Results on May 30th.
Was there any bonus provided on this scrip? For some weird reason, I see more units than I bought for this one. Just wanted to check if anyone else has this issue.
No bonus has been provided.
Waterbase which is a peer to Avanti is reporting its results on 27th May. It should provide us a direction for Avantiās results on 30th
My views on Avanti at present:
I feel it is a sell.
Although the results are expected to be very good, the future outlook seems to be uncertain.
Prices have just started dropping. Although its too early to say if this will be a trend going ahead as well. But the production in fewother countrieshas also increasedwhich is increasing the supply and which I believe would keep the prices in check or push them further downwards.
Opportunities like Avanti are not very long term bets and are opportunistic bets for short term to medium term, because as lot of other players would try to cash in on the existing opporunity which in turn would result in over supply and prices coming down. There is no moat or entry barriers and hence supply would outrun the demand eventually.
Avanti would also be impacted by the appreciation of the rupee in the medium to long term.
Above said, I feel that the growth momentum would slow down and as a result the stock price would get impacted.
The stock price may move up in the short term but I think it will move down eventually if not very soon. I had been invested in Avanti but decided to book profits as risk-reward ratio seems to be unfavorable due to uncertainties ahead.
I know there are lot of fellow members who are bullish on Avanti here. But these are my views with the limited understanding that I have and I may be proved wrong going ahead.
Discl: Exited.
HR,
My understanding of Avanti is that it derives a majority of its revenues from fish and shrimp feeds rather than shrimp itself. If you look at the annual report of 2013 you will notice that more than 500 crores of the 650 crore annual turnover comes from shrimp feed rather than shrimp exports which does not have a direct correlation to shrimp prices. Further this percentage is going to rise this quarter onwards because Avanti has just commissioned a further 80,000T plant last quarter for shrimp feeds.
Regarding the point of the dollar, about 510 crores of the 650 odd crore turnover comes from the domestic market! Further, a majority of the 140 crores comes from shrimp exports which as a percentage of the whole business is only going to come down as new capacities of shrimp feed are commissioned.
In my view, Avanti, with its shrimp feed products designed to cater to the Vannamei segment stands on a firm footing with the growth of Vannamei species shrimp farming in India which is likely to outgrow that of Tiger prawns.
Definitely as other countries like Thailand catch up from the disease outbreak prices of shrimp are going to be on a downtrend trend and some market share is going to shift away from India but in my opinion the negative impact of the drop of prices is unlikely to impact Avantiās business much atleast for the next 3-4 quarters (there will be upside from additional capacity of shrimp feeds)!
Disc: Still very much invested!
I might be totally wrong and would love to have your thoughts if you still disagree but only time will tell!
fewother countrieshas also increasedwhich
Disc: Invested at 250, bought more during the correction at 530 and made wife buy some at 570! 
Hi Abhishek,
Thanks for pointing the above out.
In all humility I accept that I had misread the composition of the Shrimp Feeds and Shrimp exports to the overall revenues. This was a big misunderstanding on my part.
Hence please discount my views expressed in the post above.
On a personal level though I would still exit the stock. This is purely on the basis of certain things that I am not comfortable with while investing and is not on the basis of prospects of the stock.
I find it difficult to assess the demand of Shrimps in India once the prices fall in US, Japan, UK, etc. Would the demand in India be able to support the Shrimp farming in India if the exports go down in future?
If Shrimp production is affected and goes down then so does the demand for Shrimp feeds.
The prospects may look good for another 3-4 Qtrs., results are expected to be good, there has been a huge capacity expansion (promoters would know their businesses better and then only undertake such capacity expansion), promoters have been buying from the market; But I am uncomfortable when the prospects of a business can change rapidly as it increases the uncertainty in that case and hence I donāt mind losing out on the opportunity if the stock price moves up.
As I said, please discount my views in the earlier post fully as it was on the basis of wrong understanding of the composition of the revenue.
