Old transaction. Price was decided when warrants were issued. Now they are getting converted to equity shares.
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Now we know why stock price was getting beaten down
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Sometimes before, article was published claiming issues on turnover to net gross block ratio, like how at 190cr NGB they do 1050cr business with 28% OPMs, i mean that’s really fantastic, if everything was real then😂
Income tax people just came to check this same thing…i guess
Disc. No position
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Why hasn’t the company released a press release/conference regarding the IT raids?
No new disclosure filings till now.
Balu Forge.pdf (6.8 MB)
Now they have.
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Balu Forge just got inducted into NATO’s supply chain, a significant development for the company. Press release attached
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High-margin business: Defence exports command premium pricing vs. industrial components
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Long-term visibility: Multi-year contracts with NATO members de-risk revenue
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Integrated advantage: In-house forging, machining, heat treatment sets them apart
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Strategic timing: EU FTA + NATO deal positions them perfectly for global defence demand
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Earnings inflection: Diversified revenue streams with substantial growth potential
Press release:
1383e610-62fa-4190-9d33-9d0c0fdee60e.pdf (960.8 KB)
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Adding some follow up details and verifications regarding the NATO supply chain induction below.
There are at least 8000 companies listed on the following page, that are under the same classification “E” as Balu Forge. So, this isn’t a unique certification (there are the usual suspects like BEL, Bharat Forge etc in the list, along with smaller companies like Munish Forge). However, the listing may validate that Balu Forge should be capable of doing things it claims to be doing.
India’s Directorate of Standardisation (DoS), Ministry of Defence / Department of Defence Production, acts as the National Codification Bureau (NCB, India) and is the sole agency authorised to allot NCAGEs to Indian entities (on behalf of NATO).
The core document governing the registration and capacity verification of defense manufacturers in India is the Joint Services Guide (JSG) 015.
Source: JSG 015:2021 (Fifth Revision) - Registration of Manufacturer(s) for Defence Stores
Section 0.2 and 2.1 of this guide state that items must be procured only from manufacturers who have demonstrated their capability. It requires a thorough scrutiny of “manufacturing and quality control facilities” and “financial status” before registration as an approved source.
“visit of the Registration team to verify the available Quality Management System, product specific infrastructure and financial standing of the manufacturer intending to get registered as defence manufacturer”
NCAGE code verified at https://eportal.nspa.nato.int/Codification/CageTool/cage-view/7888Y
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FWIW, I asked the compliance team at Balu about concalls, and they are saying they will do one along with the results for Q4-FY2026
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It’s literally crazy….
Company with 1100 cr topline making MOU to supply 110 cr/month worth of empty shell to NATO alliance. For 5 years.
How to evaluate this announcement, ??
Defence segment contribution will be 50% , offcourse there is huge potential and margins also….
Disc. Invested
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Huge shortage of these shells. Sunita Tools got a smaller order yesterday. Many more orders will come for other players too.
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Order size is above their annual capacity. Need to look out for execution.
If u look at CWIP and current net worth its 351 and 436cr respectively.
And similar pattern in Sunita tools also where CWIP AND NET WORTH are 9.6 and 9.34cr .
which shows how industry expansion or shortage of capacity.
And balu has planned it’s Belagavi facilities 2 yrs ago. Now when it’s operational there is war like situation. And they are griping benefits.
So according to me story will be interesting, but at the same time price was not supporting the rosy situation… it felt from 650 to 480
Disc. Invested
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The price fall was due to an Income Tax raid
If you do the math of their recent 5 year Artillery shell MOU from NATO affiliated company then their topline and EBITDA can double in FY27 ( Risk- It is currently MOU only and PO(Purchase order) haven’t received yet, if they fail to execute on time). Why NATO buying from India - Demand-supply mismatch.
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Talk on balu forge
- if the holding period has changed that doesnt change the fact that 12 months are being counted for in both cases. if q4 of previous year is repated than q4 is of present year is also being eliminated
- if you divided the rental expense to other current assets added it comes to around 4.4 % yield, maybe the company used to use a particular factory on rent which they purchased in dubai. the first year they must have given an advance for it, should have idealy been clasified as cfi, but later when they finally purchased it they correctly shown in cfi.
- regarding the employee expense- the number of employees might have shot up as sales have shot up.
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First of all the company has to publish financial report as per Indian accounting standards in inr secondly commas in nos are placed as per Indian Method not as per International method.