachs Nifty - ETF 2.99%

Divi’s Laboratories 2.08%

Goldman Sachs Gold - ETF 1.68%

Kajaria Ceramics 1.68%

Larsen & Toubro 0.69%

There are some major and minor additions in the portfolio. Gruh’s allocation has increased thereby distorting the allocation % of others and 2 new entrants have come Kajaria Ceramics and Gold Bees. Both the entrants very small allocation (not beyond 10%).

In future, I wish to add stock checks on non- portfolio/ portfolio stocks, so that the thread becomes a continuous journey to summarize views rather than allocations only thread. Fellow boarders are advised to do a thorough check on the non-sense i write

As always members views, thoughts, suggestions are welcome.

HI Amit,

Thank you for your suggestions all the stocks you have mentioned are excellent picks to say the least. Auto and Agri are highly cyclical so they conflict my rule no. 6

You may have a doubt on why i selected Gold ETF if I was against cyclical. For the sake of my own memory, I will repeat the same.

“6. Cyclicals may be mostly avoided unless i have something sure to play, raising to the minimum.”

Gold is a Sure to play and i’m raising it to minimum or probably i have not raised it enough :slight_smile:

I have attached a chart on Gold have a look at it. Most of the intelligentsia says that all the things in world are bright hence gold may not raise for 5-10 years. But it takes only one horrible event to at least support the Gold’s raise back. Anyways my portfolio allocation is very small and dips are a good chance for me to raise it to minimum.

sorry for my long gold finger lecture

sayonara,

Brijwanth


sorry amit ji i forgot to add I have added Relaxo Footwear to my investigation list

Recently there has been huge amount of hullabaloo about MCX and itas value. There have been many prominent investors and Fund managers who have taken the call and purchased MCX, notable among them are Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Radhakishan Damani, Prof. Shivanand Mankekar, Kenneth Andrade & Prashant Jain. There I some counter view from Prof. Sanjay Bakshi as well on the ethical side. So I decided to find out if there was any coat tail for me or is it just a cigar butt.

MCX has huge NPM of 45-55%

Itas a monopoly as far as commodity business are concerned (except Agri)

The model seems to have fixed costs and any increase in turnover directly goes to profits

CFO as a % of NP has dropped

Turnover has decreased in fy14

June Q revenue is inline (no growth) but OPM took a hit like last yearas sep, dec qas.

Now RoE is only 12% with RoCE of 70%. So there must be lot of cash/ short term investments .

As per 2014 B.S. around 1140 Cr. was roughly in the form of Mutual Funds out of B.S. size of 1740 Cr.

The dividend income is pretty low at 2% and is at 6% if gains from sale are also counted. All in all itas in a situation similar to NMDC or coal india i.e. huge cash on B.S. but canat deploy @ same run rate.

With a new management i.e. KMBL things may change for better.The trailing pe is at 37.

But with the value gone away and the growth sputtering and moving. No additions right now.

P.S. fellow boarders I have written the above like an investigation commentary please let me know if itas ok to post in my portfolio thread

MCX B.S 2014

Portfolio update after long time

Asset Name % Holdings
Page Industries 32.27%
GRUH Finance 17.36%
Repco Home Finance 12.68%
Hawkins Cooker 11.05%
Ajanta Pharma 9.68%
Goldman Sachs Gold - ETF 4.51%
HDFC Bank 3.33%
Adi Finechem 2.83%
Kajaria Ceramics 2.63%
Divi's Laboratories 2.39%
Vinati Organics 1.27%
Total (Stocks) 100.00%

You have a really good portfolio.

Can you please educate me about your inclination of keeping your portfolio concentrated -i.e. limited to 10-11 scrips ?

Ya Arpit,

It is very simple there’s a theory on diversification which says that you need to invest in a Minimum of 30 stocks to diversify. If I invert it max. stocks should be less than 30 forconcentrate moreoverit its difficult to track news, share price, results of more than 10 companies unless you are a full time investor.

Latest portfolio changes:

Asset Name prev % Holdings
Page Industries 32.27% 31.02%
GRUH Finance 17.36% 17.82%
Repco Home Finance 12.68% 12.94%
Hawkins Cooker 11.05% 10.64%
Ajanta Pharma 9.68% 10.03%
Goldman Sachs Gold - ETF 4.51% 4.43%
HDFC Bank 3.33% 3.21%
Adi Finechem 2.83% 2.70%
Kajaria Ceramics 2.63% 2.47%
Vinati Organics 1.27% 2.37%
Divi's Laboratories 2.39% 2.36%
Total (Stocks) 100.00%

Small change due to doubling of Vinati Organics due to technical reasons, could not load it up due to car purchase. Don't Know why the promoters of Vinati also agree with me. Their purchase prices and date of purchase are added for the benefit of fellow boarders.


Hi Brijwanth

Good to see your top 5 holdings constituting 82% of your portfolio.

1). I m not so upbeat about Hawkins, not that it ll not do well but i feel there are better ideas.

2). Why Gold ETF? are you bullish on it ?

3). Whats your entry price in Ajanta? I m considering a switch from SUN Pharma to Ajanta. What is your opinion?

Also have a looks at my portfolio, and share your views.

http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/portfolio-q-a/380284167

Hi ravi,

The week gone by was hectic, hence could not check the Forum.

1). Hawkins is more about conviction, if you are convinced then only it’s better to buy hawkins

2). Gold ETF when i argued was @ 2380, it was more of an portfolio hedge for any bad news, which did happen.

3.With regard to Ajanta my initial entry price was 1717, but you may discount the fact that i buy when the prices raise. my latest purchase was @2401 albeit very small qty. Ajanta is right now a falling knife you never know how much it will fall. However in my humble opinion it is always a good stock to own.

Right now the best shots are:

1). Vinati

2). Kajaria ceramics

If you have conviction in the above you may purchase as it is technically the right time

since last time kajaria up 545 to 621

vinati up 423 to 461

Asset Name Last update % Holdings
Page Industries 31.02% 28.35%
GRUH Finance 17.82% 16.52%
Repco Home Finance 12.94% 12.22%
Ajanta Pharma 10.64% 12.10%
Hawkins Cooker 10.03% 10.05%
Kajaria Ceramics 2.47% 4.16%
Adi Finechem 2.70% 4.15%
Vinati Organics 2.37% 3.74%
Goldman Sachs Gold - ETF 4.43% 3.58%
Divi's Laboratories 2.36% 2.90%
HDFC Bank 3.21% 2.22%
Total (Stocks) 100.00%
Right now the best shots are:
Page Ind

Last 3 picks were timed very well. We’ll be able 2 see if it’s beginners’ fallacy as vishal says as time goes on.

A beautiful info graphic as a picture speaks more than 1000 words

https://www.dropbox.com/s/en62g2tq9132up1/Portfolio%20allocation.png?dl=0

Right now not bullish on any of them as I’ll wait till end of results season to take call and review them.

Asset Name % Holding Of Stocks

Page Industries 31.75%

GRUH Finance 15.97%

Repco Home Finance 11.47%

Ajanta Pharma 11.33%

Hawkins Cooker 9.44%

Kajaria Ceramics 4.15%

Adi Finechem 3.96%

Vinati Organics 3.79%

Goldman Sachs Gold - ETF3.36%

Divi’s Laboratories 2.65%

HDFC Bank 2.13%

Stocks 100.00%

Happy investing