Bala Portfolio

Right now i have a very small portfolio that i built recently (last 3 months). I am planning to add positions on monthly basis to make it a meaningful portfolio in 2 years.

Current Portfolio

HDFC Bank 21%
Titan 17%
Page 17%
Hawkins 16%
Indusind 11%
Polymed 5%
Kajaria 4%
HUL 4%
Gruh 3%

Targetted Portfolio (in 2 years)

Hawkins 20% LT
Page 18% LT
Gruh 15% LT
Titan 15% LT
HDFC Bank 12% LT
Polymed 7% ST
Kajaria 7% ST
Indusind 6% ST

the tagetted portfolio has 80% in core/long term holdings and remaining 20% is for short term opportunities and will change periodically. since i dont understand pharma business, i am staying away from pharma stocks. i am also considering mayur, astral for short term category.

since most of the stocks are already discussed here, i dont need to specify the reasons. but i want my allocation and strategy validated by others. right now i am learning the value picking and i need to dig deep in my invested stocks. if you ask me whats approximate eps of hawkins for last year, without refering the website, i cant tell. i need to understand their business, products, people and stock movement apart from reading and analysing the balance sheets.

i really like the following quote i got in my inbox

"you can borrow idea but not conviction."

without conviction , difficult to buy/sell any stock.

my equity component in my overall networth is around 10% (in 2 years) and all my new investments will be in equities and plan on moving that to 50% atleast.

All picks appear sensible . How has been the performance? Why hv ,

U liked Kajaria n indusind ? R u following some other paid site as well?

i just started 2-3 months back, so most of them are at purchase price.

right now i am ‘borrowing’ others ideas. over a period i will try to do more research and find my own picks

To me looks like a very-low-tension, low-risk, conservative, TED-flavored portfolio. I want a portion of my portfolio adorned with name like this in my portfolio in future.

good portfolio. it should provide good steady returns.

try to keep one or two stocks which can be dark horses and provide outsized returns so that overall portfolio returns can also be magnified.

Isn’t Titan and page looking highly overvalued . IS it safe to invest at these levels…

thanks ,

mvalue,

page is available at 28 PE for fy13 (eps 120). page is always like this , recently they have increased their prices of jockey products (will reflect in Q4), the raw material cost is going down, they are expanding fast and adding new products (speedo). considering low debt, high roce, high dividend payout, growth prospects its available at decent price for long term investors like me. i dont mind short term price corrections.

titan is available at 30 PE for fy13 (eps 9). this is a long term compounding machine. it may not be a multibagger but will give 20-25 cagr returns. expecting a bumper Q3 results considering diwali and bunch of weddings.

such stocks should be bought on declines whenever they correct.

added some more hawkins at 2078 and page at 3370

planning to sell hul for loss and move that money to hdfc bank if it corrects some more and page. also planning to move kajaria into page

in view of my small portfolio, i have decided to reduce the number of stocks and take more risks and go for concentrated folio. also i got around 25% of additional cash and another 20% LAS (dont know if this is right time) and decided to sell some stocks.

decided to completely sell indus ind bank (results are extraordinary and shoould provide a good exit with around 15% profit), hdfc bank (exit on optomism on rate cuts with around 5% profit). already sold kajaria, hul, polymed.

with additional money, i am planning to buy kaveri, unichem and ajanta. also add little bit of hawkins.

my targeted folio is like this

kaveri 25% (fresh purchase at current levels)

unichem 18% (already owned 25% qty, remaining to be bought)

page 16 (old purchase)

titan 14 (old purchase)

hawkins 10 (old purchase)

ajanta 10 (to buy at current levels)

gruh 7 (old purchase)

my plan is to add some more hawkins before results from additional money and wait for Q4 results and take a call after that. titan – dont want to touch unless it goes up drastically.

i silicit views of others please

thanks

completely sold hdfc bank and indis bank. hdfc bank as expected came out with excellent results. also sold half of titan. bought some kscl, unichem and hawkins

expected portfolio

hawkins 20 (make or break in 6 months)

page 16

kscl 15

unichem 15

titan 10 (will add on declines)

gruh 7

ajanta 7 (will wait for q4 results)

hi bala,

could you share why you got out of hdfc bank? do you see some rough times ahead?

)- HG

)- HG

hi hemanth,

hdfc bank is a very good stock, we can expect 20-25% growth continously. my portfolio size is very small and i cant put lot of money on steady compounders like page, hdfc b, titan. i need to take some risk and target higher returns. for example, as per the discussions and data on this forum, unichem has potential to go up by 50% in 12 months. same thing with kaveri. i cant expect hdfc bank to go up by 50% in same period

for large portfolios, hdfc bank is a very good stock. we can put lot of money and sleep well

Ok. Yes, even I don’t think it can go up by 50% from 700 levels any time soon. I asked coz I thought you might have seen some technical indications that it will correct from these levels.

updating my portfolio as it stands today

kaveri 31

hawkins 24

accelya 16

unichem 15

gruh 7

symphony 3

caplin 3

v-guard 1

yesterday sold full qty titan. waiting to enter repco, astral, page

i have exited page completely after Q4 runup around 4250. will buy again around 4000 levels. missed repco even though it was in my radar, i was buying unichem at that time. last 3 are my initial positions, will consolidate after some more study and conviction. i am hopeful kaveri, hawkins, unichem will be the stars of fy14

Bala,

You had a chance of adding Ajanta Pharma when it recently fell to 780 levels. Symphony, Caplin and V Guard do not look good in an other wise very good portfolio.

tony,

thats why their allocation is small

Hi bala,
Nice portfolio.Accelya is an interesting story.Pls share some reasons for your conviction in it.V-Guard is a very good company.Maybe you can add more after due diligence.You might like to look at VA Tech Wabag or Amara Raja.Don’t know much about Caplin,except that its a Pharma company.Symphony is a play on the summer temperatures :wink: Good going.

sagar,

theres a thread on accelya you can refer. key points for me :

1). at expected 62 rs eps, pe is around 7 for fy13

2). high div yield of around 6%

3). high foreign promoter stake

4). niche products, no compitition, excellent domain expertise, diversified revenue models which include regular annuties and long term contracts. they host the services on per transaction basis, also they sell the products and offer support. one of very few indian companies deleoping IT products

5). almost nil coverage by analysts, no con calls, no undue disadvantage to minority share holders like us.

6). last 5 years sales cagr 20%, np cagr 35%, virtually debt free, excellent cash flows

7). depreciating rupee. 70% sales are from outside india

regarding v-guard, they have given lower margin guidance due to high ad spent in Q1 (ipl), should start picking up from Q2 onwards, expanding their product mix, expanding geographical presense to non-south markets. strong brand

Bala congrats on your outstanding performance of your Portfolio specially Accelya where you had the conviction of putting 16% of your portfolio.

All are nice picks in your PF keep it up.

Please tell your strategy of investing in Hawkins. Isn’t it turning into a hope stock for a fairly long time now?