As of today, the P/E, P/B and Div. Yield of Nifty are 21.41, 3.18 and 1.44 respectively.
Above average, but surely not extreme valuations. However, if we are in a bull phase then a bear phase would surely follow, if history rhymes. Let’s use this thread to record the tell-tale signs of a bull market gaining momentum. May be we can look back after 7-10 years and come out wiser. Surely everyone would want to learn how to keep dancing as long as possible before the music stops? Would request you to share over here the tips your panwaala gives you (when he does) , without adding your own tips, e.g. (edited)
When every idle conversation leads to some discussion of the state of stock markets.
Your close friend whom you were preaching to buy a blue chip stock, preaches you about the latest multibagger.
Predictions of Nifty/Sensex 2x in 2 years, 5x in 5 years come out from known brokerages (2,00,000 by 2020? who knows?)
Leading daily newspapers (not the business news) start featuring financial news on the front page.
I’ll start with the following e-mail from ShareKhan I received today:
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Hmm, may be I didn’t put my thoughts clearly. We already have threads where the basic premise is to take some decision based on the current state of the market, like Nifty PE crosses 24|A statistically informed entry-exit model! My idea behind starting this thread was to record cliched events (like in a journal with mutliple authors) which are reminiscent of middle/late stage bull markets without making any predictions/recommendations (observe rather than act, much like meditation) based on any such event, e.g.
When every idle conversation leads to some discussion of the state of stock markets.
Your close friend whom you were preaching to buy a blue chip stock, preaches you about the latest multibagger.
Predictions of Nifty/Sensex 2x in 2 years, 5x in 5 years come out from known brokerages (2,00,000 by 2020? who knows?)
Leading daily newspapers (not the business news) start featuring financial news on the front page.
Moderator, please remove this thread or change the description in the first post if it seems like a duplicate.
Markets all over the world are up after the release of Federal Reserve Minutes which almost ensured the December interest rate hike.
It appears as if markets have already factored in the December Fed rate hike. Also, the Fed assurance that the rate hike would be gradual over the years is a relief for the markets.
So, I understand that market won’t be under serious trouble unless China comes out with an adverse economic step ;).
Since I am reviving this thread after 2+ years, let me reiterate that there are other threads for quantitative/ statistical approaches to predicting the bull market top. This thread is for discussing potential frenzy indicators which are not quantitive.
Coming to early indicators(?) of a bull market frenzy, a few persons close to me have been asking me which stocks to buy and suggesting to me how the market can only head higher. Also observed more colleagues discussing stock investing in the last 5-6 weeks. Have others made similar observations, or is it just my biased self paying more attention to such occurrences?
The US Fed has publicly committed itself to reducing its Balance Sheet – likely by 2 to 2.5 trillion USD. In any case the “easy money” scenario of the last decade (late 2008 onwards) is unlikely to continue. The Fed has also indicated more rate hikes in the months ahead.
As of today, the Nifty 50 PE is 26 plus, and (the braoder) Nifty 500 PE is 31 plus – these are near historic highs.
The rising crude oil prices and the widening fiscal deficit don’t bode well, either.
, without adding your own tips, e.g. (edited)