Few months updates
Sold Nesco in my portfolio in July 2025 with a small profit
In the 2025 annual report, it was mentioned that the IT business would have only ~1.65 million sq. ft. (around 1× the current area) of chargeable area. This brought my CAGR estimate for the stock down to 15%–17%.
I generally invest in stocks only when I see the potential for a 20% CAGR; otherwise, I prefer investing in mutual funds.
However, today when I went through their November presentation, they had changed the total new office leasable area back to 1.5× of the current leasable area (2.25 million sq. ft.), which supports my original buying decision.
I may need to check with the company why they changed it back to 1.5× of the current leasable area.
Sold Anjani Foods
I forgot to mention in my last update that I sold Anjani Foods(1% of my portfolio) at ₹29.20 in June, booking a loss of nearly low double digits, when I suspected that the company might have deployed the funds into its sister company. I was too inclined to invest in micro cap company and hence I invested in it.
Note to self → Need to find multiple candidates to invest before investing in one like I do now
Bought and sold Jayaswal Neco with lower single digit profit in November
It had perfect short-term, medium-term, and long-term triggers. Among the 4–5 companies I was tracking, it had the best set of triggers, and hence I decided to buy it. However, I was not really comfortable with the management and their ethics. As a result, I sold the stock a few days after buying it, booking a low single-digit profit.
Bought and sold Bajaj Housing Finance with lower single digit loss in December
Bajaj Housing Finance did not follow my rule of investing in stocks only when I can see more than 20% profit growth.
Though I invested in it as an alternative to a mutual fund at ₹97, with an estimated long-term profit growth of around 15%, I did not feel comfortable because I was aware that I had bought it at a premium valuation. Additionally, after analyzing why other stocks in the sector were falling—primarily due to competition from banks in housing loans, as banks have a lower cost of capital than HFCs—I sold it a few days after purchasing it.
Bought IEX in my sister portfolio at 135
I bought IEX in my sister’s portfolio (a comparatively very small portfolio) after having bought and sold it within a few days in my own portfolio. The main reason for buying it again was my belief that coupling of RTM is not technically feasible without a common platform. If RTM were to be coupled across exchanges, Grid India would need to act as the common matchmaker, which I believe is less probable as Grid India is a government body.
Additionally, the downside appeared to be protected.
RTM(more than 30 percent of the total revenue now) is the sector that is growing with more than 30-40% percent and will keep growing as more renewable energy comes on grid, as it is used to balance the frequency.
Other growth triggers
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BESS making more capacity available, filling supply gap in night- medium term and big trigger
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Renewable energy coming live - short term and big trigger
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BESS charging and discharging over the grid as seen in european countries - medium term and small trigger
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Peak demand increase due to GST cuts, 6th pay commission and AI boom - medium term and medium trigger
PE expansion possible
At 24 forward PE(135 Rs), considering DAM as well as RTM get coupled, they are trading at 40 PE currently, considering they are able to maintain a near 50 percent market share(which they are able to maintain in other similar segments)
Considering the new regulation of reducing the commission from Rs 2 to 1.5 Rs. They are trading at 50 PE. In the worst possible case, I don’t think there would be any PE expansion. They can be 20% compression, though. 
Though if RTM is not coupled(technically not possible without a common platform), we are up for the surprise. Due to growth in the RTM market, they would be able to maintain a lot of their market share in the DAM market even after coupling. Why?
- There is a concept of margin needed to buy electricity, and users will not find it comfortable to maintain a margin across different platforms. Also, in the DAM market, it takes hours for the margin to get released in DAM market. IEX might provide an option to use this margin in the RTM market. This is not possible in other exchanges. (Need to check with IEX management, how many customers who trade inthe DAM market trade electricity in the RTM market)
- I also feel there are fewer chances for the competition from a pricing point of view, as PTC can not procure electricity from HPX(its own exchange), and hence reducing price on HPX will make their competitor broker business more profitable. Other than that when the price of the TAM will be reduced to 1.25 paisa per unit from 2 paisa. HPX’s bottom line will be impacted the most, as TAM revenue is a large part of the revenue, which can make them loss making company. I don’t feel PXIL competes that aggressively by comparing the membership fees of three exchanges. Also, I feel that now, reducing the price further(from 1.5 paisa per unit) of the DAM market, the exchanges would just reduce the market size, which might impact them more negatively than simply trying to gain market share using other ways.
- Familarity with the tech platform
- Tech integration with different brokers for 20 percent of the revenue. Maybe DISCOM might also have some integration. (Need to check with the IEX management)
- IEX has been gaining market share in the TAM market which is analogous to coupling.
Valuation
Fair though it can get more fair in 1 year or so.
Debt
No
Margin expansion
Negligible. Though present after commission drops to 1.5 paisa per unit.
Stage analysis
Stage 1
Optionality
Other exchanges of the IEX
Negatives
Market coupling and the reduction in the commission.
Conclusion - It might take a few months to 1 year for these negatives to settle, after which all the IEX will have a better growth rate(due to a bigger base of RTM) and just triggers.
It might also give us a better price to build a position, and then maybe I will build a position in it.
Normally, I avoid companies with headwinds like IEX.
Hence will wait until things become favorable and negatives settle down or play out.
International Stock portfolio
Sold all my international stock in December which consisted of Alphabet, Amazon and Alibaba to reduce compliance issue in filing ITR.
Portfolio performance in 2025
Year 2025 have been good for me and the most of the returns came from the portfolio that I don’t discuss here that is gold and us portfolio.
I had high single digit SGB in my portfolio which nearly doubled.
Nasdaq 100 based Indian mutual funds and the international stock exposure gave a lot of gain in 2025 which had low teens allocation at the start of the 2025.
Maharastra Scooters gave good returns.
My indian mutual fund which is dominated by parag parikh tax saver also gave positive returns.
Mutual fund updates
Started investing in small caps through the helios small cap fund.
Happy new year Valuepickers.
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