BULL in BEAR Market

@kb_snn , its long since your last post but may be time you may like to share your views since market is down significantly from all time high but not much from Dec-2023 rather is close to that. Eager to hear views

2 Likes

This is first phase of correction …
People who entered post Jan 2024 will mostly exit post this correction
Post first phase you will see which sectors will shine in next phase and which to avoid … That is most information to derive post March 2025…

On Macro … Lot of uncertainty exist because of US policies …
Will DOGE cause deflation
Will Tariff cause inflation
Will ending of wars impact commodities
Will US - China competition change supply chain if how and in which sectors … etc

Most of these answers may not be clear … but may impact your stock selections

You can add slowly in sectors which you wanted to do … but do aggressive allocation post April 2025 , but keep cash levels > 10% till Next year (March 2026) … as there might be multiple level of volatility giving you multiple opportunities

14 Likes

Post first phase of correction some investors would like to Invest some cash

How to invest across sectors .??

It is sometimes tough to understand each and every business , but even after understanding and knowing potential of business … how to value business is tough task

Interesting Mathematical formulae have been used for various sectors to simplify task of business valuation ( is it too expensive or cheap )

Compare companies within a specific sector and across time duration ( last 5 / 10 years ) … You will get a fair idea if businesss is expensive or at fair value …

Hope this is useful

13 Likes

Very informative post. This will give a great insight in assessment of valuation of different sectors. :tada:
In addition I think PEG ratio will be quite useful in case of IT and other growth industries.
It provides a sense of fair valuation.

Calculate the PEG Ratio: Divide the P/E ratio by the expected EPS growth rate.

For instance, if an IT company has a P/E ratio of 30 and an expected EPS growth rate of 20%, its PEG ratio would be
30/20 =1.5.

This suggests the company might be slightly overvalued compared to its growth prospects, depending on industry benchmarks.

2 Likes

This data will help in understanding the sectoral flow of money.
Will be helpful in guessing next bullish sector.

1 Like

We can get the 15 days of FII investments data from this website:NSDL : Fortnightly Sector-wise FPI Investment data

We can observe that good investment inflow is observed in chemical,healthare and media.
Most outflow was observed in automobile sector.

9 Likes

This market is pretty Interesting .. You can be bull in this market as there are many stocks at 10 / 5 year low with low expectations and many stocks that are crazily valued .

Equity as currency is beautiful option .. You can sell crazily valued stocks and buy cheap stocks at same time .. It happens rarely as most time markets are overvalued or undervalued or near fair value requiring one to use Debt or arbitrage funds as buffer ..

Lets take one interesting sector .. IT services .. It is getting hit on 2 grounds

Insourcing cycle is at peak and Fear of tech disruption ..

Insourcing vs Outsourcing cycle is typically 10 / 15 years cycle , What drives it

So when it reverses lets look at my tweet this morning

Will cycle reverse this year I don;t know , but the expectation are low and that is priced in .. Any reversal can be decent shift

At the same time lets look at capex plays like pipe or cable manufactures ..

APAR and Welspun Corp stocks did nothing for 10 years till 2021 .. but that low expectation was in price I could buy APAR at Rs 350 - Rs 400 at decent PE and dividend yield and Weslpun Corp for Rs 40 odd . I did not know if things will turn , or when the expectation was so low that even if cycle did not turn it was ok .. Can IT services or some Chemical or FMCG stocks, Movie exhibition stocks do same now .. I don’t know .. Just like I put bets on 20 odd such stocks in 2020 and 2021 , I have put 20 odd such bets in this cycle .. by slowly trimming crazy valued stocks in capital markets , pipes & cables, copper converters etc and yes international equity ETF

12 Likes