March shrimp export figures to US are encouraging. Indian exports grew yoy by 30% (and only country to show yoy growth). Overall, Jan to Mar qtr has shown a growth of 18% yoy in 2019. Clearly good signs that industry is coming back to normalcy.
https://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/apex/f?p=169:2:::NO:::
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Good article on same lines - https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2019/05/10/us-shrimp-import-volumes-climb-again-though-values-dont-follow/
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Hi Hitesh bhai, Can you let me know the MAâs you have used for this, I normally use 20/50 EMA, I guess after your position taken it has fallen down, from the channel breakout shown in the chart you entry must be somewhere b/w 405-412. (I am learning technical s so my comment could be naive)
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seems Shrimp industry is coming back to india
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More new market opening as china will bigger market for shrimp even bigger then US
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But if the US tariff imposition takes place, wonât China end up consuming more than importing and in a way reduce the opportunity available in the Chinese market?
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whatever is the case , seems like this trade war is turning out to be good for India shrimps companies.
Managementâs response to how China market is shaping up in FY19Q2 earnings con-call.
I believe not much would have changed, but still worth checking with management again in upcoming con-call.
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Q4 results of Avanti feeds; net profit lower by ~ 11-12% qoq, yoy. Considering the current industry scenario/competitors numbers, company has posted decent results , IMHO.
https://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=bbfaa962-51f5-42df-ba3f-a3420a2432f5
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They are talking of last years split (May 9, 2018). Not a new one.
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last slide of waterbaseâs Investor presentation gives a pessimistic outlook for the industry as whole in FY20.
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Avanti has posted somewhat decent nos as compared to peers.
However need to listen to concall for industry update which is crucial. Overall trend looks like FY20 will again be a flattish year for the sector
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time to do truck load .
Direct shrimp imports from India increased by 647% to 34,864t. From Saudi Arabia, direct shrimp imports increased from zero to 22,334t.
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This export is at a value if less than 6.2 dollar per kilo.Nothing to be gained out of it I guess
Went through FY19Q4 earnings con-call. Below please find my notes:
Q4FY19 Earnings Discussion Conf Call Notes: 06/12/2019
Feed Business & General Business Trend:
- From April onwards farm gate shrimp prices have started to move up. Large size has seen bigger jump in price (about 30%), while Medium size has seen decent jump (about 18-20%). Higher farm-gate prices would encourage more farmers to come back to farming.
- Shrimp prices have been moving higher in international markets as well, especially for larger size.
- Higher/better prices for larger size shrimp will push farmers to raise shrimps long-enough (2 more weeks) to gain larger size. This means more feed consumption by shrimp and positive for Avanti Feeds.
- Average realization is down because of product mix. Have not reduced prices for shrimp feed.
- Avanti not keen on backward integration as far as making its own raw material is concerned because of operational complications and specialization requirement. It prefers to focus on its core competency; to manufacture feed.
- Avantiâs FCR is 1.1-1.2 compared to industryâs 1.5-1.6.
- Management asked investors to keep faith in them to deliver in future too.
Processing & Exports:
- Inventory levels in US coming down.
- Capacity expansion in processing business can be done swiftly, if needed, it will not consume a lot of time and money.
- Domestic sales are captured in âOthersâ bucket. Domestic market is still at very nascent stage and will take long time for market to reach to a point where it makes sense for Avanti to take advantage of it.
- Avanti has lion share from customers like Chicken of the Seas and Red Lobster.
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Based on the pork culling due to virus in China, would have any impact on the shrimp prices ?
Read an article of expected increase in food inflation globally due to it.
Tryings to join dots.
Taking into account Modiâs push for âblue revolutionâ, WestCoast - Indiaâs leading shrimp exporter - has decided to invest less in shrimp farming and focus more on fish cage farming of barramundi, pangasius and tilapia.
While Avanti Feeds too has made it known of its similar intentions, not aware of any progress made in this area.
Excerpts from above article:
Modi has championed the so-called âblue revolutionâ that seeks to harness the potential of Indiaâs vast coastline and brackish water reserves to build a major aquaculture industry. WestCoast, the leading Indian shrimp exporter in western India, has aligned its venture capital-style model of partnering with farmers to grow in other species.
That has meant investing a lot less in shrimp farming and more on fish cage farming from barramundi, pangasius and tilapia to accompany fast growth in this sector, Shivam Gupta, CEO of WestCoastâs retail arm Cambay Tiger, told Undercurrent News . The company is betting on the Indian government developing this industry in a sustainable way with lower stocking densities that will be accepted in the US marketplace.
âA lot of our available capital has been deployed doing cage culture for fish,â Gupta said. âWe are using a new cage culture and analyzing how much of a reservoir you can use to farm fish. It will be more sustainable, a better product and less scrutinized from a US viewpoint.â
Modi, who was re-elected earlier this year and the first Indian PM to do so since the 1970s, has accelerated the âblue revolutionâ in his quest to build India into a $5 trillion economy by 2024. The government has made subsidies available for aquaculture entrepreneurs to start farms in inland reservoirs and build fishing harbors.
This subsidiary program dovetails with WestCoastâs business model, which has been to partner with farmers in the western states of India. States such as Gujarat in northwest India have some of the countryâs largest brackish water reserves that are suitable for aquaculture, according to the Seafood Exporters Association of India.
The company farms about 25,000t a year of its own shrimp and this ascends to 80,000t a year when taking into account third-party sales, making the Mumbai-based company one of the largest Indian exporters.
Shivam, the son of chairman Kamlesh Gupta, oversees the retail side of WestCoast, a unit called Cambay Tiger. This subsidiary is aiming to grow domestic demand for aquaculture and has enjoyed double-digit sales in metropolitan areas such as Bangalore, Delhi and Mumbai.
I spoke to some industry people to try and understand whatâs happening - as per the discussion - 1. the season has been ok till now 2. the current month of june has been very weak for the farming in southern parts (for eg. TN, southern parts of andhra etc) due to acute shortage/delay in rainfalls. As the monsoons has been weak (infact no rainfall in some areas), farmers are waiting for rainfall to happen. If the rainfall doesnât improve or happen in next couple of weeks, the upcoming season will get impacted in areas where there is lack of rainfall. If the monsoons progress and make up in coming weeks then probably things may normalize for the season.
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