with lot of serious discussion going on around portfolio allocation framework and identifying grade C businesses, lets have some fun and apply the learnings from those threads. we are in festive mood (christmus and new year) and engage in some fun
each is given 1 lakh rupees (imaginary). you need to allocate this to your portfolio, the contestant with highest pf value by Dec 31 2014 is the winner. the entries close on Dec 31 2013
some simple rules :
min stocks = 5
max stocks = 10
min allocation for a single stock = 10%
max allocation for a single stock = 30%
hawkins 15, shilpa 20, polymed 15, symphony 15, repco 15, pi ind 10, balram pur chini 10
the idea is not who wins the contest, but how important is capital allocation even though we identify the right stocks (which we have plenty here).
admin can delete this thread if violating the spirit of the form
starting prices are as on Jan 01 2013 and ending prices Dec 31 2013. results will be announces on jan first week 2014, this thread will be closed after jan first 2013
Since this is a winner takes all contest - the idea is to take a lot of risk (unlike allocating my own money), so I would go with: Shilpa = 30%; Accelya = 20%; Ajanta = 20%; Poly Medicure = 15%; Alembic = 15%
Surprised to see such high allocations to Shilpa. The trade may go right, may go wrong, but really surprised with such high allocations across all 4 boarders who have posted (may not be a representative sample of the entire valuepickr community though).
Wondering how people are developing so much conviction - there is not much information on the Shilpa thread of late - if anybody could enlighten any information on the Shilpa thread to justify such high allocations, that’d be great and would be helpful to the larger community.
Of course, if it’s a punt/fictional exercise, then that’s fine.
What this exercise made me do is think from market perspective, how will the market price this stories if they give disproportionate growth and their probability of having disproportionate growth. And I decided to go with: (from 1 year perspective)
the idea is not who wins, but to demonstrate how capital allocation is important. also pl treat this as real cash and allocate accordingly instead of taking high risk and treating this as ‘winner-takes-all’ . i will provide half yearly results and final results. i am planning on using excel to track this contest.
Lets use something like the attached sheet to track this. I can update it and upload the scorecard on monthly basis. I think 31st Dec closing should be good to use. Its simplistic as of now, but i will introduce more changes. Suggestions welcome for improvements.
How about providing more flexibility in changing the portfolio midway in the year. We can either providefixed number ofchances to each valuepickr Or can allow portfolio changes in the end of April and end of August.