Avenue Supermart: a compounding machine?

I think it is a good move for Dmart. New mind/blood will enable Dmart for new ideas.

for those who actively buy locally and online, itā€™s definitely expensive through QC. only exception, for me at least is reliance retail for specific items. And thatā€™s more to do with my postcode as I seem to be very near a delivery centre as I get it in 45m.

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Here is my two cents
I live in Whitefield, Bangalore. Where many QC players like Bigbasket, Zepto, Blinkit guys are very active and delivering anywhere between 10-20 minutes. We are really getting pampered/spoiled by the super quick delivery. We used to get one delivery in a week (typically bigbasket) since Covid days. Now we get 2-4 small deliveries from Zepto in a week. Some times we order some vegetables 10 mins before cooking :slight_smile:
Now coming to pricing, definetly lower than Bigbasket and slightly higher than Dmat. However in metros, travel time to the store and cost of fuel need to be brought into the equation. Earlier i used to visit Dmart twice in a month, now reduced one visit in 2/3 months. QC is definetly denting the growth of Dmart in Metros.
Disclosure: Invested >3 years and continue to hold.

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  • I am thinking from the other end. All these quick delivery companies are making loss at the moment. how long can they sustain losses? They are just trying to catch the market, once they raise prices people will again go back to dmart.
  • They might loose market share in prime cities, but how about tier 2 places?
  • Why dmart is still opening stores if they are going to fall ?
  • My uncle who is price conscious, takes a taxi/auto to go to dmart which is in next area every month. when I asked, why dont you buy from shops in your area, he said, no one can beat dmart prices.
  • do we have educated and lazy people or do we have more price conscious people?

Not invested. Just my thought.

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Regarding your last point, I believe there are enough number of both types of people in India for both QC and dmart to grow.
I think people in metro cities, especially working professionals and couples, see value in QC which allows them to avoid going to stores and save time and energy which otherwise would have been spent in traffic. These are the people who donā€™t mind shelling extra for this convenience. So, this might be a structural shift for some people. I think this share of people is more in the metro cities and that might be denting dmart sales and sssg.
On the other hand there are enough value conscious people who would rather go to the store and buy in bulk. So, I think dmart still has a long runway of growth.

Disc: Was invested in dmart from 2020 to july 24. No investments anymore.

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Food for thought - Imagine if Dmart starts same day delivery in most location it serves (mind you not the 10 minutes QC but same day delivery)ā€¦will many of these lazy folks (including me) who flock QC, at least plan their day delivery and Dmart retake a part of the pie taken by QC?

What is actually happening in QC is that apart from what you need in 10 minutes, you tend to order more (these are folks whose baskets are bigger and who matter). They probably need those items in a day or two or even for the week but just because they are ordering via QC for need of 1-2 items, they tend to order the rest as well.

I think its high time for folks like Dmart & even Star to reclaim this lost territory and even if they do this, the damage to QC folks will far outweigh the immediate benefit to Dmart/Star etc. The QC story might feel a little shiver then.

Whatever happens going forward, I do not know but I am sure it will be exciting.

Disc: Trent & Dmart among top holdings hence highly biased & critical. Post only for learning purpose. Not a buy/sell recommendation. Not eligible for any advice

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Yesterday, I Got 3 back to back calls from d Mart for next 5 free home deliveries!!
But as you know, D Mart doesnā€™t provide Quick deliveries!!

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The Competitor for QC is not Dā€™Mart but Kirana stores. Its not a zero sum game for the organised sector. Both QC and Dā€™Mart will have adequate growth opportunities.

Disclosure : Invested in Zomato from much lower levels. Never got interested in Dā€™Mart due to high valuations.

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At least in Bangalore, I get the option for 3-4 hours delivery via DMart. I prefer DMart over other quick commerce (QC) options due to its lower cost. Additionally, buying groceries once a month helps us stick to the budget, whereas purchasing through QC often leads to exceeding the monthly budget.

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I think each will try to bite off some pie of otherā€¦zomato /blinkit had their chance and dent some growth (the discretionary basket would be a common and intersecting goal)ā€¦but still dmart managed profitable growth albeit slowed.
Now when the big boy tries to get back itā€™s lost pie, (that is the discretionary basket sans the QC), the dent in growth of QC can be more severe for their profitability or rather extent of losses.

Dmart will do what itā€™s good at and same for QC companies but the overlapping set, the discretionary basket and the new on boarders would determine the delta growth for each.

