ValuePickr Forum

Arun's Portfolio

Hello people…

I was in equity market between 2005 to 2010. I was investing in small quantities. Then there was a break of 6 years, during which I mainly invested only through Mutual Fund SIP. In last couple of years, I have started diving more into equity. I am a Data Analyst by profession & so have naturally taken to the technical analysis as well in my investing decision. No one can time the market but investing with a touch of technical analysis has helped me overcome the pitfall year like 2018.

Below is my portfolio :

Any comments/feedbacks/suggestions welcomed.

Mutual Funds : 15% (Lumpsums : Opportunity fund & small cap)

Equity :

  1. RITES - Zero debt,Niche PSU with huge margin consulting. Metro, Railways, station construction, leasing, exports of wagons etc…
  2. BEML - Entered at 730 - Railways & defense sector - huge beneficiary with metros. When the new govt comes in, can expect order book to increase. Now also foraying into defense
  3. IDFC First Bank - Believe in Vaidyanthan to create a giant banking business out of this - 5 year pick
  4. Surya Roshni - Consumer discretionary. Growing order book with govt projects. 18 month view. Value play.
  5. Merck - MNC pharma. Delighted me this quarter with a 440Rs one time dividend. Long term hold
  6. Star Cement - NE based. Has pricing power in its market.
  7. Jtekt India - Auto ancillary. Betting on the Japanese MNC parent who have now bought out current holders. 3 years story at least.
  8. M&M - Large Cup compounder
  9. L&T - Large cap compounder
  10. Sun Pharma - I know about its corporate governance issues but can’t resist it at 420Rs
  11. Insecticides India - Growth story. 18 months view for now.
  12. Gallantt Ispat - Steel. UP based Steel player. Impressive growth with profitability in last 3 years. Huge capex plans, Good capital allocation. Some concerns around possible stock price manipulation. SEBI had it in their shell company list but have cleared them since. The sheer numbers, growth of this company is still keeping me invested in this.
  13. Innovators Facade - SME Microcap. Tracked since its SME IPO. Has completed good projects. Vijay Kedia anchor investor (upped his stake for last 3 continuous quarter. Kela also joined in recently). Professional management changes recently. IPO bucks used now to bring modern machinery. Great Moat in Facade industry. 3 year bet at least when I hope it qualifies for main board.
4 Likes

With real estate continuing to be in bad shape how will innovator facade a service provider to real estate do well in near term?
Is any of innovators competitor company listed.
Also can you share what parameters it needs to meet to move to main board.

For Innovators I can’t see any competitors listed in India… In fact I’m trying to check globally also but couldn’t find comparable one. Can any respected board members have any details for benchmarking…

Also, iI couldn’t find q3 results so far… Is SME companies reporting mecanisum is any different with other companies.

Disclaimer : Invested and trying to add as and when opportunity comes.

I think we need to assess microcap story of Innovators facade as a stand alone instead of trying to compare it with real estate sector.

First of all it has a great moat in that it works in facade designs & implementation. They also work on airport facades. Unlike other Infra players, they dont get dragged into permissions, approvals issue on land etc, given , Facades are done for the nearly finished high end buildings.

As per their IPO prospectus, they will use the money for buying machines to automate their glass cutting & other manual processes.

Their work includes Lodha world tower and few key buildings. Facade of every building wont be same so work involves niche facade design work. There is no listed peer and most facade companies are unlisted & unorganised. They are supposed to be getting deliveries of their machines in Dec 2018. So, they should start using them by now. As per mgmt, growth depends on these automations as currently they are having to say no to new work. By automating , they improve their efficiency of transporting finished products just in time .

As for as swtich to main board , there are set rules. I think most important is to show 3 years of consistent profit (I think PBT) of 10 crore or more.

2 Likes

6 months on previous post…

Since election, I have I had sold (booked profit or got out of it, before suffering big losses) most of my portfolio, only keeping just 1 in. My view of investment is 6 months to 3 years. I take fundamental & technical view before investing.

This is my current portfolio. I was on 50% cash. In last week, deployed 20% and sitting on 30% more.

I know my portfolio doesnt have much of BFSI and also bit Auto heavy. Personally, believe the autos have corrected enough. I have started nibbling in. I have entered to business which are debt free-rich in cash. Only exception is JK tyre (given my reasons).

Feedback appreciated.

Also, my watchlist :

IDFC First Bank
HDFC Life
Tata Steel
Axis Bank
Ashok Leyland
Sirca Paints

Updated Portfolio :

image

Booked profits in RITES and have subscribed for few lots of IRCTC.
Fingers crossed for allocation - but seems a tall order.

Tracking :
i) IDFC First
ii) Unichem Labs
iii) Neuland Labs
iv) ION Exchange

When I started, I thought long term but acted short term view. I got nowhere but in a tough 2018, but I did preserve my capital on the downside. I recognise that my churn ratio is rather high. So, I have put some thought into the version 2.0. I am hoping, I have the patience and tolerance to get through the tough periods and hopefully make reasonable returns without churns.

Any specific reason for shortlisting KVB and canara bank?

Canara Bank -
This is more of a technical analysis positional buy. I tend to use technical analysis for my entry points. It is currently at multi year lows on a monthly level. Every time, its been on these levels on monthly scale, stock has given good upside over next 6 to 18 months. Having said, I am not going in all in. I have nibbled in with small quantities.
On business fronts, I know there are NPAs. But I believe it will soon get out of that cycle. Also, Canfin home 30% stake sales will add 1500-2000Cr to kitty as well.

Karur Vysya Bank -
Their NPAs in last few quarters have been dreadful. But they have over the quarters have emphasised the work they do on their risk assessment. They are moving from decentralised to centralised risk assessment procedures. They have scaled back on their growth in last couple of quarters to get to tie up their corporate book. On other hand, they are scaling up their retail. They have digitised their loan process overall even to MSME sector. Also, they usually compete in same geographies & demographics as LVB (both are from Karur). So, If LVB go further downhill, IMO, should help KVB in some meaningful way on the ground. Stock level perspective, again, this is at good monthly support levels.

1 Like

I had held KVB during my last SIP cycle and it gave fairly decent returns and i sold off when it was near all time high :slight_smile:

The downfall from then was continuing for very long time. i agree LVB fall must be KVB gain & at the same time they have to rein on NPAs.

1 Like
  1. Booked out 50% profits in Rites
  2. Unfortunately could not get a single lot in IRCTC. Now, Its pointless to get in it at these valuations.
  3. Added newly into Tata Steel

Updated Portfolio :

image

Tracking :
i) IDFC First
ii) Unichem Labs
iii) Neuland Labs
iv) ION Exchange