Aptus Value Housing : Is valuation justified or just another HFC?

Brilliant thread, my two cents on some of the things discussed here. (I’m relatively new to this so would appreciate being told where I’m wrong.)

  • Valuations are steep, but in my opinion, this is the kind of business that you won’t get cheap (as was for Aavas). Considering the fact that the firm is lightly leveraged on a relative basis and we’re only entering a real estate boom, I think current valuations can be taken as close to a base case since a lot of growth is possible + one would give a premium given the return ratios and management quality.

  • I do not agree with the notion that the loan book is unsafe. On the contrary, low GNPAs and decent collections both here and in Aavas show that the borrowers are less likely to default, hence the premium valuation given to both. But even more importantly, Aavas ensures that borrowers have sufficient skin in the game- their LTVs range from 35-40% against an average of 68% for low-income HFCs. That by itself probably makes this one of the safer HFCs to bet on.

Disclosure- Only have a tracking position, praying for it to come down to <5 times book

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Hi,

Valuations is a subjective matter so one should do what one is comfortable with. Valuation for financial institutions is more about trust in the company because you never know when NPAs can surface (not suggesting is the case here) and hence every now and then one gets an opportunity to enter financials at decent valuation, i am in the group who would prefer to wait. I am OK to payup for high quality manufacting/product/service company but not financials, just my thought not suggesting it is the only way. Thanks.

I couldn’t agree more.

Even Aptus has loan to value (LTV) of 38.84% for home loan, 38.24% for LAP and 39.03% for business loans. Given that they are not doing builder/developer loans, even I don’t think the loan book is unsafe.

My $0.02 on valuations: Firstly valuation is subjective so this is just an opinion- I see Aptus as being very similar to Aavas in multiple ways. Whereas Aavas is at 8.5x price/book v/s 6.9x for Aptus. I am personally comfortable paying these valuations for Aptus.

Disc- invested

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Of course, that makes sense, better to keep a higher MoS in financials. I personally would love to buy it cheaper too, which is why I only have a tracking position- just a lil unsure if it’ll ever go there.

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I don’t see any concern here. Aavas too has similar PCR around 25%
Aavas:

Aptus:

Disc- invested in Aptus. No holdings in Aavas.

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One of the big aspects to monitor for me going forward is the entry of Aavas in Karnataka with 11 branches, commenced operations in 2021:

Aavas is a very strong company in my opinion. I will be closely tracking Aavas’s branch expansion in Karnataka and any potential competition to Aptus.

Disc- invested in Aptus. No holdings in Aavas.

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Hello all. I am sharing the Q2 and H1 FY 22 concall transcript for Aptus with some annotated highlights (on important points) I have made. Aptus-Value-Housing-Finance-India-Ltd-Investor-Call-Transcript-Q2-H1FY22.pdf (263.9 KB)

The raw transcript (without annotations) is at https://aptusindia.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Aptus-Value-Housing-Finance-India-Ltd-Investor-Call-Transcript-Q2-H1FY22.pdf

Disc- invested

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Industry and initiating coverage report by Monarch Capital

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Some notes from Aptus Q3 concall:

Entering Orissa in this quarter

25-30% growth expected

Majority of growth expected from existing branches

2% is processing fees- 1% upfront and 1% at time of disbursement

Rejection rate is around 15% for home loans, 22-23% for non-home loans. Also there are some cases where it is not outright rejection of loan application but there is downsizing, i.e. customer asks for Rs 10 lakh loan but company disburses only 7 or 8 lakh. Downsizing is another 8%

They are using AI/ML to predict bounce rates based on data points like sourcing stream, product, pin code of customer etc. These findings are then taken to the underwriting team to improve the asset quality of loans disbursed.

Link for concall is Aptus Value Housing Finance India Ltd Q3 FY22 Earnings Concall - YouTube

Disc- invested

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The recent Dolat capital report shows that Aptus doesn’t have much digital connect with their customers. Barely 1% of their customer base have downloaded their mobile application (vs 70% for Aavas and 86% for Homefirst). How is this possible?

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Yes, this is a big concern for me as well. Even many of the reviews on Google play store are very poor:

The Aptus E Seva app has around 1000 to 5000 downloads but given AVHF’s customer base of 72000, this seems low. Though, what it could also potentially mean is that in the past, most of the loans to the existing customer base were sourced from branches but going forward, they want to focus more on the app. It is definitely an anti-thesis point for me.

Disc- invested

I have a contrarian view here.

Yes Aptus has poor connection with App. But Aavas and HFFC are no good. They are charging for statement download(You can go over the reviews of aavas and HFFC).

