No bro. I have been looking at demographics (among other parameters) before I heard abt people like Harry Dent etc.
I had done some back of the envelope calculation for a Mature stabilised running size of housing finance market (had posted earlier as well). so for anyone who is interested -
Average Age (life expectancy) of house or apartment = 80 yrs.
India’s peak population=150cr.
Average household size when Indian economy matures = 3 members per household (right now it is 4.8 for India , 3.1 for China iirc and 2.x for US, Germany, Japan etc)
Meaning India needs 150/3=50cr new houses every 80 yrs. Or 50/80crore new houses per year.
Occupancy rate = 100% (meaning all houses are occupied, either owned or taken on rent)
For each and every house, let us say 15 lac loan is taken. Some people need no loan, some 5 lacs , some 20 lacs, some 30 lacs…
I have taken 15 lacs as an average for every new house bought. Your assumption here may be different from mine.
Let us say the loan is taken for 15 yrs period on average.
So when India becomes a optimal economy (where say everyone is eligible for a 15 lac loan), then at all times, the total running asset size (loan book size or the total outstanding loans ) of the home loans would be=
50/80(15+14+13+12…+2+1) lac crores = 75 lac crore = 75 trillion rupees
Pls note that it is the running outstanding loan book size. so someone who took loan for 15lacs 1 year back , assume 14 lacs is outstanding loan now. someone who took loan for 15lacs 2 year back , assume 13 lacs is outstanding loan now. (hence 15+14+13…+1 in above calculations)
According to NHB (national housing board) data, it was 10 trillion rupees 2 yrs back growing at 20-25% cagr. So, at this point, it should be 15 trillion rupees.
That gives a 5 fold increase possibility till the time India becomes a more prosperous economy.
15 trillion rupees is 11.5% of 2 trillion dollar economy (taking exchange rate of 65 rupees per USD).
Let us say, the GDP size is 5 trillion USD when the housing finance market does become 75 trillion rupees. Taking same exchange rate of 65 rupees: 75/(5*65)=23%
Compare with other countries: China’s home loan market is 20% of its GDP at this point BTW. And USA’s mortgage debt is 45% of its GDP.