Thanks all for contributing generously to this thread, especially to contributors after Oct 24.
Since middle of last year, I had been seeing BSE share price performing exceptionally well, despite being overpriced in my limited understanding, and I had formed my foolish view that its running with the bull market
Things have pretty much crystallized now, with few facts below:
- Market Leader (NSE) makes most of its profits from trading in equity option (primarily index options), roughly Rs 10,000 Cr per year (see chart below).
- NSE had roughly 99% market share in equity options till Dec 23 (timeline may be off few months here and there), since when things started changing.
- BSE that was sleeping since many many years suddenly woke up, and now commands 15 to 20% market share in equity options. This may be due to dumb luck, management execution or favorable regulation, but the fact of the matter is that it is giving serious competition to NSE today.
- From 150 Cr profitability in FY23, today it stands to deliver 1500 Cr profitability in FY25 (including contribution of one off 200 Cr in SGF), a jump of 10X. No doubt why that market has rewarded BSE investors accordingly.
- Will this trend continue or how will it pan out in future, is yet to be seen. But at current price, I see risk reward against the the buyer (my view, you may differ)
NSE investors slide for reference