Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals

If you go to NSE India site to retrieve OHLC data, you get 2 kinds of close prices - Last Price & Close Price

Just type in any stock here & see
https://www.nseindia.com/products/content/equities/equities/eq_security.htm

What is exactly the difference between last price & close price. Which of the two should be used for plotting candlestick charts?

The last traded price usually differs from the closing price of the day. This because the closing price of the day on NSE is the weighted average of the last 30 mins of trading. Last traded price of the day is the actual last traded price.

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Thank you. If I want to plot a daily candlestick chart which one should I use?

Closing. Always Closing.

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Thank you. Is there a reason?

I mean for Open, you have only one price (I assume Open Price == First price). So the corresponding Close price would be Last Price.

So why is Closing preferred instead?

Last few trades are cleared and settled for a price. it could be different than what last price you see. Sometimes the closing price is away from the last shown price. thats why closing price is important.

@basumallick - Please add if I am missing something

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2 interesting charts…

there is very strong evidence of accumualtion in lux ind…
i believe phase b is still ongoing, and more action in the tradeing range is likely to continue into next year…

this one is a more short term picture, phase c action seen already… should form backup/lps action in phase d before mark up…

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Hi @Capsule91…Thanks for your interesting posts. I have been following this thread for good knowledge on technicals. Could you share your views on PI industries and TV18. The stock is at all time highs but I am wondering whether the upmove is losing strength. On the other hand TV18 has been beaten down and showing some strength

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On a lighter note wrt to ion exchange price pattern. What goes “around” comes “around” :slight_smile: in my view not only prices have cracked but are due to fill the gap as well

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Can you please share your views on Sun Pharma based on strong closing and Big volume Breakout.

Disc- Invested recently

Shr Digvijay cement has broken out of a cup and handle pattern as shown in daily chart attached. Details on chart.

Fundamentally the company changed hands through buying and selling by various promoters from Birlas to Brazilian company Votorantim. The most recent guys who bought the company brought in Anil Singhvi (Ambuja Cement fame) who is considered as an expert in running and scaling cement businesses and his track record speaks for itself.

Company is located in Saurashtra region of Gujarat and mainly caters to Jamnagar and surrounding regions.

The low hanging fruits of cost controls and other such measures have already started playing out since past 2 quarters with company posting EPS of 1.6 for H1 FY 20 in what is seasonally a weak half for most cement companies. Going ahead, company is likely to save more with more of its own power supply. As per half yearly balance sheet available with results, company is debt free.

disc: bought around 16 and added more post pattern completion. For me its a techno funda bet where both the chart and fundamentals complement each other.

Anyone contemplating investment should do their own diligence or take advice of their financial advisor.

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@pikrohit, hi

absolutely agree with you regarding pi ind…
it is losing momentum at the present price point…

the relative strength index has a lot of divergence, the price is far away fromt he moving averages on the weekly chart , i would expect a correction in this counter to the mentioned Fibonacci levels…
but this is a short term phenomena…

pi ind actually has a lovely chart, it has been under accumulation since 2015, following a trading range, presently in the penultimate phase d of the process, before the actual markup which has not yet begun

since it is a very slow mover, how long it will take to come out of the correction into markup is difficult to say, but personally, i would prefer atleast profit booking at this stage, but please consider the upside potential of this stock is no where near its current price…
i would refrain from specifics on the price target due to house rules

coming to tv18…

here i think one can have a short and a long term analysis
int he short term looking at the daily, the price became oversold across the demand reverse trendline and had a automatic reaction to it in august, since then it seems to be forming a trend channel…
as of now, the stochastic is oversold, has a positive cross over and price at the support of the demand line of the channel, the 20dma is above the 50dma
can be a trading bet, but i wont prefer it atm

but looking less myopically , the scrip got distributed early this year, and then started a markdown to be oversold …

i avoid these kind of scenarios for investing purposes…


the weekly chart still trends below the 52week moving average, there is a hard supply line at 31 and the stochastic has a negative cross… this scrip will find a lot of issue to generate momentum …

in the weekly the positives are 20weekly ma supporting the correction
the rsi has been trading above the 9period ma and taking support from it
and the last 2 bullish candle had good spreads, which the previous upmove did the same amount of work in 5 smaller spread candles, definitely evidence of local absorption/exhaustion of supply , and the net effect of all this has been the jump across the 20weekly ma and taking support form it…

all over a positive action in the short term, with capped upward momentum potential as of now, thats my take
better to track passively

hope this helps!

