You need to look at seasonality - this is a business where you need to compare YoY and not QoQ.
- Raipur and Dubai impact will be visible in FY25. Volumes are very low in the larger picture, primarily due to capacity constraint.
I would compare YoY always and the actual revenue and EBITDA growth. If Steel prices are higher vs last year, they will also make more revenue/EBITDA.
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I may be wrong but if steel (their raw material) prices have decreased then their profit margin should be more.
Normally their 3rd quarter is always subdued and 4th quarter is always good. If this persists then this is the right time to accumulate more shares.
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Assuming q3 ebitda/ton nos, should do a Q4 ebitda of 300-320 crs. 12% jump qoq. Value add at 60%
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