Best Value Pickr Contest

with lot of serious discussion going on around portfolio allocation framework and identifying grade C businesses, lets have some fun and apply the learnings from those threads. we are in festive mood (christmus and new year) and engage in some fun

each is given 1 lakh rupees (imaginary). you need to allocate this to your portfolio, the contestant with highest pf value by Dec 31 2014 is the winner. the entries close on Dec 31 2013

some simple rules :

min stocks = 5

max stocks = 10

min allocation for a single stock = 10%

max allocation for a single stock = 30%

mine is

hawkins 15, shilpa 20, polymed 15, symphony 15, repco 15, pi ind 10, balram pur chini 10

the idea is not who wins the contest, but how important is capital allocation even though we identify the right stocks (which we have plenty here).

admin can delete this thread if violating the spirit of the form

starting prices are as on Jan 01 2013 and ending prices Dec 31 2013. results will be announces on jan first week 2014, this thread will be closed after jan first 2013

Good one Bala…

Lupin- 30, Poly medicure - 30, Cera- 15, Eclerx- 15, Shilpa - 10

Granules India 30, Dhanuka Agritech 30, JB Chemicals 20, Kaveri 10, Avanti 10

I would like to to add mine

Shakthi Pumps = 15 Jayshree Tea = 15 JB Chemicals= 20 Cadila Health= 15 Shilpa =20 Polymed =15

Since this is a winner takes all contest - the idea is to take a lot of risk (unlike allocating my own money), so I would go with: Shilpa = 30%; Accelya = 20%; Ajanta = 20%; Poly Medicure = 15%; Alembic = 15%

Surprised to see such high allocations to Shilpa. The trade may go right, may go wrong, but really surprised with such high allocations across all 4 boarders who have posted (may not be a representative sample of the entire valuepickr community though).

Wondering how people are developing so much conviction - there is not much information on the Shilpa thread of late - if anybody could enlighten any information on the Shilpa thread to justify such high allocations, that’d be great and would be helpful to the larger community.

Of course, if it’s a punt/fictional exercise, then that’s fine.

What this exercise made me do is think from market perspective, how will the market price this stories if they give disproportionate growth and their probability of having disproportionate growth. And I decided to go with: (from 1 year perspective)

Acrysil - 30 %,

Kaveri seeds - 25 %,

Polymed - 20 %,

Ajanta Pharma - 15 %,

Alembic pharma -10 %

@Bala - You might need to edit the timelines to cover the timebox to span 2014 - not 2013

"starting prices are as on Jan 01 2013 and ending prices Dec 31 2013. results will be announces on jan first week 2014, "

Kiran Shilpa’s foray into formulations and lack of other exciting opportunity did me in…



Here goes:

**Vaibhav Global: 25%. Paushak Ltd.: 25%. Tech Mahindra: 25%. Aurobindo Pharma: 15%. Finolex Cables: 10%.

yes, that should be read as

"starting prices are as on Jan 01 2014 and ending prices Dec 31 2014. results will be announced on jan first week 2015, "

Here goes mine: Britannia : 30%.Kaveri: 30%.Centum Electronics: 10%.Pidilite: 10%.Symphony: 10%.Premco Global: 10%.

My pick

Cadila Healthcare: 30%

Astral : 20%

VST Tiller: 20%

Atul Auto: 20%

Jyoti Structure: 10%

My entries as below

1] Unichem labs - 10%

2] Techno electric - 10%

3] Tata Global Beverages -10%

4] Page Industries - 10%

5] Mayur uniquoters - 10%

6] IL&FS transportation - 10%

7] Dhanuka Agritech - 10%

8] Ajanta Pharma - 10%

9] Gruh Finance - 10%

10] Adani Ent = 10%

@Bala, how are you planning to keep track of various entries and post the results? will you provide monthly scorecards?

That’s a good question Amey.Probably we should put up the CMPs of our ‘picks’,alongwith the allocations(e.g.: 20% of so & so bought @ such & such price) It will help in easy monitoring/evaluation.

What will the winner get? A lunch with Donald, Hitesh & Ayush?

hi amey,

the idea is not who wins, but to demonstrate how capital allocation is important. also pl treat this as real cash and allocate accordingly instead of taking high risk and treating this as ‘winner-takes-all’ . i will provide half yearly results and final results. i am planning on using excel to track this contest.

Lets use something like the attached sheet to track this. I can update it and upload the scorecard on monthly basis. I think 31st Dec closing should be good to use. Its simplistic as of now, but i will introduce more changes. Suggestions welcome for improvements.

How about providing more flexibility in changing the portfolio midway in the year. We can either providefixed number ofchances to each valuepickr Or can allow portfolio changes in the end of April and end of August.

Scorecard.xls (54 KB)

@Bala, how are you planning to keep track of various entries and post the results? will you provide monthly scorecards?

**But to demonstrate the allocation thing,**we DO need to know the winner!

My picks

Hawkins, Shilpa, PI Ind, V Mart, Mayur - 20% in each.