Avanti Feeds

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2346

Q3FY22 concall notes

Revenue guidance for FY23 and FY24? Revenue growth 10-15% in FY23. Current margin is 6%, we are aiming for 10-12% EBITDA margins.

Feed business

  • Fish meal was avg 89rs/kg in FY20, 94rs/kg in FY21 and hit a high of 102 in FY22. Shortage in supply and export demand.

  • Soya meal also increased sharply. Govt permitted imports, suspended trading on NCDEX and good crop, but prices not coming in control. Avg 70rs/kg in 9mFY22 compared to 43rs in FY21. Govt prohibited stocking beyond some level.

  • Wheat flour- less volatile 21-24 rs/kg in 9mFY22

  • Price hike- 8.07rs increased thrice in 9 months- 2+3.15+4.25. RM increased by 10.48rs/kg, leaving 2.41rs gap. Expecting RM to stabilize. Cautious approach to increase price due to govt regulatory constraints. In budget, govt reduced customs duty on feed from 15% to 5%. It was increased to 15% in july 21. Representations made to govt to increase the duty again to protect domestic industry as they are suffering due to feed imports. We are looking into price hike by March first week, working out the amount. Matches with post by @ravurusaipraveen that Avanti Feeds and CP Feeds are increasing feed prices @Rs.4~5/kg from 1/3/22.

  • Outlook- Favourable environment, promising year ahead for shrimp culture. Shrimp production expected to increase to 8Lakh MT as farmgate price at ATH. Feed consumption in India expected to be 12-13 Lakh MT, Avanti expecting 6-6.5 Lakh (growth of 15-20%, maintain market share 48-50%). Industry did 9.55L in 2020, 11L in 2021 (Avanti did 5.36L).

  • Expansion of 1.75L MT with Rs 125cr expected to start in June 2022.

  • Fish feed- Working seriously, process is on. Will take 6 months to 1 year.

  • Third quarter is seasonally weak

Processing

  • 9month income increase 7% due to volumes. Price realization remained at same level. PBT fell 36% qoq due to inclusion of MEIS benefit received in Q2FY22. Excluding MEIS benefit, PBT was flat qoq. PBT fell 19% yoy due to impact of freight cost. Avg freight rate for 9month was 5.41L per container vs 2.67L in FY21.

  • RODTEP- effective jan 21. 18.48 cr benefit in 2021 has not been accounted for and will be accounted when received

  • Recall- June21, Aug21 (expanded). Liable to compensate for destruction charges and replacement. Liable to reimburse medical expenses to customers who fell sick. Co has product liability insurance coverage, but none for replacement etc. These costs were met by co. We made 27.5cr provision. It will take some time for USFDA to close the recall. Shipped 5 containers cooked shrimp to USFDA. Green list will be restored in 45 days and we will be able to accelerate exports to US. We had already made an application to USFDA in June 21 to which they had responded with an additional query. To answer the queries, we have engaged an international food consultant team who analysed our processes and we have created a response to the USFDA. It should be approved in 45-60 days. 25-30% sales are to cooked products. We are focusing on products where we are not on red alert. If there was no red alert, our volumes would be up 10-15%, but we are trying to cover the volumes on our existing products.

  • PLI application- 11 processing units incl Avanti qualified to get 933cr. Each applicant will get 79.44cr. Benefits are for incremental production in 2023.

  • Outlook- Exports from India 6.5L MT in 2021, expecting 7.5-8 L MT, growth of 10-15%. Avanti exported 12219 MT, expecting 13500Mt, growth 10-12%.

  • Capex- 81.32cr to set up pre-processing and processing units with capacity of 7000Mt per year. We are in process of land acquisition so we should be able to start commercial production in 1 year. There was expansion in aug-sept last year in our old unit in Gopalpuram, we increased the production by 12% in 9months.

  • Existing customers have the appetite to take increased production. COVID impacted our growth rate because we are labour intensive industry and there were restrictions in footfall of labours

Salary hike to management? Isnt it better to increase dividend, or do a buyback to reward promoter also? We are giving good dividend and may increase it if performance is good. Salary hike reasons- Whole time directors- Fixed+ % of profits. The limit was fixed long time back at inception of companies act and increase is within companies act limits. Fixed portion increase is to cover increase in cost of living. Companies act is allowing to take more percentage so that is why we are going for an increase (?? beats me!) Work has increased, challenges have increased, competition has increased, expansion is taking place. There are external factors like RM costs that affect the profits. We are paying 43% income tax- it is a constraint. Remuneration has been stagnant over the years. We expect investors to understand and cooperate because we are taking care of you. (didnt sound good to me)

Unlisted Company formed with Thai union. Why is it kept out of Avanti? The business of RBF is manufacture and distribution of food ingredients is much related to poultry meat. Its a trading activity while Avanti is more of manufacturing. 51% held by RBF and 19% by Thai Union so 70% is held by the foreign co and they want to trade their own products under their brand. We will own only 30% stake and management us by them only. They have considered us as partner due to presence in India as a large group. We want to keep our focus on feed and processing rather than getting into altogether new business where we dont have experience. It will be a small business 5-10 cr so we have kept it out. Brands and management are not ours.

Cash level- the high cash level has helped us to buy RM 5% lower because of better payment terms. If this was not available, we would have to borrow from bank and increase cost. There is lot apprehension by banks to give credits because of market situation (???). If we dont have these cash levels, it is very difficult to maintain this level of performance.

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