disclaimer… pi ind is in watchlist

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pharma is the only sector which has rerating potential if there is a upcoming bull market…

it is still weak on relative strength, the institutional money has not completed entering in this segment i believe from the charts…
enough bad news has hit this sector and recently it has shown no effect on the prices, definitely the sector is being supported by smart money

sun pharma being a leader, ofcourse follows the same general principle…

it had got nicely redistributed in 2018, the instituions knew that issues were to come up
and it has entered into another trading range…


i do not see a shakeout action yet in this trading range, i am not sure if this is a sustainable breakout of not…
good things so far, the last correction halted at the mid of the trading range for the first time and gave a bullish move, today’s move was the largest spread candle of the whole year, it failed to close to a new high but close above the resistance of 2 different supply lines
lets see how it goes but i have a hunch , this is not the breakout to sustain, might form an upthrust and go back to trading range… this will be invalidated if there is good follow through of this move and 440-435 range is retested and confirmed as a support…

overall, a positive build with evidence of accumulation, but i am looking forward to more action in the trading range, after a little follow through in the short term

talking about a very short term view, sun has become a regular of mine in future trading, this was an excellent case of accumualtion

the supply signatures were diminishing rapidly…
on 15th when the second half started the move that happened was on 3.2million shares, that was "the moment " in this whole trading range…
what happened after that was a beautifully engineered accumulation by the institutions , leading to today’s markup
[the numbers are in multiples of 1000k shares depicting individual swing volumes ]

hope this helps

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cosmo films

interesting chart…

phase b action, accumulation ongoing , midway…

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Two sort of similar setups, all set to breakout

MOTILALOFS - Appears to be showing some strength, along with the rest of the AMC sector.

Dr Reddys - Looks to have formed an inverted H&S backed by improving fundamentals

Disc: Have positions

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Thanks for the detailed analysis. I agree that PI is a phenomenal business and has a long runway. I have been holding it for few years. Fundamentally, I personally doubt that it would correct ~25% to 1157 levels as the company has been delivering strong result and management seems very confident about the visibility. However, it might come off these highs and provide a good entry points.

TV18 has some positive rumours/news coming in in terms of merger with Sony. Also Zee stake sale clears some doubts and can have a rub off effect on TV18. The move has been decent in last 2 days with high volumes.

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PI has 2 supports…

1293
And 1158,
If u consider the standard pivot point system…

Which coincides with the fibonacci levels, I mentioned…

Let’s see, it might form a base and do time correction, if not correct that deep…
But a decent cooling down will come, it has completed all 5 Elliot impulses as of now…

I bumped into this chart of cosmo films the other day, looks very interesting and was checking the VP thread on it, you had posted previously on that thread do u still track the scrip??

What is the current cycle position, can you please brief on it a bit?

Thanks!

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Thanks for the comments. I had booked some PI qty and would watch out for 1293 level mentioned by you to add it back.

I am watching the packaging companies so will put out some observations from Q2 results of Cosmo’s peers. BOPP cycle improving and spreads are at high levels, but BOPET has started to decline as capacities from Polyplex and Jindal have come onstream. Players believe that this BOPET decline is temporary till the demand again outpaces the new supply.
Cosmo is into BOPP and Polyplex is into BOPET. So things may be good for Cosmo, but keep an eye on the commentary by Cosmo, Uflex, SRF, Polyplex etc. The good thing is that Cosmo has done a great job at distributing its cash flows.

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Not much into technical analysis but I think Mayur Uniquoters may be bottoming out. Please correct me if I am wrong

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If I want to study the technicals of an Index ETF & decide trailing stops etc, is it better to plot the chart of the ETF prices or of the underlying index itself?

For e.g. for the Index ETF NiftyBEES, I tried plotting charts for both the Nifty Index and also of NiftyBEES etc. I get some variations in my charts & also where I would place my stop.

On one hand, the ETF is what I am buying & selling (for long term) but on the other hand, the volume of the ETF is much less than that of the Index itself. So which is better?