On a standalone basis there is QoQ improvement however primarily due to consolidated loss of 25cr the Q is showing a loss…
Do you feel that we can reverse the 25cr loss in the Europe entity and use that to extrapolate a appx 40-50CR EBIDTA going forwards?
Fresh competition emerges for the company in solar glass
Currently, India can manufacture about 1,000 tonnes per day of solar glass, which is adequate for module production of 5-6 GW. The country’s overall module production capacity, however, is 38 GW.
Hence, there is a massive demand-supply gap, with domestic production meeting only 15% of the solar glass requirement and the remaining imported from China. For adding 35-38 GW of solar module capacity in the next three years or so, our solar glass capacity has to expand by 7-8 times to meet the demand.
With discontinuation of import duty on solar tempered glass last fiscal, the momentum on domestic capacity addition will remain slow. The government’s initiative to restrict imports or improvement in efficiency of domestic players to compete with imports will be crucial to kickstart the capacity addition for solar glass in India and will be a key monitorable.
Above tweet quotes Vivek Ramaswamy’s opinion on global warming. It doesn’t immediately affect Borosil Renewables or any related company here in India, as our country’s leadership is firm in it’s commitment and achieving it’s renewable goals. However, if the evidence against global warming trends up and changes the opinion of decision makers in due course, it may well be an emerging anti-thesis for a lot of renewable companies in the long run?
Disc: Not invested, not tracking. Exited a small position long time back.
no, counterveiling duty has been removed by govt.
Borosil Renewables Launches Innovative Solar Glass Options
When is margin supression going to go off for solar glass companies ? any idea on any development in chinese anti dumping duty?
I went through the latest conceal for Borosil renewable that took place on Nov 6 2023. The overall commentary was unfortunately negative.
So till Mar 2024, things will continue to remain same and there will be no respite from the price erosions happening due to the dumping of solar glasses from China, Vietnam and Malaysia.
In fact, when asked if the worst is behind (since the margins are almost at all time low 7% and 8% in the last 2 quarters), the management was still not very optimistic as the prices fluctuate a lot and their selling prices are totally dependent on Chinese prices which are announced every Wednesday.
I just want to understand that what do you think that the margins have they bottomed out? Or do you think that the worst is still not over for Borosil?
It’s a good question. We are trying to find the answers because the prices every week are changing. And that’s the fact on the ground because the Chinese prices for each and every component of solar are getting announced on every Wednesday, and they keep changing. So we are doing our best in terms of performance, operational performance, some improvements are still to be achieved that we are trying at the factory level. But in terms of prices, which are a major factor, which will decide about the percentage margin or whether it is bottomed out or not, that is still uncertain.
- Borosil together with 3 other solar glass manufacturers (names not mentioned in the call) have been trying to negotiate with the govt to start the basic custom duty on imports of these products to have a level playing field.
We filed our application exactly 2 weeks ago. So it’s premature at this stage. But I want to tell you that there are 4 companies in India, which are now manufacturing solar glass. So whatever decision comes in our case will be applicable to all.
They are also facing similar issues in Germany where they have their subsidiary. Quoting from the concall about this:
The position in other important markets is as under. The demand in European Union has suffered a massive blow from September as the customers deferred canceled their orders due to inability to compete with deeply discounted prices of modules imported from China, Southeast Asia.
The customers have severely cut down production and are running only shallow operations in the hope to come back to a full production later. These customers have represented to the German government as well as to the European Commission and some positive announcements have been made already. It is expected that concrete steps to revive the solar manufacturing sector in the European Union and Germany will be taken by the end of November or sometime in December. Interfloat has been a part of these approaches to the government, and we expect that the measures will include some positive steps for local production of solar glass.
So to conclude uncertainity remains at least till March 2024. If there is any import duty post this period, then there are chances of some revival. But until then will be watching from the sidelines.
There are big volumes buying today is there any news regarding duties?
I could not find any news related to the anti dumping duty till now. But interesting volumes as you pointed out @samm2211 As they say in the technical world news follows the price. We will find out in a few days.
Again some big price volume actions. Tracking the development very closely now for the anti-dumping duty news.
I do not think current price action is due to hope of anti dumping duty but increase in container rates by @30% (as confirmed by my exporter friend) due to red sea issues as well as container scarcity as ships are taking longer detour (cape of good hope route) thereby putting container supply chains in tizzy. This will allow company to raise prices thereby improving profitability for this quarter at the minimum. Looking at US/UK action against Houthis and their defiance (as of now), it seems this issue will linger on for few more months.
Just wondering would the issues in Red Sea have knock on effect to container prices from China to India? Is there any way to track the PV glass prices in real time?
It has now blasted with Modiji’s push for solar in the houses.
It seems BCD on solar modules isn’t being effective to that extent.
Excellent learnings from BR concall: https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/2bd78784-0fb5-4f53-8a44-b10f69f0881f.pdf
Every answer is a gem if one wants to learn about the industry.
- Sustenance and growth of solar glass manufacturing in India will depend largely upon the levy of duties on imports of solar glass.
- In the USA, there is no solar glass production as of now. In Europe, we are the only ones who
are producing. And in India, now we have 5 players and the 6th one will be coming. So, besides
the Chinese domain, these are the only players who are producing solar glass. The Chinese are
controlling almost 97% of the world’s solar glass production between say China, Vietnam, and
Malaysia. They have some plants in Vietnam and Malaysia and that’s all-Chinese plants. So,
most glass production is controlled by the Chinese.
- When our customers import glass into India, there is no duty whereas if we export glass to China, there is a 21% duty. So, the Chinese have increased their production capabilities and capacities by imposing restrictions, whereas in case of India, we are staying away from it. Now, unless we create a certain situation in which the glass industry can become economically prosperous and create the capacity, which is world-class in that sense, their costs will not get optimized. It is a chicken and egg situation that you don’t impose duties and ask the industry to come up. That’s not going to happen because unless there is a sufficient return on equity or return on investment, nobody will put the money.
- Government has to take a stand that to create
a local capacity in solar glass which is a very important part of the solar value chain, there may
be some pain in the cost, and the pain is not very high because the solar glass in solar module is
a very small percentage and the cost of increase in power price by levying certain duty on solar
glass is hardly 1 or 2 paisa in a power cost of Rs. 2.50 or Rs. 2.60, which the bidders are bidding.
- We already have 5 players in action today. And the 6th one is on the cards. In another 4 or 5
months, he will come into production. As against the 1,000 tonnes per day that Borosil is doing,
we have about 1,300 tonnes already extra and another 300 tonnes coming up. So, altogether,
India will have a capacity of 2,600 tonnes which will be nearly balancing the quantum of
modules that are expected to be made in India. Now there is no capacity constraint, and we have
a large enough industry with 5 to 6 players. Reliance will be on top of that. If Reliance comes
up, there is another 2,000 tonnes per day we believe that they are going to do. That will mean a
lot of glass in the country. And the Government, I think, would not really want to shut their eyes
to this situation.
- 5,000 tonnes per day should be the demand alone for the solar PV sector.
BR requests anti dumping investigation on solar glass: https://www.dgtr.gov.in/sites/default/files/Initiation%20Notification_English%20-%20TTG%20-%20ADD_0002.pdf
There are 4 companies beyond BR who are adding capacity for solar glass now as per the notification: