Hi ,
I have been investing for the last 6 years & i’m a silent reader in valuepickr for almost 4 years.I’m working in MNC & investing part-time . Most of my readings for indian market are from valuepickr
My portfolio is listed below
| stock |
category |
percentage allocation |
investment rationale |
Risks |
| HDFC bank |
financials |
10% |
consistent compounder, 20% growth YOY like clock work, low npa (historicaly), 50% of loan book is retail |
Covid impact on loan npa , credit card ban by RBI, tech outage |
| Manappuram finance |
|
8% |
No:2 player in gold finance (zero npa in gold ) , valuations looks cheap |
MFI book is risky + banks & fintech players trying to have pie on gold finance |
| muthoot finance |
|
8% |
No:1 player in gold finance (zero npa in gold ) |
banks & fintech players trying to have pie on gold finance |
| KPIT |
IT/ER&D |
14% |
self driving & electrification of automobiles is the emerging industry . KPIT have tie up with some of the big car brands in europe for ADAS, powertrain etc. only other listed firm in india is tata elxsi |
solutions have to be at par with Tesla, Google waymo for ADAS |
| intellect design(recent entry) |
IT/BFSI |
10% |
One of the few IT product companies listed in India . Saas + AMC (recurring revenue with not much expense) is already at 40% of revenue. IGCB & IGTB is in monetization phase. ISEEC is yet to win big deals. As intelect wins more deals , operating leverage will kick in & eps will grow very quickly . management guided for 10% revenue growth & 30% eps growth for next 2-3 years (my estimates are even higher). Global peers are trading at much higher valuations |
operating leverage will kick in only if they are able to win more deals . Licensing revenue means revenue growth is lumpy |
| Mastek (recent entry) |
IT |
4% |
Digital transformation + cloud . Acqusition of evosys ( oracle cloud player) helps in cross selling. Management is honest & transparent. |
?? |
| Borosil (SIP) |
consumer durable |
7% |
honest management . Growing opalware business + growing consumer durables business . Looking for 15-20% CAGR |
Covid impact & lockdown on business |
| V guard |
consumer durable |
7% |
growing electical/ electrical business. Entry into new business segments in consumer durables every year (water heater, cooktop, air cooler etc ) . Expecting 15-20% cagr |
high competition |
| granules (recent entry after correction) |
|
4% |
bulk drug manufacturer. Trying to have formulations which should improve margins going forward.management looking for 20% revenue & PAT growth . PE looks cheap compared to growth projections |
raw material price increase on bulk drugs |
| US portfolio |
|
|
|
|
| Alpahabet |
|
15% |
search +youtube + hardware+ playstore is contributing to the earnings now. 3rd biggest player in cloud & growing fast (40% almost) but now running at a loss. Google Cloud should turn profitable in a few years.Lot of unmonetized assets like WAYMO ( self driving) , google maps , android , fitbit acquisition. Leading player in AI (Deep mind) |
?? |
| salesforce |
|
7% |
No :1 cloud CRM player . Plans to grow revenue by 100% by 2025. cheaper compared to other cloud players in P/S ratio because of nearterm impact on earnings due to slack acquisition |
Lots of acquistions by salesforce which is a major risk |
| wisdom tree cloud etf ( recent entry) |
|
6% |
cloud is the growing segment in IT |
valuations are very high |
please give your views & suggestions .
Thanks
Arun
Hi Arun, Thank you for sharing. I am also in the same boat. Just a quick question, how do you invest in the US Stock Markets?
Thank You,
Karan Khanna
Hi Karan , You can start a trading account through ameritrade or etrade for investing in US.
I’m investing through etrade as i also have a corporate account with them (for RSU).
Groww also started US stock trading , if my information is correct.
1 Like
Quarterly result update:
Mastek :
• 40 new clients in Q1FY22 . Total client count was 651 (LTM) as compared to 639 (LTM) in Q4FY21.
• 12 month order backlog was Rs 1,177.7 crore ($158.4mn) as on 30th June, 2021 as compared to Rs 1,130.4 crore ($154.6mn) in Q4FY21 (constant currency growth 2.1% Q-o-Q & 45.5% Y-o-Y)
• Net Cash balance is Rs 702.9 crore as on 30th June, 2021 as compared to Rs 588.6 crore on 31st March, 2021
• 510 headcount added during the quarter (net of attrition)
Disclosure: Added more (1%) on day after result at 2520 range . 5% of my pf (avg price 2219)
KPIT :
Q1FY22 USD Revenue grows 18.3% YoY & 4.3% QoQ.
PAT growth 150 % YoY & 14% QoQ.
employee count increased from 6564 to 6806 YoY (proxy for growth in service IT company)
Guidance : mid teens revenue growth & 16.5% - 17% ebitda margin which is significantly higher than 14.3% & 15.7% margins in Q2,Q3 FY21… which means PAT should grow by at least 25-30% in next 2 quarters YoY.
Growth across business segments:
Disclosure: Trimmed 35% of my allocation to KPIT in last quarter. 9% of my pf . Avg price 78.
Intellect:
revenue up by 18% YoY, EBITDA up by 48% YoY , Net Profit up by 73% YoY
License Revenue up by 32% YoY, AMC Revenue up by 8% YoY, SaaS revenue up by 102% YoY.
AMC + SaaS at ~40% of revenue (revenue recurring every year without much work)
10 Digital led wins including 5 large Digital Transformation deal wins.
Guidance:
Revenue: Mid-high teens revenue growth
Earnings : 25-30% growth trajectory
Ebitda Margin : 25 to 30%
Disclosure : 12% of PF . avg price : 742
1 Like
Exited KPIT completely as valuation seems stretched around 650 during January end(was exiting partially from 240 onwards. (looking back exiting KPIT at 240 onwards was a mistake . i was early … but gradual sell off as well as gradual buys help me average out the fluctuations & help me capture the upside to some extent . 50% of my stake was sold in january at 650 when i thought valuation was stretched much beyond i was comfortable).
Adding money to intellect design but very slowly as it crossed my 10% limit . Max portfolio allocation limit is 15% & intellect is inching slowly towards that. So buying only during significant corrections like that seen in early march .
Started positions in US facing etfs:
Motilal oswal nasdaq100 : 8%
MAFANG : 4%
US equity has corrected more than india & is now comparatively reasonably valued .Will add more if there is more correction.
Started positions in FB around $220 …
I feel FB is cheap even with IOS headwinds .
FB Positives :
** Buybacks have accelerated & they will be buying back at these cheap valuations.*
** FB has a FCF of $40 billion even with heavy spending on metaverse & virtual reality & apple headwinds.*
** Whatsapp monetization not yet started (they can easily convert it into super app + payment gateway + ecommerce etc)*
** Instagram is the most popular social media website for millenials & GenZ…*
** Fb is morphing into a ecommerce site (similar to craigslist) with facebook market place & FB groups .*
** optionality with metaverse & VR/AR ecosystem*
cash position : 20% of net worth ( My networth is fully in equity + cash + RSU from company i work… very bold … keeping significant portion in cash to prevent from being going bankrupt 
)
(waiting for correction on nasdaq otherwise will keep in cash as buffer).
