Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals

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I’ve been tracking BlueJet, Neuland and esperion since March 2024 and invested in Esperion since May 2024. Here are some key observations:

  1. Transparency Issues: Esperion’s management lacks transparency, with repeated dilution of shares.
  2. Inefficient Sales Team: The sales team is not very efficient, and their advertisements do not effectively reach patients or doctors.
  3. Payer Convergence: Although payer convergence has increased over the past year, many doctors still prescribe Esperion’s products for statin intolerance.
  4. Funding from OMERS: Esperion received $300 million from OMERS Life Sciences, and all royalties from Daiichi will go to OMERS until they receive 1.7 times the $300 million. Currently, only U.S. revenue is considered in their income1.
  5. Supply Chain Shift: Daiichi will shift its manufacturing supply chain to its European partner as per the agreement. https://www.daiichisankyo.com/files/news/pressrelease/pdf/202401/20240103_E.pdf
  6. Uncertainty with Neuland: It is unclear whether Neuland will continue to supply Daiichi.
  7. BlueJet’s Role: I think BlueJet will supply products to Esperion for the U.S. market only.
  8. Esperion’s U.S. Revenue: According to the JPMorgan research report, Esperion’s U.S. revenue is as follows (in $):
  • FY23: 78 million
  • FY24: 110 million
  • FY25: 203 million
  • FY26: 431 million
  • FY27: 554 million
  • FY30: 620 million
  • FY32: 137 million

Once Daiichi has its own manufacturing supply chain, BlueJet’s revenue from intermediate will depend on Esperion’s performance in the U.S.

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