CASH MARKET
This is an attempt to potential changes in the CASH market of BSE, if NSDL and NSE get listed in the next 1 year. I could be very wrong with listing timeframes, actual trade volumes panning out, etc.
BSE traded value is ~2500Cr/day, it is one of the highest traded scrips. I will assume NSE being a bigger (9x) bourse, it will command similar trading volumes atleast in the initial 6-12 month period.
| Description | Value | % |
|---|---|---|
| CSDL 3M Trading Value (Cr) | 39,003 | |
| BSE 3M Trading Value (Cr) | 1,46,897 | |
| CDSL 3M Daily Avg Trading Value (Cr) | 661 | 21.0% |
| BSE 3M Daily Avg Trading Value (Cr) | 2,490 | 79.0% |
| BSE+CDSL Daily Avg Trading Value (Cr) | 3,151 | |
| BSE 12M Cash Market Daily Avg Trading Value (Cr) | 7,611 | |
| Assume NSDL & NSE combined are similar volume + BSE Avg volume | 10,762 | 41.4% |
| Assume NSDL & NSE combined are 2x volume + BSE Avg volume | 17,063 | 124.2% |
Plus the Futures + Options for these two scrips will be ONLY on BSE, which should further boost FNO volumes. BSE does 1000-2000Cr Futures Premium Value trade per day + a few hundred crores of Options Premium Turnover. Add some small amounts of CDSL.
I do not have adequate data points to make revenue projections, but this gives an idea why some (or maybe many) market participants are giving a re-rating boost to BSE, based on its competitor getting listed.
With all this, Once BSE equity & derivatives segments need to be activated for most active clients (maybe 70-80%), and with the introduction of the Common Contract Note, there is a high possibility that BSE will garner higher volumes. There are changes coming that gives a host of opportunities to BSE, will they grab it?
Read my LinkedIn note on Common Contract Note - Common Contract Note: A Game-Changer for Indian Securities Markets
Caution - This will take 2-3 years to fully pan out. Dont expect BSE to just linearly go to 2L-3L MCAP. It took BSE 2 years from early 2023 change of options strategy, and removal of trade incentive mindset, to reach here from 6K MCAP to 1.1L MCAP.
Disclaimer - I have a old position on this, not traded in last 6 months, but feel like exiting when seeing such a run up. The data points on traded PTO, etc keeps me invested.