Survival & flourishing would depend in how good the individual business execution capabilities and profitability metrics areā€¦.

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Can you tell why dmart is over valued but zomato is not over valued? Asking for learning purpose

Zomato is future DMart. In a year it is possible around 50% down.

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This is an endless debate, and I am not adding any great value here but being a Quick Commerce customer, I just canā€™t resist adding my two cents to the discussion anyway. Apologies for wasting your time.

I donā€™t subscribe to the view that Quick Commerce companies will shut down once the easy money is over. The value proposition is so strong that they can continue to find financing for very long periods of time. Amazon made losses for several years, and predictions of death for Ola / Uber, or Swiggy / Zomato or many others have not turned out to be true.

As a consumer, I totally agree with what @ramana1777 has said above. Quick commerce has totally changed the way we shop for groceries. Besides the obvious benefits of saving time, fuel and energy, there are a couple of other benefits that people are overlooking.

For one, app-based purchases have made price comparisons easier! Imagine picking up four different brands of detergents, looking at the label, doing some mental calculation, and then discarding three and keeping the cheaper one! The sheer effort and even embarrassment of doing this in a supermarket or in front of your friendly neighborhood kirana is a deterrent. But the temptation to do this on the app is very strong! After all, most FMCG products are ultimately commodities, and it makes little difference which brand you use - Surf or Ariel, Colgate or Pepsodent, they are all the same.

Also, Quick Commerce has dramatically reduced the need to hold inventories in the household, reducing cost and freeing up space in the kitchen cabinets and refrigerators. And then, the Indian consumer has always gravitated towards small packet sizes, and unless the bigger pack offers a meaningful discount, why spend more upfront? Remember Chota Pepsi or Rs.1 hair oil sachet? Smaller unit sizes also allow for more experimentation given the multitude of labels that are there in the market. This by itself brings many benefits and has led me to discover many products I never knew existed or tried. On the other hand, the once-a-month ordeal forces you to play safe and buy the same thing again and again.

Of course, all this is not to say that the likes of DMart will shut down. But the value proposition of QC is too strong to be ignored. Forget discount, consumers will one day willingly pay a premium for the comfort.

(Disc. No positions)

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This would really put hundreds of years of brand building by likes of Colgate etc to dust :grinning: but yes all are free to have their own views and thatā€™s why market exists.

We are already paying premium in QC, including me, because I agree they provide immense value in convenience. Dmart will not shut down and neither QC would vanish, QC will thrive, but at what cost, in which form and by whomā€¦.this may evolve.

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In the Western world, apps like Uber Eats and Instacart allow customers to place grocery orders from stores such as Walmart, Target, Tesco, and others. There are two different models: one where delivery drivers enter the store and pick items directly from the shelves, and another where store associates, like those at Walmart or Tesco, prepare the order and hand it over to delivery personnel.

I wonder if DMart could explore a similar integration with platforms like BlinkIt, Zepto, or Instamart in India. This could potentially be a win-win for both quick commerce companies and DMart. While profits would be shared, it could still result in net benefits for all involved. It will be interesting to see how this concept evolves in the Indian market.

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My entry point in Zomato was predominantly at Rs 40-50 and I kept adding in double digits price range after which I stopped except for a very small component added recently. The key driver was the growth in FD at that stage ( I saw it as an opportunity because suddenly people had an option of ordering from wherever they wanted - till that time quick delivery of food was predominantly Dominoā€™s which I had held for a long time but I exited once other options emerged. Personally I also didnā€™t like the menu change which is a personal bias). The valuation was linked to FD directionally showing significant growth as well as improvement in margin with a line of sight of profits. As QC emerged the phenomenal growth potential further reinforced the story. Dā€™Mart on the other hand follows an Asset heavy model and hence scaling up has its limitations. SSSG growth has its limitations beyond a stage and finding right locations to add assets at a right price can have delay possibilities. In such a scenario the growth potential can get hit sometime in future was the call. Plus under no metrics did it look good valuation wise for a conventional brick and mortar model. It did give good returns to those who invested but for me not just growth but also downside protection is a consideration.

Recently, this thread has been flooded with endless discussions about QC companies. I kindly request that these discussions be kept in their respective threads (Zomato, Swiggy) and that posts here should only include data points on how DMart is impacted. Otherwise, letā€™s keep this thread dedicated to Avenue Supermart.