@ashish_agarwal Please find the ceinsys AGM transcript here. It is one of the AGMs where there are lot of detailed responses from management. You can simply google like this in the future to find transcripts. The very first link in the results is the link I’ve shared.
Update based on results so far
Garware, Daily - Strongest result and broke out with volumes post numbers.
Based on the concall, some of our guesswork came up right. PPF volumes ramping up very well. IPD still a drag but yet company has posted all-time-high revenue and profits. Margins have clear levers for growth above 20% when 1. IPD margins improve in the next 6-12 months 2. Market spends taper off 3. SCF volumes come back in summer.
Management thinks 600 Cr per quarter and so 2400 Cr topline is doable with current production lines which means, operating leverage accruing from fixed costs of production will also contribute to improving margins. No plans for merging GIL or selling Mumbai land but plans seem to be on for selling Aurangabad or Nashik land (don’t remember). A better capital utilisation plan will act as a trigger for re-rating alongside further improvement and sustenance in numbers
Sharda Motors, Monthly - Three months of sideways movement post breakout.
Results here too have been good. There’s clear volume growth in BS-VI, if we excuse the lack of topline growth due to company reducing catalyst trading and looking at gross profits. Essentially at an absolute level, profits are growing and understandably margins as well, with the trading component removed. Market has been chasing skirt with PSUs and ignoring value stocks like this but hopefully things will turn. One thing to note though is that TREM-V might be delayed to Apr '26. I see it more as an optionality at this point and valuation doesn’t reflect even BS-VI growth at this point. Payouts have got to go up as well and are probably the reason market isn’t getting excited. Hopefully dividends for FY24 would be better.
Taal, Monthly - Support from previous monthly tops from '22 and '23. 2400-2500 levels should be strong support here.
Has been the worst result of the lot as margins have continued to be hit despite topline growing. The breakneck hiring done in FY24 (520 to 620 employees) is causing a big drag on margins (employee cost gone up from 22 Cr to 28 Cr per qtr). My thesis was that margins will revert back to 30-33% levels sooner or later. As per the management, they don’t hire when they don’t have projects, so hopefully these people will become billable soon.
It continues to remain cheap, so I intend to hold for another quarter or two since there aren’t many value buys available at this point. On the NCLT side things seem to be progressing well as per latest order from Feb 8.
Disc: Invested in all 3. No recent transactions in any of them. I am not a registered advisor and I write for clarity. Please do your own research