My guess is realisations may have been lower in Q4 as compared to Q3.The growth has been very strong again & topline is also similar.Owing to the sharp rise after Q3,I expect some further consolidation in AF before it makes another move.An exit from T2T maybe a Joker in the pack(big investors would certainly like some more liquidity)
Disc.: Invested since almost an year & wish to hold for another. 
Marine product exports zoom to record $5 billion
I believe that this coming quarter will be as good if not better than the past two quarters gone by. Other exporters are also doing well. Only issue is OPM is low and the management have also said that 12% margin is too good and may not be sustainable. Got to love when market participants get confused between risk and uncertainty and sell their business stake at a discount. 
The real question ( for me at least) to get a sense of Avantiās fair valuation is- what are sustainable levels of profits for Avanti once SE Asian markets return to normal production levels and shrimp prices normalize?
Lower prices will likely lead to more demand and higher shrimp volumes, not clear to me how this will impact Avantiās total net profits.
One area which the earlier management Q&Aā's missed is the cost structure/competitiveness of Avanti versus Thai producers, for commodity companies this is critical, in time of normal demand and supply ( and sometimes temporary over supply) those with competitive cost structures will continue to make money while the marginal ones go under.
Hi,
Does the stock look expensive within 500-600 range, assuming the sharp run-up in anticipation of +100% growth and may be around 30-40% in FY15. I have created a simple spreadsheet, does 30-40% growth looks achievable? in that case what sort of share price can we expect? Confused about hold vs. sell, got in at a price of c550.
Avanti-Feeds.xls (22.5 KB)
Article and a view on Shrimp prices worldwide.
https://www.shrimpnews.com/FreeReportsFolder/NewsReportsFolder/WorldPricesReboundBoliDaniel.html
Discl: Not Invested.
Avanti out of T2T From June 13.
http://www.bseindia.com/markets/MarketInfo/DispNewNoticesCirculars.aspx?page=20140609-29
ET article - Shrimps Turn Taste-maker in Seafood Platter
Guardian article -Shrimp sold at Walmart, Costco tied to slave labor - Positive for Avanti??
http://magazine.foxnews.com/food-wellness/truth-about-shrimp-salmon-lobster-crab-and-more
**Shrimp: **Three ounces of shrimp (or about seven medium-sized shrimp) has a mere 84 calories, 1g of fat, and an impressive 18g of lean protein. And talk about versatility: enjoy them chilled (cocktail style), in a stir-fry with your favorite veggies, tossed in a steaming bowl of soup, perched atop a crisp leafy salad, stacked on skewers, and more. Nutritionally, shrimp are a great source of selenium, an antioxidant that fights cancer-causing free radicals in your body. Other nutrients in shrimp include vitamins D and B3, plus the mineral zinc, and iodine, which
is important for dieters because deficiencies can promote weight gain or hinder weight loss. If you are watching your cholesterol, itas best to go easy on shrimp because four large shrimp have 42.5mg of cholesterolā¦
World is moving towards healthy food habits.Shrimps comes absolutely at top in terms of healthy food.So opportunity size is big and going to increase regularly as world population likes this high in protein and Omega3 fatty acids and low in calories n fat foods.
We need to calm our nerves and stay invested in this high quality stock as India is free from disease for last 5 -6 years ever since the launch of Vannamei thanks to stringent measures of MPEDA,Co focus on feeds and regular expansion, ethical promoter with superb execution record over 20 years,TUF stake of 25%,ROCE of 40%,PE of 6,Div yld of 2.3% & huge opportunity size imho.
The AF business is now generating ROCE of about 60%(correct me,if I am wrong) This means that the business is turning more & more capital efficient.Now,its available at 8.6x TTMā¦which on a RoCE basis alone,seems attractive.Assuming even a 40% growth in bottomline for Fy15,the EPS should be somewhere around 110.The poor supplies from Thailand,Japan should continue to aid Indian suppliers.AGM may mark a turning point.The stock has been in consolidation mode from 3-4 monthsā¦with small upsurges.
However,since MPEDA has done so well to keep away the Shrimp farms from diseases from 5-6 yearsā¦the probability of diseases is increasing(akin to the āreversion to meanā theory :D) I think,this is the only concern now for AF.Otherwise,it can trade at much better valuations.
Disc.: Invested & wish to stay invested.
http://www.businessworld.in/news/business/corporate/making-the-cut-1/1417420/page-1.html
Visibility improving for Avanti n Alluring Indra Kumar.
Received the AR for 2013-2014 for AF.They sound quiet bullish & expect the global Shrimp demand to continue rising in Fy2015 too.They also talk about the industryās petition to attain the status of an āAgriculture Industryāā¦to avail the benefits.Infrastructure problems have also been mentioned.
All in all,its the same old,unglamorous AR.This gives me even more confidence on this one 
I suspect the multiples have a good chance of rising towards double digits,as confidence about Feed practices increases.
