Super start to Q1FY16
USA Shrimp Imports from India (Volume in Thousands of Kgs)
Source: News Reports Index (derived data)
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@lustkills
Its always a good idea to add a few key points - while pointing to an article or external link, etc.
In the age of informational overload, its a great gesture to take that trouble to make others better-informed by providing some clues why you think this is “not just an article”, but an article worth reading/paying attention to. Thanks 
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Noted and agree @Donald
The above short table is just a derived data from more than one reports @shrimpnews.com; purpose has been to save time and effort of fellow VP members.
What significance does this data have?
- India exports ~300,000+ MT of shrimps
- Exports ~100,000+ MT to U.S. alone
- U.S. shrimp import numbers from India could be used as a proxy to gauge shrimps production in India (helps cut disease, etc. fear)
Some more data to chew (pardon me if it is overdose)
- Jan-Apr 2015 numbers: 9% incease in U.S. consumption, however 29% increase in Indian export to U.S.
- Thailand is slowly getting back in action. Appears it has impacted Vietnam and China shrimp exports. Indian export to U.S. is flourishing (helps cut Thailand fear noise).
- IF the above trend continues, then Avanti’s plan to sell 50% more feeds in 2015 than 2014 may as well come true.
Source: http://www.ers.usda.gov/datafiles/Aquaculture/Trade/Shrimp_Q_Yearly.xls
Note: Please please read risks highlighted by Donald, T Anil Kumar, Rudra and others in the posts above. Everyone must be aware of these risks, should you choose to invest in Avanti Feeds.
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Sandeep - I was actually commending your post - maybe it did not come out right
You seem to be taking that extra care to point out why that article should be read - which Ayush failed to … ha ha. The “Thanks” was for that - and nudging Ayush (and everyone else) gently to do the same, whenever one posts a link or article. A bland link (though commendable) is not good enough 
Its already noticeable from your posts - the “Likes” that you are getting, that the Community is loving it and responding by acknowledging the extra effort !
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India: Sharat Industries, a company listed on Import Alert 16-129 for nitrofurans on March 9, 2015, had one entry line refused for shrimp contaminated with nitrofurans and veterinary drug residues in the Los Angeles District.
India: Sandhya Aqua Exports, Pvt., Ltd., a company not currently listed on either Import Alert 16-124 or Import Alert 16-129, had one entry line refused for shrimp contaminated with nitrofurans and veterinary drug residues in the Southwest Import District.
For 2015, the FDA has refused 138 entry lines of shrimp shipped from Malaysia for reasons related to veterinary drug residues, 30 from Vietnam, 25 from India, 9 from China and 1 from Indonesia.
For both Malaysia and India, there have now been more shrimp entry lines refused by the FDA for reasons related to antibiotics in the first five months of this year than in any prior year reported by the FDA.
For Vietnam, the only year in which more shrimp entry lines were refused by the FDA for reasons related to antibiotics than 2015 was 2014.
- Entry Line Defined: FDA refusals are not of shipments; rather they are defined as “entry lines”. A single container of shrimp shipped to the United States could include multiple entry lines. For example, a single container of imported shrimp could contain peeled and deveined shrimp of multiple count sizes. An importer can break this shipment out into multiple entry lines—PND 31-40 count as one, PND 41-50 as another, and PND 51-60 as a third. If all of this shrimp is contaminated with antibiotics and detected by the FDA at the border, then that single container load would be reported as three entry line refusals.
An entry line is a type of product in any given container or other method of import. Example: A container of imported shrimp (40,000 pounds) may have several different types of shrimp within that container such as peeled and deveined, cooked, breaded and headless shell-on. Each different type of product in that container has its own code and each product is considered an “entry line”.
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There is a news of fall in shrimp price in Economic times.
Does this impact feed price also? Can anyone from coastal India throw some light on current feed prices?
Edited on 20-Jun-15 11:00 pm
I quote from the ET article attached above
According to Globefish, a unit of FAO fisheries and aquaculture department that reports on international fish trade, the demand has been muted in the US since January 2015 because of large unsold stocks imported in 2014.
Muted demand in US since Jan 2015 seems contrary to the data presented in @lustkills write-up. Data shows a 29% increase in shrimp imports to US from India. The data source of @lustkills is Department of Commerce, United States Bureau of the Census.
Therefore can we conclude that ET article is not factual. Indian shrimp demand from US is intact.
Edited 21-Jun-15 12:00
The price of shrimp (United States - NY- Frozen Shrimp) from Jun-14 to Jun-15
Impact if any is on the demand side rather than price of feed. Besides that it is already a known fact that there is leftover supply from last year and the growth in demand is expected to be lower compared to previous years. Demand from US market is yet to pick up but China via Vietnam are in a way filling the gap (although at a much lower rates as these markets demand lower size shrimps)
There is a good presentation by Waterbase (competitor to Avanti) - http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/520F9543_5D4C_4182_8C5E_09AEAE53EB81_153107.pdf. It can be helpful to understand more about the industry.
Ayush
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Hi Esteemed Avanti Boarders
With shrimp prices declining and CP Foods recovering partially do we envisage any potential red flags?
From what i can understand speaking to market players is lot of guys have entered into aquaculture. Only players who are integrated from farming to processing are surviving in a cut throat industry…
Would this also lead to oversupply situation in the industry?