What good these apps do? What customer do with this app? What does HFC do with this app? Will customer onboard to HFC based on apps? Can they source using this app? Does any of the customers who gave bad reviews in playstore have changed their loan to other HFCs just because they cannot login to the app?

When you look into commentary of CanFin homes you can see this, they are not even focused on this. I understand all the companies need to pivot to tech. But the tech which HFCs need is their backend, not their front ends. Even when lead is happening through any tech apps, all their activities still need human touch to verify the property.

Housing loans are the last place among other loans where customers need an app to track.

Disc: Bullish on Aptus, but not invested since i already have position in Home First

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Initiating coverage report by Dalal & Broacha

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In previous management call, they keep on iterating that they dont have any writeoff in any of their loans. So does that mean whatever provision they create as part of ECL, they are writtenback?

Any red flags? stock is in a downward journey, and I see co. is posted a decent results in previous quarters and the public share weigtage is about only 4% approx excluding big percentage investors, with all above factors price should nt see steep decline.

please help at this.

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Mr Anandan did an interview with Money Purse in Telugu in Aug 21,
Here’s the transcript of the same.

Overview of Aptus -
Provide home loans to retail (largely from lower/middle income) who are self-employed staying in lower tier towns, loan size - 5L -25L
Avg loan - 9L, avg EMI - Rs 12500.
The loan is provided mostly for building a house on customer-owned land (Self Construction) in tier 3,4.

Banks/Large HFCs are present in the higher loans segment and metros/towns but not present in the affordable segment. They don’t service Tier3/4 towns. They avoid this segment as they cannot service last mile customers i.e. go to customers’ homes, do not lend to people who are new to credit (no cibil) and can’t lend without proofs like IT returns and bank statements.
The above borrowers who are not serviced by the big players we are servicing.
There is a perception that lending to lower strata is high risk and high bad debt, hence big players stay away. If we can find borrowers while doing well for themselves in their businesses but are avoided by other financiers as they are not accessible then lending to such borrowers is a lucrative opportunity.

It is important to provide loans to such borrowers as no other bank/HFC will approach the person and building a home is important for low/middle-income borrowers. People in medium to high income, the accessibility for house loans is easier and even if the requirement for a loan is not there, the big HFC/banks will be approaching you by calls/SMS/branches.

Aptus Business Model is 100% in-house - from sourcing loans, credit underwriting, legal, valuation of homes, and collection.
With 2000 staff and 90 branches, 150 in head office, remaining 1850 in 90 branches with separate persons for sales, credit disbursal, legal and collection all working under branch manager.
Every 80-100 km we have branches, planning to expand more.

We go to the borrowers’ business place and check who in the borrowers’ family are earning members, we sit for a few hours and check how many customers the borrower is having, how much and what stock is present in conducting the business of the borrower. Monthly bills related to purchases by the borrower to conduct his business, if they are present, we will collect such information as that gives us an idea of how much business the borrower is doing. We also spent time at the current home of the borrower as well, what type of vehicle they own 2/3/4 wheeler. How many children do they have? what school do children go to? what is the electricity bill? to understand the standard of living? who all are earning and dependent members? Location of property?

Prefer to lend if the land is already owned by the borrower, for an average construction cost of 12L we provide a loan of 8-9L. The total value of the property comes to 12L(land)+12L(construction). At 8L, we have enough margin of safety, and one of the reasons why we have low NPA.

75 out of 100, Emi gets cleared by bank debit/cheques/nach. 20 need to be collected by cash.
5 have an issue in paying EMI. In this situation, we can enforce legal means, we initiate legal means, not with the intention to repossess the property but to bring the borrower to the table and make him clear pending dues. 4 out of 5 usually clear their Emi at this juncture. 1 however goes to NPA. but in the entire 10 years, we have to date auctioned off not more than 15 properties.
Reason for low auctioning - we try to educate the defaulting borrower that there is more loss in auctioning property as auction means u will not get the market price of the house. also, we include neighbors/friends and relatives as a last resort to sell the property at market price and repay the loan.

Talks about IT - there are around 300 collection staff, as MD from my system, I can track all 300 collections, and see who all customers he has met, and how much km he has traveled by tracking via an app.
We try to keep operating expenses low. one example is creating a pre-defined route for the field team for customer visits.

Documentation is done in the local language, not English, and staff are all locally hired.
Try to have customer complaints in app/branch and proper redressal system with escalations from branch manager up till myself (MD).

Building a good relationship with customers is very important in this business, doing good to them helps us as it creates more value by them referring their friends/relatives also to Aptus for loan requirements.

