If at all this gonna repeat, there’s more pain left 
x-axis: no.of weeks in drawdown(D/D)
Thread:
Nifty Index seems to be at a crucial Trendline support level of 10900 in weekly chart. Hope it stays above this next week.
Yes, it has broken most of the crucial supports, on the daily one can see a rounding top pattern.
IMHO: The index was consolidating/testing patience for 6 months in the range of 10500-11000, so most likely to find support at 10560 levels. Breaking that would test the previous lows of 10k-9.9k.
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On the topic of Nifty breaking trendlines, apparently it has broken 16 years of parabolic advance. I am not sure I understand this concept; can’t you always find a curve respected by previous lows but broken by the most recent downfall? Or is this bear market special?
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Hi,
I do read Peter Brandt’s tweet, also he says that per parabola rules, breaking the parabola will result in 80% correction. Guess, for nifty to do that we may require too many blackswan events.
May be price changes the perception 
Also pls note: The parabola breached when Nifty breached 10k last time.
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Some of the auto and auto ancillaries are looking good:
BKT:
Minda Corp:
Greaves Cotton:
Maruti:
Apollo Tyre:
Disc: Accumulated these last couple weeks. Exited Maruti as it hit the resistance. Will relook later. Don’t have position in Apollo Tyres.
Apart from these, Minda Industries looks good but richly valued. BKT looks good to me compared to other tyre cos.
Bata - 6 Month consolidation around 1400 range and now appears to have broken out.
Page - At long term support. You are essentially paying 2015 prices.
Abbott - Flag breakout 4 months back and a consolidation at previous highs and a fresh breakout.
Syngene - Consolidating in this wedge for few years. Will probably be a few more months. Downside appears limited when bought at the wedge support
Honeywell - Breakout few months back from 22k levels and a re-test and now broken out of the 25k levels.
Nestle - Wedge breakout last month
DMart - Formed a flag few months back. Brokeout post great numbers.
Crompton - Really liking this as a business going through a transformation. Tight consolidation on the monthly charts for several months
Havells - Been on the radar for a long time. 20 Month moving avg has acted as support for years here and maybe it will, this time too.
Have longish positions in all due to fundamentals as well as technicals. All are monthly charts since am away from the markets due to lack of time with other things. Beauty of TA is that it allows me to change timeframe and apply same/similar principles
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Advanced Enzyme Tech. -
- FPIs are constantly increasing their holdings-
- Technically the fall should stop here (hidden bullish chart along with positive technical parameters)-
- Fundamentals are intact with a long term growth story-
have long position with positive bias views.
Phillips Carbon Black-
- The chart has found support on 109 levels after dropping from 320 levels-
- The fall was mainly behalf of increasing rubber prices which are cooling off and resuming downtrend-
Disc: Invested and views may be biased.
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This is my 1st TA related post and I quite naive,so, please take this more from academic perspective. Some of stocks with relatively better financial quality compared to peers or overall and trading near 800 day EMA (basically trying to do 200 W EMA). Looks like, this acts as strong long term support as some of stocks exactly got support at this line (the blue line). More of experimentation and will track some of these:
Orient Refractories
Brittania
Radico Khaitan
KNR construction
Amrutanjan
Inox Leisure
Biocon
Apl apollo
AIA Engineering
Sudarshan Chemical
OCCL
Zensar
Hatsun
Gruh
Disc: I may have technical or fundamental or techno funda position in some of them. Please do your own due diligence.
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@phreakv6 I have been following Crompton and think the story is playing out well. On technical, the set up looks very interesting as you have highlighted . Adding to your point, with a possible of traingular break out. Look at below charts
Below is weekly chart where at 200 W EMA, stock got excellent support around 195-200 rupee twice and then moved up
Below is 1 yar daily chart where stock has been in tight range with 20, 50 and 200 day EMA , all around 225-230 (this was around 220-225 rupee few days back) and slowly stock closing price is moving above these levels. If stock sustains these levels and move ahead following by a good quarterly result, this could be interesting
Disc: Invested here. This is not a recommendation. Please do your own due diligence
Turns out all the stocks in the previous set of charts are going to be big beneficiaries with the corporate tax cut with DMart,Page, Nestle, Crompton, Havells and Bata set to gain the most. High returns on capital with lot of scope for reinvestment into the future and more cash in hand to reinvest, along with great visibility in profit growth in the near term - everything going for them. With these tax cuts, these big businesses are bound to get bigger.
Here’s one more to add to the list. HUL flag breakout on the monthly. HUL has probably the best return ratios a business can have and I suspect a lot of the excess cash will be used to expand into new segments and increase market share through higher ad spends in current products.
Mangalam Organics - Looks to have reversed the downtrend with a breakout with volumes (mostly Promoter buying) and closed above 100 week EMA and also 20 week EMA, as well as medium-term resistance with a MACD crossover too. Looks to have paid 30 Cr in taxes last FY which works out to about 30% tax rate. The money saved could be used as ad spends for the retail products. A close above 400 will be a big positive as it could face some resistance there.
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Glancing at 5 year charts, yesterdays bonanza appears to be just an up-leg. An ordinary event in the big picture. The chart does not appear to have bottomed-out or started an uptrend, which is a possibility about which it is too early to comment.
Auto Sector, which is likely to come-up with worse quarterly results has jumped the most.
Chart of Ashokley Land
Chart of Page Inds
Food For Thought:
Are “they” setting up the market to attract buyers to whom they can sell their stock before the quarterly results are out?
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Not everything works on a conspiracy theory. Even if they are dumping no one is forced to buy or sell. There are enough ways to understand trend reversals and trend continuation.
Also the importance of such big decisions and their Lollapalooza effects can be predicted but not with pin point accuracy.
Nifty has closed at 11274 and futures at 11300+. And it’s a clear range breakout with a mega bullish bar. Most of the money is lost questioning what the market is trying to convey or making assumptions before time.
There is little precedence for such policy actions in India but it for sure has the capability to change the sentiment. Positive sentiment itself acts a propellant for increased business and economic activity. Rest one is free to adopt the strategy which works best for him/her. But being strongly opioniated seldom helps in trading the market.
Regards
Divyansh
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