I see the keyword hope in many stocks, back these hopes by number, one can’t be investd more than 10-20% in turn around stories!
I also see under valued, undervalued is also a recipe for disaster in stock market!
Market don’t give value to low quality stocks at the same time I have seen companies enjoying 30-40 + PE for almost a decade!
So irrespective of the stocks, your reasoning is flawed at the least!
Also one don’t write test, they write tracking & then they don’t include that in their portfolio, because it ain’t!
I would advice you to read quality books, listen to esteem investors & their philosophy, learn about fundamental research
Thank you, appreciate your suggestion. Bata is less than 0.25% of my portfolio, I am not even tracking it, probably shouldn’t have mentioned it. Since, i dont intend to add it. Slightly, disagree on the hope bit since markets are forward looking, they run on hope, anticipation, earnings guesstimate. Also, there is already a big debate on growth investing thvs value investing. Some say growth is component of value, so yes some might sustain higher PEs for decades. And finally no one knows what Mr. Market is upto. Happy investing
Go easy buddy !! Your tone isn’t appropriate. He is asking for help. In market everyone learns gradually and learning never ends. Noone can tell exactly what will happen with market or a company in future. Even promoters don’t know what they are capable of. Aditya Puri wasn’t sure he would make HDFC this big. Respect others views.
Even I maybe wrong. But how I see those biggies invest is they keep the least to probability!
So in turn these hopeful stocks require more time & effort, you need to monitor them more aggressively, which goes against the capacity of individual investors, you would then eventually have to hire analysts to do your work!
Do read the thread on coffee can investing & learn as much you can from the best people in this community
Np bro. I will definitely read that up, however tend to lean more on Ben Graham/chandrakant sampat (although it is widely believed thats a thing of the past) more than Saurabh Mukherjea :). But yeah, completely take your point on the effort and time needed and hence not being a viable approach. Cheers!
Thanks for sharing your stock selection and articulation. IMO, before seeking stock specific advice an investor must have following answers to the questions ready:
What is your financial goals trying to achieve?
What is your asset allocation based on your risk profile?
How much you are planning your Networth to be exposed to equities?
Have you estimated the potential risks, opportunity cost vis-a-vis your equity investments?
More importantly your time horizon for investing and sticking to your defined investing objectives.
Overall portfolio management strategy and risk mitigation plan.
Having above plan in place will ensure smooth ride over long run.
Next comes the specific feedback to stock selections. According to me and generally speaking over a last decade TCS, HDFC group, Bata, ITC demonstrated consistent performance. Rest of other stocks you need to monitor closely to avoid pain and heartburn. Find time to read many valuable threads in VP especially wizard of VP: Hitesh and Donald’s thread.
Happy investing!
VK
Disc.: invested in some of the above names in my PF.
Oracle financial- your rationale is cloud, however as per my limited understanding the listed Oracle financial is an ERP and not cloud part of Oracle. Pls correct me if wrong.
Delta is debt free, significant lands,assets, close to 400-500 Cr of cash in the portfolio and has growing online gaming business (Adda52) which is clocking 40 Cr of quarterly revenue and growing at over 30%. So even if casinos/Goa tourism don’t open, it may be able even with only online business in 3-4 quarters. Also they have been reducing costs in a big way. While they posted a loss in Q1, I remain bullish and rerating may happen much before the opening of physical assets.
Thanks for this, however this “Cloud” looks little misleading in terms of what we as investors are looking for. Not that the company wanted to mislead but seems we ourselves are getting the wrong connection. This “Cloud” looks to me as an extention of the Oracle Apps Finance …something like an Oracle Fusion or its big brother SAP HANA. These are the ERPs answer to the digital age so that they don’t die and remain meaningful…but in essence these are but ERP packages only and not a Cloud/Digital new age technology. These IT companies place the revenues from such apps under digital segment though but these are actually no new revenue sources but rather can be taken as clients adopting to new versions of ERP packages from these providers. So, in actuality, these are revenues from ERP stream for all such IT companies and I would not take them as a new age digital tech.
You are absolutely right. Digital revenues are skewed to show growth at times. Also, agree on the fact that too much should not be read into above snippet. Other facts I like, 1) cash on the books 2) Promoter holding 3) Dividend Payout 4) PE under 20.
Regret: Did not add when it was available at approx. 50% of the price today.
Indeed, Oracle does have a good foothold in Finance part of ERP, specially Banking. I am really not sure how SAP could not be leader in this segment of ERPs
There are always dips available for buying excellent businesses if you believe in them and once in a while crashes to add more…I have bought some excellent businesses at double and even triple my initial buy price and at hindsight feel that was a good decision to buy them at such higher prices than buying anything else. Not recommending to buy Oracle now but just a perspective that its never too late to enter or add more for the right business…all the best
Hey It was good to interact on oracle, thought to put some more etime and write my thoughts on your picks -
ITC - It is not undervalued but indeed a good business to invest
L&T - Again, I do not think it is undervalued considering the economy/infra situation and uncertainty. A fine business but look at it this way, even L&T wanted to derisk themself from infra and hence gave birth to LTI and LTTS and even LTFH…so why invest in a business for long term in which the company itself does not believe in as their business of future…
TCS - Behemoth indeed. Mr Mukesh Ambani missed the IT services in 1970s, he is not going to miss the digital again. The way Jio is galloping makes you want more from these Indian IT companies. Still agree its a great company and has beaten stagnation many times before…to my surprises.
OFSS - Decent company. MNC. Leader in a sub segment. I would definitely be a buyer in crashes and admit I too missed it. Not sure about buying now…
Quick heal - I completely agree on your vision for cyber security but have huge doubts if a company like Quick Heal will fulfill those ambitions. It is not a market leader (pls correct me if wrong). With Windows 10, Apple and Linux…the operating systems are getting stronger day by day and more secure. Windows defender does a decent job as compared to some basic antiviruses. Also, if I am too much concerned about security, I wouldnt mind paying extra to get the best than settle for a second best.
Delta - Never tracked, not aware
IDFC First - It is not undervalued. There are specific reasons for its valuations. I had held it for a very very long time because of same reasons but Q after Q same story repeated itself. I lost significant opportunities and gained patience in IDFC First. Also realized that management likes saying same things every Q and I don’t like listening them anymore, so sold out.
Thyrocare - This is a wonder company for me because many times when I listen or read about its founder, I wonder. Therefore, i stayed away so far, I maybe wrong.
HDFC LTD. - Although best, still a lending NBFC. Hold for long term but with caution.
Bata India - I think its a leader. Good Brand. As it is into retail stores (capital intensive if self owned), some risks maybe involved. Not tracked much.
HDFC Bank - Been a good bank, but we must always remember it lends money so hod for long term with caution.
Disc: Above all are purely my thoughts and interpretations and I maybe totally wrong. Not a recommendation to buy/sell.