Disc.: Invested.
Few things i noted down from the FY14 AR.
**
**
Industry Info
-Indian seafood product exports during 2013-14 recorded major jump of 59% (Rs.29,500 crores as against Rs.18,856 crores)in value terms.
-Shrimp exports accounted for 65% of the total sea food exports in value terms, an increase of 100% ascompared to previous year( Rs.19,175 croress againstRs.9,608 crores).In volume terms the shrimp exports grew by 33% from 2.26 lac MTin 2012-13 to 3.02 MT in 2013-14.
)- The major export market has been USA, Europe, Japan and South East Asia during 2013-14 for shrimpexports.
-The growth in shrimp culture is due to continued changeover from Black Tiger shrimpcultivation to Vannamei Shrimp Culture supported by remunerative export prices during the year 2013-14.This trend is being continued during the current year also.
-In order to ensure sustained growth of shrimp culture, with specific emphasis on Vannamei shrimp culture, theGovernment of India has initiated stringent regulatory measures such as mandatory approvals for setting uphatcheries, import of brood stock from specified approved overseas suppliers and continuous surveillance ofVannamei hatchery operations, mandatory approval of Vannamei farms, EIA Certification of shrimps at the timeof harvest, etc.
-The global shrimp consumption continues to show increase year after year, assuring consistent market. Thedomestic market is also picking up slowly and gradually with parity of shrimp prices with any othercomparable products such as meat and poultry.
-Remunerative international prices for shrimps hasalso encouraged new farmers in taking up theshrimp cultivation.
Capacity Related Info
)- A plant with 50,000 MT per annum capacity at Kovurcommenced production from Marchā14. Production capacity at Gujarat feed plant has also been enhanced adding 30,000 MTper annum.
-The Company is operating a Vannamei hatchery on a leasehold hatchery producing Vannamei seed tosupply good quality Vannamei seed to the farmers. The CompanyĆ¢s long term plan of establishing a highstandard vannamei hatchery did not take shape during 2013-14, as anticipated. However, the Company iskeen to implement this project in the current year i.e 2014-15.
-The four windmills of your Company located inKarnataka State with a total capacity of 3.2 MWhave generated 62.39 lac units as against 62.14 lacunits generated during the previous year andpower generated was sold to Karnataka PowerTransmission Corporation Limited under PPA.
Company Financial Performance
)- The year2013-14 ended with shrimp feed sales at 1,49,891MT, an increase of 46,903 MT as compared toprevious financial year.
)- The shrimp processing and export division salesrecorded export of 3,289 MT in 2013-14 as against2,551 MT in the previous year, registering anincrease of 29%.
)- Long term borrowing remains negligible.
)- Inventory nearly doubled from 97 cr. to 191 cr. -
)- Trade receivables at 45 cr vs 39.72 cr.
)- Net Cash generated from Operating activity is 56.87 cr.
)- FCF for the year at 20.44 cr.
)- 13.62 cr. of dividend announced for the year (excluding div.)
Disc: Invested
Its Official, No EMS/AHPND in India This study has demonstrated the association of V. parahaemolyticus with outbreaks of mortalities among Pacific white shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei, but the V. parahaemolyticus isolates did not match the characteristics of strains associated with EMS/AHPND. The strains of V. parahaemolyticus that caused the mortalities in this study were probably opportunistic pathogens of immunocompromised L. vannamei under unfavorable environmental conditions. This paper strongly suggests that the mortalities reported in India during October and November 2013 were due to vibriosis rather than AHPND. http://www.shrimpnews.com/FreeReportsFolder/NewsReportsFolder/IndiaNoEMS.html
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/569998/maine-s-shrimp-fishery-may-face-new-restrictions
looks like there will be more demand for Indian Imported shrimp In East Coast of US. Eventually more business for Avanti Feeds.
Hello everone
This is my first post in this forum. Iām a great fan of valueppickr, And Iām also very much thankful to the coordinator of the forum for letting me become a part of the forum.
I have gone through the whole discussion regarding avanti feeds. Next week iām going to hyderabad. If some one can give me the contact no. and/or address of some feeds supplier of avanti feeds, i would like to meet them and know about the markets of shrimp feeds.
Disc: thinking about investing in avanti feeds
Hello everone
This is my first post in this forum. Iām a great fan of valueppickr, And Iām also very much thankful to the coordinator of the forum for letting me become a part of the forum.
I have gone through the whole discussion regarding avanti feeds. Next week iām going to hyderabad. If some one can give me the contact no. and/or address of some feeds supplier of avanti feeds, i would like to meet them and know about the markets of shrimp feeds.
Disc: thinking about investing in avanti feeds
http://www.click2houston.com/news/start-of-shrimp-season-arrives-with-shortages-expected/26970778
http://news92fm.com/456050/gulf-shrimp-prices-expected-to-double-this-year/
Hello,
Avanti Feeds latest Annual Report has been upload today on BSE websiteā¦