Talks about assets quality and loan growth despite Marco headwinds (covid 1,2) and issues faced by HFCs like dewan.

Question on Business Loans
Business Loans is LAP; business loan customers’ profile is different from house loan customers’ profile.
Home Loans at 14% and Business Loans at 21%, blend 17-17.5%
Business Loans avg 7L, around 5-15L disbursals.
21% looks optically high but talks about competitions like 5-star finance, SCUF, Muthoot and manapurram all charge over 21% around 24-27%
Only Fullerton and HDB charge around 18-21%.
Also talks about Aavas, tell that we have business loans in our book which increased our blended yield higher than pure play HFC like Aavas. resulting in higher Roa.

Question on High Equity base
IPO proceeds increased equity further, not leveraging equity by taking additional debt -
Reason - 500 cr from IPO came only at 3-4% dilution, however not required in the next two to three years, but still listed.
Being unlisted for 10 years to a listed company now, there is higher respect for being listed by banks, rating agencies, Mutual Funds, Insurance, and Foreign institutions. We can diversify funding sources. A listed co can also attract good talent.
With higher equity (500 cr from IPO) and lower gearing, there is now scope for a rating upgrade. cost of funds will come down by 1-1.5% if an upgrade happens.
Insurance companies have mandate to only lend to the highest rated nbfc, and when we get an upgrade we get to diversify our liability base which will also help in reducing COF.
Even though ROE comes down due to equity raise, COF reduction will compensate for the ROE drop.

Question on TAT as HomeFirst does in 48hr.
We use technology only when we feel relevant,
Tech used on customer acquisition, customer service, underwriting, collection, dashboard, AI analytics, and cheque bounce forecasting.
For salaried class providing loans via online using bank statements can result in lower tat and customer prefer faster TAT, but in our business, from the time customer application, we can provide sanction in 4-5 days. however, we spend the next 7-8 days doing due diligence starting with a visit to the sub registrar’s office for land documents, legal team will check the land records and create the mortgage, checking for existing encumbrance.
Documents to be collected from Govt. offices and doing due diligence on this will take time. Talks about how each state they are in, the quality of sub-registrar offices and land records, and sale deeds are different, so can’t paint all with one brush. First, the Govt. should push the land ownership online, then we can leverage technology. as of the date it’s not there hence will take additional days to do our checks and only after due diligence is completed will disbursement happen.

Question on Geographical expansion and why avoid Kerala?
I love Keralites, was also on board in manapurram,
but we avoid Kerala as there many local banks like Dhan Lakshmi, federal, south Indian as well biggest gold loans Muthoot and Manapurram who have HFC companies in them. plus, Kerala as a state the demand for housing is fully met by all the existing players. we will relook at the Kerala opportunity at later date.
Do not believe in an all india company tomorrow, with 190 branches you can have 5-10 branches in all states, but we would prefer to be no 1 a geography and then only expand. We would like to grow more in AP, TS, and KA. we are also looking at 3 more states in MH, CH, and OR as they are adjacencies to our existing states. prefer to have deeper penetration than expansive reach.

Question on why should investors invest in aptus?
We are a High-quality co that can deliver consistent growth for long periods of time and will continue to have good asset quality with low NPA.
We have a high level of productivity leading to low operating costs. all resulting in higher ROA, and high ROE.
We are having good corp governance, very transparent, 0 related party, 0 unrelated diversification, Big 4 auditors, broad is very experienced and diversified.
Our market is still underserved and good runway to grow, we understand this business and have a management team to execute and deliver.

Question on Succession planning
None of my family members want to join the business after me, So the board will identify and select a professional, it will be professionally run and, I would be only an investor after I exit.

Youtube Link: APTUS "0" Bad Debt ఎలా Maintain చేయ్యగలుగుతుంది? Grow అవ్వడానికి ఉన్న Scope గురించి తెలుసుకోండి - YouTube

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@Akshat_PI thanks for the thread.
can you compare Aptus with SRG housing finance?

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No idea on what they are trying to do. One year back they raised fund with fresh issue, now with dividend. Not sure of thought process behind that.

Even a big profitable banks need Capital… Is Aptus surplus of capital???

Aptus currently has very high capital and its current CRAR is 80%. Company currently growing its book at 30% and doing RoE of 15%, So to support remaining 15% growth capital is needed. In my personal opinion i feel 80% to too high and even with growth in mind 50% is enough. But management knows that CRAR for them is higher even before IPO and still they went on to raise fresh capital of 500 Cr and 1 year later giving back as dividend. Need to see, if current dividend is one time event or recurring dividends

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