Worried about its impact on Avanti…
Views invited…
Disclosure:No holdings
"Heavy rains in the state of Andhra Pradesh, the heart of India’s shrimp farming region, have forced farmers to harvest early, causing farm-gate prices for all sizes of Penaeus vannamei to drop, except for 90 and 100 count per kilogram whole shrimp.
Indian processors are dropping export prices for customers in the USA because Indonesian processors are offering lower prices. USA buyers have been holding back on making big commitments and only buying to cover holes in their inventories."
- Source shrimpnews.com
With all these tailwinds setting in my fears are coming true that there is excess oversupply of shrimps in the market.
Esteemed boarders, any views of the same on Avanti and the outlook of Indian Shrimp industry in general over the medium in genral?
Coverage of Avanti Feeds in latest issue of Business Today - http://businesstoday.intoday.in/story/emerging-companies-2015-avanti-seeds-growth-on-shrimp-demand/1/221077.html
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Below Avanti laser show(Annual Dealer meet) video helped me to understand the different states where avanti seeds is marketed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmrQuWqUkyU. But its very old 2014. Please ignore if already shared.
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Thanks @ayushmit for sharing. I see the latest issue of Business Today has covered many businesses like Avanti Feeds, Kaveri Seed, Suven Life Sciences etc. I enjoyed reading the articles and it shares some interesting insights on the business history, promoter’s journey and future growth path.
Thanks,
Amit
good video.reach of avanti is quite deep specially in andhra.lot of potential to increase in other states
At current valuation, is it right time to enter in the stock or should wait for some correction.
Indian seafood business is on the verge of a major transformation, like the one ushered in by the exotic vannamei shrimp, with scientists at Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Aquaculture, Chennai, closing in on a stock of domesticated, disease-free black tiger shrimp, native to Indian waters.
“We are into the sixth generation of SPF tiger shrimp and trial farming in Odisha and Kerala, using bio-secure enclosures, has produced good results,” said an official of Marine Products Export Development Authority here on Thursday. He said that commercial-scale aquaculture using genetically-improved black tiger shrimp should be on in about five years. With it, black tiger shrimp will join Atlantic salmon, Pacific vannamei and unisex tilapia in the roster of genetically-improved varieties. SPF stocks are capable of doubling productivity, said the official pointing out what it meant to the seafood export business in the country.
Genetically improved, farmed tilapia yield is near five tonnes per hectare; vannamei yield is 3.5 to five tonnes and black tiger shrimp yield has been three tonnes. Farmers get Rs. 300 a kg of 30-count vannamei and the price of tiger shrimp is higher.
Besides a surge in production, acquiring a genetic base for aquaculture means more eco-friendly, sustainable business, he said.
Disc: Invested
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Good article.BS comes with quality news reporting unlike many of its peers maybe due to its owner Uday Kotak.
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Hi Vivek
quoting a line from the source
“Shrimp exports during the period increased by 18.60%, 16% and 15.54% in quantity, rupee value and US$ value respectively**. > However, unit value realization decreased to 10.38 US$/Kg from 10.65 in 2013-14, a negative growth of 2.59%.”**
This is what is the more worrying factor, while no doubt shrimp exports have improved quantitatively but per unit realizations have dropped and over the coming period it could be significant.
This could also imply huge carrying costs for the cultured farmers and could also result in inventory losses for them…
From my discussions with market people, exporters are either present as raw shrimp exporters or have ventured into ready to eat/packaged/branded seafoods (the latter being more sustainable in evidence of price drops)
My fears are the shrimp industry is now saturated with oversupply which is why prices are significantly coming down… This situation needs to be monitored and could have an impact.
Sreekanth,
It is true that high shrimp prices for last 2-3 years was an aberration and it is not right to expect similar kind of growth in future. But at the same time the boon in prices for last few years helped players like Avanti to scale up significantly wherein the externalities like high soya prices or lower demand will have lesser impact because of their high cash flows. Besides that Avanti has already started the process of backward and forward integration by setting up hatcheries and coming up of 15000T processing plant (JV with TUF) by next year. Lastly recent article shared by Vishnu also shows a new trend where the scientists may be able to produce EMS resistant black shrimp species with much higher yields which can act as future growth driver.
Inspite of all this Avanti is a still a business with high uncertainties and until it can lower the risk by diversifying into fish feeds or enter into high value added products it is very unlikely that the market will give it higher pe rating from current levels so this should be seen as an earnings growth story.
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Hi Aman
The aberration in prices has not only helped avanti but literally every player in industry due to short term demand supply mismatch which is understandable…
However are the supply drivers sustainable over the medium term with thai manufacturers resuming production post EMS syndrome driving the costs further downwards?
Further with regards to producing EMS resistant shrimps really not sure how it would be perceived by the market as it still has lot of uncertainties…
Of-late farmers have also been reporting a new set of disease called white spot which are found in cultured shrimps in the east coast which has led to lot of export rejections…
My only worry is Avanti " a pure commodity type" play where the boom times have generated money and growth could have come in cycles where we have seen only the uptrend of the cycle and not vice-versa???..
Regards
Sreekanth
Disclosure: No holdings in the stock, just a keen observer of the shrimp industry