Hope others who are invested can make some good money in this though 
Hiteshji, can you pls confirm whether Avanti has formed a flag pattern on daily charts?
Previous flag pattern played out perfectly giving a move of Rs 240.
The current flag pattern give a target of 800+. Also the flag pattern coincide with the results which are on 30th
@ HR,
I feel you should have sold after the results as you acknowledge the company is expected to deliver good results. Having said that, I myself have sold stocks earlier than I should have (not Avanti feeds).
Iām invested since 290, then bought some at 450 odd and then now at 560 as well. I feel for Avanti we should see forward PE ratio. Q3FY13 EPS was 24+ and it still trades around 5 times forward earnings. I know even April month was a good month for marine exporters and I will continue to buy (albeit very tiny quantity) every time it hits 5% lower circuit from the next trading session.
Hi Ashwin.
Why do you say it will hit 5% lower circuits from next trading sessions? The reason why I am asking is, I am planning to take some exposure in it and was wondering at what point I should enter.
Also, I guess the charts (as already pointed out by forum colleague) is showing a consolidation pattern and may move up few hunderd rupees.
Am new to this and trying to learnā¦your reason will help me understand. Thanks.
Sujit
I do not know if the stock will hit lower circuit. All I said was IF it hits lower circuit, then Iāll buy more.
IMO, no point in timing or waiting for ācorrectionā in these small/micro cap stocks. You may consider buying at CMP after due diligence.
Avanti was expected to come out of trade 2 trade (T group) this month. But as per Bse notice on 16th May Avanti will continue in the T group till the next review which is in August.
Hi Ashwin,
Thanks for your views.
As I mentioned earlier its just a matter of comfort level. I personally do not feel comfortable as I think the variables would start increasing going ahead. Other investors may be well equipped to handle this (personally I donāt think I am well equipped enough to handle variables and assess few things with respect to Avanti going ahead in next few qtrs.). For me lesser the variables over a period of 3-4 years, better I feel. Increasing variables over a period of 1 year less comfortable I feel.
There is one thing common for me in dressing up and in investing i.e. wear what you feel comfortable in (fashion/fad/brand etc. donāt matter), similarly invest what you feel comfortable with (losing out on extra returns doesnāt matter). That said I entered at same levels as yours 280 & 450). So happy to have booked whatever profits I could
P.S. My comment not to be construed as a view on the stock and is only a view on personal level of comfort while investing.
Epicore another feed manufacturing co catering to Latin American market comes with record results for the last quarter n the trend expected to continue.
EMS has now engulfed Mexico besides the Thailand it seems auguring well for Indian shrimp n feeed manufacturers.
The macro trend is of developing nations all over the world moving to healthy though expensive non veg items like Shrimp, pork beef etc.
Correction besides Latin America Epicore is also a major supplier of feeds to Asia also.
This augurs well for other feed manufacturers like Avanti Feeds who also should come out with good set of results.
Correction besides Latin America Epicore is also a major supplier of feeds to Asia also.
This augurs well for other feed manufacturers like Avanti Feeds who also should come out with good set of results.
Waterbase has come out with a good set of results.
Avanti being a leader should show higher growth IMHO.
Results are out. Sales are as per Gauravās estimates but profitability is lower - EPS of 77 for FY14
Dividend of Rs 15 per share is a gud development
Results Out. Dividend of 15 Rs/ share. Payout ratio of 19.35%
Q4
Sales at 277.3 cr vs 158.4 cr (YoY) vs 278.7 cr (QoQ)
NP at 14.5 cr vs 6.6 cr (YoY) vs 22.44 cr (QoQ)
OPM at 7.7% vs 8.1% (YoY) vs 11.7% (QoQ)
NPM at 5.23% vs 4.17% (YoY) vs 8.05% (QoQ)
FY14
Sales at 1131.6 cr vs 648 cr
NP at 70.4 cr vs 30.05 cr
OPM at 9.3% vs 7.1%
NPM at 6.2% vs 4.6%