I am posting my portfolio here for feedback from esteemed fellow boarders.
I understand equities and believe its the best way for a guy like me to create wealth overtime. But I lack the wisdom or the skills required to pick stocks. So, have resorted to what is called "Shameless Cloning". I chanced upon various blogs and identified some to clone from. The idea is "To appreciate Sachin's game one doesn't need the same talent". Though I lack skills to pick stocks myself, I believe I can pick people who are good at it.
My porfolio contains stocks cloned from various sources. Invite views/advice/criticism on my stocks as well as my strategy.
Interesting, you have Noida Toll Bridge as your second largest holding.
Actually I go via Noida Toll Bridge daily for communicating between Home and Office. Thanks to some repair work undergoing in Kalindi kunj bridge, which connect south delhi with Noida, it is closed for 1 and half month, and is expected to be closed for another one and half month (mostly one way, and sometime two ways). This has resulted in super heavy traffic in noida toll bridge, with 2-5x increase in traffic, and huge traffic jams. This results in as high as 45 min delay in communicating sometimes.
By looking at the quantity of vehicle moving for 3 months, there should be a big increase in earnings for Noida toll bridge, as it has a fixed cost structure. The only reason I am not investing here is that I don’t know how this shall actually effect the earning and this is not a long term phenomenon.
Balaji. cloning is not a bad idea and there is nothing to feel ashamed about it. Only problem is that the person/organization will not tell you when the story turns sour. Please be watchful and follow the story closely,
Parag Parikh is very bullish on this stock(search for his interviews to business channels in youtube). That is enough reason for me buy this stock.This is a turnaround play which could play out in a year or two. The debt is largely reduced and the company has started paying dividends. As you rightly said the cost is fixed and now since the debt is low, most of revenue growth should directly go to the bottom line. The growth can happen in two ways. Natural increase in traffic, just about 50% capacity is utilized now. So, there is room for the volume to double over the years. Another way is of course hike in toll charges. This is controversial for obvious reasons. However, in the long term better sense should prevail, hopefully!
I have one observation on your sources of idea and cloning in general.
The people whom you have cloned from (for example subramoney) mostly don’t reveal the idea immediately after they buy. They put it on their blog after run-ups. So generally by the time public get’s to know about the idea, it’s late. I get a feel, it’s the same with PPFAS too (unless you are a client). But the problematic part is, if you don’t have the time and inclination to follow up on these ideas , and rely on the same source for exit decisions. Mostly, these source are never going to tell you if anything goes wrong with the idea (and they frequently do, because investing like life is not a one frame photograph it’s a motion picture and the scene keep changing) or if they have met their price targets and exit.
For example, on Noida, lot of water has flown under the bridge since some big names considered it as a good investment. But of late their have been lot of bad news on it.
i tried something like this in the past in another market and failed miserably. you never know when they will exit and also how do you plan your allocation ? how do you know how many stocks they will recmmend and the weightage for each ? also sometimes you may be late entering the stock , cant keep checking their website everyday.
if i were to do cloning, 2 things i will do. pay some fees and subscribe to a good source. else visit forums like valuepickr and follow the discussions and keep buying/selling what a reputed guy (like hitesh for example) is recommending.
but at the end of the day you are still depending on someone. i always belive in learning how to fish than fish itself. you can mix your own ideas and validate here and then execute. you get more conviction. without conviction you will always be fearing whether your decision is correct or not
i am also in the same boat. thats why i lack conviction and hence cant commit ‘huge’ funds. my plan is to read , learn from this forum on what basis the stocks are being recommended. this will take a year. then i will do my own picks and get them validated here for another 1 year. after that i will be on my own (regardless of forum exists or internet exists)